Generations,status and party identification: A theory of operant conditioning

Five political generations in the U.S. national electorate are identified utilizing the theory of operant conditioning. The party identification of 11,312 white registered voters from the 1980New York Times/CBS News poll series is examined for these generations within social status (education) groupings.     

Past is still present: Micro-level comparisons of conventional vs. transitional economic voting in three Polish elections

Using survey data from three Polish parliamentary elections, we provide the first systematic micro-level test contrasting a standard incumbency-based model of economic voting with a transitional economic voting model in the post-communist context. To do so, we introduce a novel temporal component to micro-level studies of economic voting that supplements standard short-term retrospective economic evaluations (e.g., “do you feel the economy has improved in the past 12 months?”) with longer “transitional” retrospective economic evaluations (e.g., “do you feel the economy has improved since the collapse of communism?”). Our analyses reveal a nuanced picture suggesting multiple paths for economic influences on voting in Poland. We find evidence consistent with the standard incumbency-based approach, but only for the specific set of evaluations to which the theory is most appropriately applied: short-term retrospective economic evaluations and the vote for incumbent parties. By contrast, the transitional model is strongly supported by evidence that evaluations of changes in economic conditions since the collapse of communism (“long-term economic evaluations”) have an effect on the vote for a range of parties. We demonstrate as well that these results are robust to model specification and generational effects.     

Changes in Candidate Evaluations over the Campaign Season: A Comparison of House,Senate, and Presidential Races

Political Behavior - How do citizens’ preferences for candidates change during a campaign season? For the first time, this panel study examines how citizens’ preferences for candidates...     

Older Romantic Partners and Depressive Symptoms During Adolescence

Although developmental theory predicts that adolescent romantic relationships have important benefits, empirical evidence suggests that they may also carry substantial psychosocial risk. This study uses data from 4,948 respondents (50% female) in Wave I and Wave II of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health to examine the association between involvement with an older romantic partner and depressive symptoms during adolescence. Ordinary least squares regression models compared Wave II depressive symptoms among respondents with older partners (defined as an age difference of 2 or more years) to respondents with same-age or younger partners, controlling for baseline depressive symptoms and sociodemographic characteristics. Ten percent of females and two percent of males reported having an older romantic partner at Wave II. Among females only, involvement with an older romantic partner was associated with a modest but significant increase in depressive symptoms between waves. This association was largely mediated by increases in substance use. Findings suggest that involvement with an older male partner during adolescence may increase the risk of poor emotional outcomes among females.     

Deliberative Innovation to Different Effect: Consensus Conferences in Denmark, France, and the United States

Democratic reformers are attracted by the role that advisory forums composed of lay citizens can play in public consultation on complex policy issues (such as participatory technology assessment). Using a comparative study of consensus conferences on the issue of genetically modified food in Denmark, France, and the United States, the authors show that the potential of such deliberative "mini-publics" is quite different in different sorts of political system. They attend to the mode of establishment, perceived legitimacy, policy impact, and influence on public debate of the forum in each case. In actively inclusive Denmark,mini-publics are deployed in integrative fashion; in exclusive France, in managerial fashion; and in the passively inclusive United States, in advocacy fashion. Proponents and practitioners of deliberative participatory reforms should take into account the constraints and opportunities revealed by this analysis and attend to the different roles that mini-publics might play in different political systems.     

Mothers’ Motivations for Intimate Partner Violence Help-Seeking

The purpose of this study was to determine motivators for intimate partner violence (IPV) help-seeking among mothers. This qualitative study used English and Spanish-speaking focus groups and a grounded theory approach. Sixty-two mothers participated in eight groups. Motivators for IPV help-seeking fell into two broad categories, internal and external motivators. Although participants cited numerous motivators for IPV help-seeking, recognizing the negative effects of IPV on their children, labeling the partner’s behavior as abusive and the intervention of others were particularly important. For many participants, the effects of IPV on their children were the most important motivator. Few women made the decision to seek help without the encouragement of others. Unique to the Spanish-speaking participants was the influence of immigration status and limitations to disclosure created by using significant others as translators. Exploration of incorporating these motivators into IPV intervention efforts is warranted.     

Consideration of the probative value of single donor 15-plex STR profiles in UK populations and its presentation in UK courts

The adoption of new 15 locus STR multiplex systems into UK forensic science would be facilitated by agreed guidelines for reporting the strength of DNA evidence using likelihood ratios. To facilitate such an agreement, we present an analysis of previously published UK allele frequencies for white Caucasian, Afro-Caribbean and Indo-Pakistani populations and investigate their effect on likelihood ratios for single donor profiles. We consider the implication of the five additional loci and suggest a procedure for reporting likelihood ratios for 15-plex STR profiles.     

Developmental validation of the PowerPlex ESX 16 and PowerPlex ESX 17 Systems

We describe the developmental validation study performed on the PowerPlex^® ESX 16 (European Standard Extended 16) and the PowerPlex^® ESX 17 Systems, part of a suite of four new DNA profiling kits developed by Promega in response to the ENFSI and EDNAP groups’ call for new STR multiplexes for Europe. The PowerPlex^® ESX 16 System combines the 11 loci compatible with the UK National DNA Database, contained within the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® PCR Amplification Kit, with five additional loci: D2S441, D10S1248, D22S1045, D1S1656 and D12S391. The multiplex was designed to incorporate these five new loci as mini- and midi-STRs while maintaining the loci found in the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® kit as standard size. The PowerPlex^® ESX 17 System amplifies the same loci as the PowerPlex^® ESX 16 System, but with the addition of a primer pair for the SE33 locus. Tests were designed to address the developmental validation guidelines issued by the Scientific Working Group on DNA Analysis Methods (SWGDAM), and those of the DNA Advisory Board (DAB). Samples processed include DNA mixtures, PCR reactions spiked with inhibitors, a sensitivity series, and 306 United Kingdom donor samples to determine concordance with data generated with the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® kit. Allele frequencies from 242 white Caucasian samples collected in the United Kingdom are also presented. The PowerPlex^® ESX 16 and ESX 17 Systems are robust and sensitive tools, suitable for the analysis of forensic DNA samples. Full profiles were routinely observed with 62.5 pg of a fully heterozygous single source DNA template. In mixture analysis, a range of 52-95% of unique minor contributor alleles was observed at 19:1 mixture ratios where only 25 pg of the minor component was present. Improved sensitivity combined with the robustness afforded by smaller amplicons has substantially improved the quantity of information obtained from degraded samples, and the improved chemistry confers exceptional tolerance to high levels of laboratory prepared inhibitors.