Forecasting the 2010 general election using aggregate local election data

The paper presents a revised method for estimating national vote shares using aggregate data from local government by-elections. The model was originally developed to forecast the annual outcome of local elections but was adapted in time to provide an accurate forecast of Labour’s landslide victory at the 1997 general election. However, over the past decade the changing pattern of party competition which has seen parties becoming more selective about which elections to contest has led to more elections being excluded from the modelling because they failed to meet the exacting criteria that all three major parties, Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats, had contested both the by-election and the previous main election, normally held in May. Relaxing these criteria, although increasing the number of available cases would adversely affect the forecast, over- or under-estimating party votes. Instead, the revised method overcomes the problem of differential competition by estimating vote shares for parties that contest one but not both elections. A further innovation is the calculation of a weighted moving quarterly average which takes account of the number of days elapsed between the by-election date and the date of forecast. Using the new method we provide estimates for likely party shares for the 2010 general election.     

Impelling and inhibitory forces in aggression: sex-of-target and relationship effects

The finding of symmetry in intimate partner aggression is now generally accepted, but the convergence of male and female rates in these relationships remains unexplained. From qualitative analysis of male and female focus group discussions, we identified factors believed to influence the expression of aggression toward targets differing in sex and degree of intimacy. These factors were then used to construct a questionnaire in which 355 respondents indicated the applicability of the items to conflicts with a partner, a same-sex friend, and an opposite-sex friend. Principal component analysis revealed a clear two-factor structure of impelling forces (tending to provoke or initiate aggression) and inhibitory forces (tending to suppress or diminish the likelihood of aggression). Participants' scores on scales derived from these two factors were used in the subsequent analyses. Men reported lower inhibition and greater impulsion toward same-sex friends than to female friends and partners, who did not differ significantly from one another. Women showed lower inhibition to male targets, regardless of relationship, than to a female target. However, women rated their male partners as significantly higher on impelling forces than their male friends, who in turn were rated significantly higher than female friends. The results are broadly consistent with a sex-of-target effect corresponding to a chivalry norm held by both sexes that inhibits the expression of aggression toward women. The reasons why women are especially impelled to aggression by intimate partners are explored. Disaggregating the dynamics of interpersonal conflict into impelling and inhibitory components may prove useful in understanding and treating dispute escalation and resolution.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed: Alan Campbell, Nina Fishman and John McIlroy (eds.), British Trade Unions and Industrial Politics; Volume One: The Post‐war Compromise, 1945‐‐64; Volume Two: The High Tide of Trade Unionism, 1964‐79 Robert E. Lane, The Loss of Happiness in Market Democracies Peter Self, Rolling Back the Market: Economic Dogma and Political Choice Anne Phillips, Which Equalities Matter? Royden J. Harrison, The Life and Times of Sidney and Beatrice Webb, 1858‐‐1905: The Formative Years Tim Judah, Kosovo: War and Revenge Michael J. Hogan (ed.), The Ambiguous Legacy: US Foreign Relations in the ‘American Century’ Eric Roll, Where Are We Going? The Next Twenty Years Dennis Smith and Sue Wright (eds.), Whose Europe? The Turn Towards Democracy Meg Russell, Reforming the House of Lords: Lessons from Overseas The Wakeham Report, A House for the Future: The Royal Commission on the Reform of the House of Lords Anthony D. Smith, Myths and Memories of the Nation Phil Mullan, The Imaginary Time Bomb: Why an Ageing Population is not a Social Problem     

Television and Contraceptive Use – A Weak Signal?

Abstract

In recent years, rural electrification and access to television have spread throughout the developing world. The values and cultural norms embodied in television programming have potentially profound implications for influencing behaviour, including reproductive decisions. After replicating Westoff and Koffman’s (2011) finding of a positive correlation between television ownership and contraception using pooled Indonesian data, we proceed to estimate a fixed-effects model. The coefficient on television loses its significance while other policy relevant variables retain theirs. We conclude that the growing corpus of cross-sectional evidence on a link between television and contraception should be interpreted cautiously.     

Under Which Constitutional Arrangement Would You Still Prefer to be Unemployed? Neoliberalism,the Peace Process,and the Politics of Class in Northern Ireland

This article seeks to critically examine the political economy of the Northern Irish “peace process.” When the principal paramilitary organizations in the region declared cease-fires in 1994, it was widely assumed that political progress would be followed by economic prosperity. However, this “peace dividend” has never fully materialized. Those working-class communities that were at the center of the Troubles have derived little economic benefit over the last two decades. Indeed, if anything the already substantial class divisions in the six counties have become more pronounced over the course of the peace process. The article concludes by suggesting that these widening socioeconomic disparities have the potential to undermine the prevailing political settlement in Northern Ireland.     

Revisiting the governance of privacy: Contemporary policy instruments in global perspective

The repertoire of policy instruments within a particular policy sector varies by jurisdiction; some “tools of government” are associated with particular administrative and regulatory traditions and political cultures. It is less clear how the instruments associated with a particular policy sector may change over time, as economic, social, and technological conditions evolve. In the early 2000s, we surveyed and analyzed the global repertoire of policy instruments deployed to protect personal data. In this article, we explore how those instruments have changed as a result of 15 years of social, economic and technological transformations, during which the issue has assumed a far higher global profile, as one of the central policy questions associated with modern networked communications. We review the contemporary range of transnational, regulatory, self‐regulatory, and technical instruments according to the same framework, and conclude that the types of policy instrument have remained relatively stable, even though they are now deployed on a global scale. While the labels remain the same, however, the conceptual foundations for their legitimation and justification are shifting as greater emphases on accountability, risk, ethics, and the social/political value of privacy have gained purchase. Our analysis demonstrates both continuity and change within the governance of privacy, and displays how we would have tackled the same research project today. As a broader case study of regulation, it highlights the importance of going beyond technical and instrumental labels. Change or stability of policy instruments does not take place in isolation from the wider conceptualizations that shape their meaning, purpose, and effect.     

Political ad portraits: a visual analysis of viewer reaction to online political spoof advertisements

• The democratization of the Internet and the growing popularity of amateur video production have given rise to historic levels of voter engagement. In recent times, the populace has turned to YouTube and other similar websites to publicly voice their opinions through the posting of, and response to, amateur political videos. Political communication and campaign managers frequently struggle to consolidate, analyse, and respond to the vast array of commentary posted on the Internet in reply to these videos. The ability to quickly consolidate and interpret viewer responses to political videos provides campaign and communications' managers the opportunity to quickly make policy, positioning, or image changes. This is especially valuable considering that viewer responses provide a potentially unbiased picture of actual voter sentiment. Using the visualization software, Leximancer, we show how conversations around online political spoof videos can be mapped, interpreted, and used as a basis for strategic brand decision‐making. We discuss the implications of our findings, outline the technique's limitations, and trace avenues for further research.

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.