Cycle avoiding trajectories,strategic agendas,and the duality of memory and foresight: An informal exposition

This paper considers the notion of cycle avoiding trajectories in majority voting tournaments and shows that they underlie and guide several apparently disparate voting processes. The set of alternatives that are maximal with respect to such trajectories constitutes a new solution set of considerable significance. It may be dubbed the Banks set, in recognition of the important paper by Banks (1985) that first made use of this set. The purpose of this paper is to informally demonstrate that the Banks set is a solution set of broad relevance for understanding group decision making in both cooperative and non-cooperative settings and under both sincere and sophisticated voting. In addition, we show how sincere and sophisticated voting processes can be viewed as mirror images of one another — embodying respectively, “dmemory” and “foresight.” We also show how to develop the idea of a “sophisticated agenda,” one in which the choice of what alternatives to propose is itself a matter of strategic calculation.     

Resources of supplemental security income recipients

In order to receive payments under the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, an aged, blind, or disabled person's countable resources must fall below specified limits. The current limits are +2,000 for an individual and +3,000 for a couple. In 1987, when the data were collected for this study, these limits were +1,800 for an individual and +2,700 for a couple. This study found that the resource levels of most SSI recipients were well below the 1987 limits. A majority of SSI recipients had less than +100 in countable resources, and only about 12 percent of SSI recipients had more than +1,000 of resources. These low levels of resources ensure that relatively few recipients become ineligible for SSI payments because of resource accumulation. The most common forms of countable resources held by SSI recipients were cash, checking accounts, and savings accounts.     

A study of Supplemental Security Income awardees

Since its enactment in 1974, the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program has had a stable caseload of about 4 million recipients. Hidden by this unchanging total is the fact that nearly 9 million persons were served by the program from 1974 to 1986. This study explores some SSI program dynamics by following a group of SSI awardees for a period of 4 years from the initial receipt of award in 1981. Many of these awardees had previous contact with the program either through a previous award or a denial. About 60 percent of the awardees were eligible at the end of the 4-year period. Most persons who became ineligible did so within the first 6 months after the award.     

Reviews

African Historiographies: What History for Which Africa?edited by BOGUMIL Jewsiewicki and David Newbury SAGE Publications, Beverly Hills (California) and London, 1986. 320 pp. including figures, notes and bibliography. £33,00.

Rural‐Urban Migration: Aspects of Theory, Policy and Practice by FrançAlcois Theron and Johann F. Graaff University Publishers, Stellenbosch and Grahamstown, 1987. 64 pp. including tables, notes and bibliography. R7,50 paperback.

German Imperialism in Africa: From the Beginnings until the Second World War edited by Helmuth Stoecker C. Hurst and Co., London, 1986. 446 pp. including bibliography and index. £17,50.

Elections in Independent Africa edited by Fred M. Hayward Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1987. xvii plus 318 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, bibliography and index. $36,50 paperback.

Africa and Israel: Relations in Perspective by Olusola Ojo Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1988. xiv plus 181 pp. including tables, notes and index. $23,50 paperback.

Rural Transformation in Tropical Africa edited by Douglas Rimmer Ohio University Press, Athens (Ohio), and Belhaven Press, London, 1988. viii plus 177 pp. including tables, figures, references and index. $27,95.

Ethiopia: Transition and Development in the Horn of Africa by Mulatu Wubneh and Yohannis Abate Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), and Avebury, London, 1988. xv plus 224 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, appendix, select bibliography and index. $28,00.

Ethiopia: The United States and the Soviet Union, 1974–1985 by David A. Korn Croom Helm, London and Sydney, 1986. xvii plus 199 pp. including map, notes, appendices, select bibliography and index. £19,95.

Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia by Christopher Clapham Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York and Sydney, 1988. xviii plus 284 pp. including map, tables, notes, bibliography and index. £30,00.

Politics and the Military in Uganda, 1890–1985 by Amii Omara‐Otunnu St. Martin's Press, New York, 1987. xx plus 218 pp. $35,00 paperback.

The Soviet Union, the Third World and Southern Africa by Jack Spence South African Institute of International Affairs, Johannesburg, 1988. vi plus 35 pp. including references. R10,00 paperback.

The Battlefronts of Southern Africa by Colin Legum Africana Publishing Co., New York and London, 1988. xxix plus 451 pp. including map, notes, appendices and indexes. $34,50 paperback.

