The Evolution of China’s Security Challenges and Grand Strategy

This article examines changes in China’s security perceptions since 1949 and sketches the evolution of China’s grand strategy. In tracing the evolution of China’s security perceptions and grand strategy since 1949, it identifies elements of change as well as continuity. The changes reflect dramatic developments in the PRC’s capabilities and the international circumstances it faces, both of which have shaped the grand strategic choices of China’s leaders. During most of the Cold War decades, a relatively weak China’s vulnerability to serious military threats from much more powerful adversaries led the CCP to adopt grand strategies focused on coping with a clearly defined external security challenge. After the Cold War and especially in the 21st century, an increasingly complex array of internal and external security concerns confronts China’s leaders with new challenges. The paper concludes with a discussion of the significance of the recently established National Security Commission and offers brief observations about its potential significance for the CCP’s leadership in their fight against the new domestic and international security challenges it faces. The novelty of China’s security challenges at home and abroad in the 21st century is a consequence of the end of the Cold War international order and perhaps more importantly, a consequence of China’s successful modernization since 1979.