A Two‐Level Model for Evidence Evaluation in the Presence of Zeros*

Abstract: Likelihood ratios (LRs) provide a natural way of computing the value of evidence under competing propositions. We propose LR models for classification and comparison that extend the ideas of Aitken, Zadora, and Lucy and Aitken and Lucy to include consideration of zeros. Instead of substituting zeros by a small value, we view the presence of zeros as informative and model it using Bernoulli distributions. The proposed models are used for evaluation of forensic glass (comparison and classification problem) and paint data (comparison problem). Two hundred and sixty‐four glass samples were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer method and 36 acrylic topcoat paint samples by pyrolysis gas chromatography hyphened with mass spectrometer method. The proposed LR model gave very satisfactory results for the glass comparison problem and for most of the classification tasks for glass. Results of comparison of paints were also highly satisfactory, with only 3.0% false positive answers and 2.8% false negative answers.     

Circular Migration: A View from Destination Households in Two Urban Informal Settlements in South Africa

This article analyses dual household membership and the return intentions of migrants, using data collected from migrants living in two informal settlements in South Africa. While dual household membership is very common among the migrants we surveyed, less than half of these migrants wanted to return to their other household in the future. We explore the correlates of dual household membership and intended return migration and we consider the implications of our findings for measures of circular individual migration using existing cross-sectional datasets.     

Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

Change in European Societies since the 1970s

Sociology lags considerably behind political science in its comparative research on European societies, but enough material now exists to enable us to talk broadly about the major changes that have taken place since the 1970s across western Europe, and also to some extent central and eastern Europe too. Attention is here concentrated on those social trends that seem particularly salient for the study of politics, with occupational structure as the starting point. Although this dominant theme of classical sociology has tended to be neglected by much recent research in favour of such areas as deviance, gender and the formation of identities, working life remains fundamental to social organisation and in particular to politics. In fact, the theme of gender is easily accessed through consideration of changes in occupations, and considerable attention will be devoted to it here. This leads in turn to consideration of the family, then on to other aspects of demography including immigration and cultural diversity. This relates clearly to the final theme that will be discussed: the state of religion in Europe. In the conclusions some of the political implications of these changes are brought together.     

The normalizing role of rationalist assumptions in the institutional embedding of neoliberalism

The political economy of Britain over the past three decades provides an interesting example of the consolidation, normalization and institutionalization of a new economic paradigm – neoliberalism. As such, it serves as a potentially instructive focus for debate both about the conditions under which economic paradigms are replaced and consolidated and the evolution of such paradigms through the process of institutionalization. In this paper I suggest that the institutionalization of this new economic paradigm has been associated with the shift from a normative to a normalized and necessitarian neoliberalism. I examine the role played by rationalist assumptions in this extended process of normalization-institutionalization. After presenting a stylized account of the evolution of British neoliberalism, I show how New Labour's monetary policy regime is the heir to the legacy of monetarism and its agenda of labour-market reform is the heir to Thatcherism's supply-side economics. I suggest that the time-inconsistency thesis and the business school globalization thesis have played an equivalent role, for New Labour, to that played for the new right by monetarism and supply-side economics in legitimating neoliberalism. In this way neoliberalism has been normalized. In the final sections of the paper I reflect on the implications of the normalized and necessitarian character of neoliberalism in Britain for its contestability and for democratic economic governance more broadly.     

Shareholder value and Financialization: consultancy promises,management moves

In the pages of the daily financial press, 'shareholder value' is a loose rhetoric. For business consultants who sell financial metrics and implementation, shareholder value is also a product and a promise that purposive management action will be rewarded. This paper begins by considering the consultant's promise and the more guarded academic responses. It then presents empirics on micro performance and the meso limits to shareholder value and argues that most corporate managements cannot easily deliver what consultants promise and the capital markets demand. The paper ends by taking a broader view of value-based management as part of a process of financialization. If the results are contradictory and disappointing, a persistent gap between expectations and outcomes can nevertheless drive management behaviours, which change the world.     

How the United States justified its war on terrorism: prime morality and the construction of a ‘just war’

Just war theory has a long established reputation in the social sciences for evaluating the morality of the military actions of states. However, this analysis has rested upon assumptions of territorial sovereignty and the equal rights of states. The actions of hegemonic powers violate these twin assumptions through their expression of extra‐territorial reach. To avoid charges of immoral behaviour hegemonic powers must use the just war rhetoric of territoriality to justify their extra‐territorial acts. A world‐systems theory conceptualisation of hegemony allows for an interpretation of hegemonic military actions as the defence of a universal prime modernity. Prime modernity refers to an ideal organization of society projected by the hegemonic power as a form of integrative power. For the hegemonic power, threat is perceived as a rejection of the prime modernity anywhere rather than the language of border violations that dominates the foundations of just war theory. Using the language embedded in government and non‐government documents justifying the War on Terrorism, the manner in which a hegemonic power constructed military extra‐territoriality in a system of sovereign states as just is examined. The development of a ‘prime morality’ allowed the hegemonic power to claim that it was operating at the scales of the individual and ‘humankind’ rather than inter‐state power politics. The analysis challenges the implicit geographic assumptions of just war theory and extends our understanding of the imperatives underlying the hegemonic power's construction of its military actions as morally right.     