The Politics of Development in Botswana: A Model for Success? By Louis A. Picard Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1987. xiv plus 298 pp. including tables, figures, notes, select bibliography and index. $26,50.

Capitalism and Apartheid: South Africa, 1910–1986 by Merle Lipton Wildwood House, London, and David Philip, Cape Town, 1986. xi plus 473 pp. including map, tables, notes and index. $8,95 paperback.

Class, Community and Conflict: South African Perspectives edited by Belinda Bozzoli Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1987. xx plus 573 pp. including tables, illustrations, notes and index. R35,00 paperback.

Growing Up in a Divided Society: The Contexts of Childhood in South Africa edited by Sandra Burman and Pamela Reynolds Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1986. xvi plus 454 pp. including map, tables, figures, illustrations, references and index. R28,00 paperback.

South Africa under Apartheid: A Select and Annotated Bibliography by Jacqueline A. Kalley Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, and Institute of Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, 1987. xiii plus 544 pp. including index. R39,00 paperback.     

The nuclear family: Correspondence in cognitive and affective reactions to the threat of nuclear war among older adolescents and their parents

In order to assess the relationship between family members' cognitive and affective responses to nuclear war issues, 317 college students and their parents (n=559) independently completed a multifaceted questionnaire that included items concerning personal reactions, predictions, opinions, and attitudes about nuclear war. Results revealed a negligible relationship between the responses of college students and their parents, although the level of concordance between mothers and fathers was somewhat greater. Moreover, parents and students were relatively poor at predicting each others' nuclear threat attitudes, and the strength with which an attitude was endorsed did not enhance its predictability. Results are discussed with regard to heterogeneity in attitudinal and affective reactions within families, and with regard to the idea that infrequent communication concerning nuclear war issues may be occurring.Portions of this article were presented at the meeting of the American Psychological Association, Los Angeles, California, August 25, 1985.Interested in clinical and counseling psychology, the psychological effects of the threat of nuclear war, and parent training.Interested in counseling psychology, nuclear war issues, and the concept-specific measurement of emotionality.Interested in counseling psychology, nuclear war issues, and factors influencing custody decisions.     

Estimation of the quantity of a drug in a consignment from measurements on a sample

A consignment of individual packages is thought to contain illegal material, such as drugs, in some or all of the packages. A sample from the consignment is inspected and the quantity of drugs in each package of the sample is measured. It is desired to estimate the total quantity of drugs in the consignment. Sampling variation is present in the original measurements and it is not sufficient just to adjust the sample mean pro rata. An analysis is described which takes account of the uncertainty concerning the proportion of the packages that contain drugs and provides a probabilistic summary of the quantity of drugs in the consignment. In particular, a probabilistic lower bound for the quantity of drugs in the consignment is given, which is dependent on the required standard of proof. This is in contrast to the approach based on confidence intervals which assumes that in the long run, the interval will contain the correct quantity the appropriate proportion of the time, but gives no measure of uncertainty associated with the particular consignment under consideration.     

“E” the People: Do U.S. Municipal Government Web Sites Support Public Involvement?

To what extent do local government Web sites support practical, meaningful public involvement? Fifteen years after the adoption and diffusion of the World Wide Web, the answer to this question remains cloudy and controversial. The promise—and peril—of Web‐based public involvement, known as e‐democracy, has been widely debated. Much of the debate has focused on theoretical abstractions or extrapolations of current political or technological trends. Empirical studies have been limited to reports on pilot projects, case studies, or special population surveys. This paper contributes to our empirical understanding of the question. It reports results of a recent comprehensive survey of official government Web sites in the principal cities of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. In particular, it examines whether and how U.S. city government Web sites facilitate users’ involvement in local public issues.     

Monotone Comparative Statics for Models of Politics

We elucidate a powerful yet simple method for deriving comparative statics conclusions for a wide variety of models: Monotone Comparative Statics ( Milgrom and Shannon 1994 ). Monotone comparative static methods allow researchers to extract robust, substantive empirical implications from formal models that can be tested using ordinal data and simple nonparametric tests. When these methods apply, they can replace a diverse range of more technically difficult mathematics (facilitating richer, more realistic models), assumptions that are hard to understand or justify substantively (highlighting the political intuitions underlying a model's results), and a complicated set of methods for extracting implications from models. We present an accessible introduction to the central monotone comparative statics results and a series of practical tools for using these techniques in applied models (with reference to original sources, when relevant). Throughout we demonstrate the techniques with examples drawn from political science .