DEVOLUTION,GOVERNANCE AND THE PEACE PROCESS

Devolution and the associated mechanisms of governance—a power-sharing Executive, elected assembly, cross-border bodies, a reformed system of public administration and civic engagement —are a part of the wider mosaic of peace-building. Their implementation is an attempt to institutionalize stability and copper-fasten a political settlement. This article outlines the changing governmental arrangements existing within Northern Ireland, as it has shifted tentatively away from direct rule. It maps the wider public sector in Northern Ireland, including civil administration (chiefly the Northern Ireland Civil Service), an extended mosaic of nondepartmental public bodies (NDPBs) and other public agencies that, together with local government, form a complex, multi-layered, subregional governance. Our contention is that the manner in which the administration of Northern Ireland has been conducted yields fruitful insights into issues of territorial management in other areas afflicted by intractable constitutional wrangles and attendant violence. In short, an agreed system of governance is integral to the transition from conflict to peace (or at least stability) and, in the case of Northern Ireland, was central to the substance of the Belfast Agreement, characterized by a power-sharing Executive.     

Working from strengths to assess changes in gender equality

This paper describes an empirical application of a strengths-based approach (SBA) to assess changes in gender equality, and draws out implications for research, evaluation, and wider development practice. We outline what constitutes a strengths-based approach and present a case study where a participatory methodology informed by appreciative inquiry was used to investigate gender outcomes of two water, sanitation, and hygiene-focused development initiatives. We consider the value and limitations of taking an explicitly strengths-based approach to assessing gender outcomes, and also propose that there are important arguments for why SBAs might be usefully applied in addressing (not just assessing) gender equality.

Travailler à partir des forces pour évaluer les changements sur le plan de l'égalité entre les sexes

Ce document décrit une application empirique d'une approche fondée sur les forces (AFF) pour évaluer les changements sur le plan de l'égalité entre les sexes, et en tire les implications pour les recherches, l'évaluation et les pratiques plus générales en matière de développement. Nous décrivons ce qui constitue une approche fondée sur les forces et présentons une étude de cas dans laquelle une méthodologie participative éclairée par une enquête appréciative a été utilisée pour examiner les résultats sur le plan du genre de deux initiatives portant sur l'eau, l'assainissement et l'hygiène. Nous considérons la valeur et les limites de l'adoption d'une approche expressément fondée sur les forces pour évaluer les résultats sur le plan du genre, et avançons par ailleurs qu'il y a des arguments importants concernant les raisons pour lesquelles les ABS pourraient être utilement appliquées au moment de tenter d'obtenir (et pas seulement d'évaluer) l'égalité entre les sexes.

Evaluando cambios en la igualdad de género a partir de las fortalezas

El presente artículo examina la aplicación empírica de un enfoque basado en fortalezas (SBA por sus siglas en inglés), destinado a valorar cambios en la igualdad de género y a analizar sus implicaciones en la investigación, la evaluación y las prácticas más generales relacionadas con el desarrollo. Las autoras hacen un bosquejo de lo que constituye un SBA. Presentan un estudio de caso en el que se utilizó una metodología participativa a partir de una investigación apreciativa, con el objetivo de realizar una pesquisa en torno a los resultados vinculados al género obtenidos en dos iniciativas de desarrollo enfocadas en agua, saneamiento e higiene. Asimismo, examinan el valor y las limitaciones implicadas en el uso explícito de un SBA para valorar los resultados relacionados con el género, sosteniendo que existen razones importantes para defender la utilización del SBA con el fin de obtener (y no sólo valorar) la igualdad de género.

Trabalhando a partir dos pontos fortes para avaliar mudanças na igualdade de gênero

Este artigo descreve uma aplicação empírica de uma abordagem baseada nos pontos fortes (SBA) para avaliar mudanças na igualdade de gênero e extrai as implicações para a pesquisa, avaliação e prática de desenvolvimento mais geral. Esboçamos o que constitui uma abordagem baseada nos pontos fortes e apresentamos um estudo de caso onde uma metodologia participativa com informações de uma investigação apreciativa foi utilizada para examinar os resultados de gênero de duas iniciativas de desenvolvimento focalizadas no fornecimento de água, saneamento e higiene. Consideramos o valor e as limitações de se adotar uma abordagem explicitamente baseada nos pontos fortes para avaliar os resultados de gênero e também propomos que há argumentos importantes que explicam por que as SBAs podem ser utilmente aplicadas na abordagem da igualdade de gênero (não apenas avaliando).     

Parties,Recruitment and Modernisation: Evidence from Local Election Candidates

Using pooled data from four separate nationwide surveys of local election candidates conducted from 2006–09 the paper assesses the role and importance of parties in the recruitment and selection of candidates. In many respects candidates are similar to councillors with men outnumbering women in a two to one ratio, with very few non-white candidates coming forward for selection and an age bias towards older rather than younger people. Candidates are found generally to have higher educational qualifications and to be employed in professional and managerial populations than in the public at large. Although a majority of candidates are resident in the ward that they contest a large fraction live elsewhere, suggesting that local parties cast the net widely during the recruitment process. The data suggest that the recruitment networks used by parties are relatively closed with many candidates reporting prior experience as local party officer holders or as members of charitable organisations and local public bodies. For two-thirds of candidates the initial decision to stand follows from a request by someone else, often a fellow party member. Women are more likely to be asked than men. Although candidates are aware of the current under-representation of some social and ethnic groups they are generally against using affirmative action measures to redress any imbalance. Although local parties are sometimes seen as contributing towards the problem of under-representation of some groups on council benches the data suggest than an increase in independent candidates would be unlikely to improve the situation and could perhaps cause it to deteriorate still further.