Computer Power and Legal Reasoning: A Case Study of Judicial Decision Prediction in Zoning Amendment Cases

While social scientists have long advocated the use of statistical methodology in legal analysis, its practical application has not been tested. Statistical models based on social science theories have been used to predict judicial decisions and explain court behavior, but the legal profession has failed to develop statistical models based on traditional legal theories and using data familiar to the lawyer. This article seeks to demonstrate by practical application of statistical methodologies, coupled with traditional legal research methods, that such research can produce important insight into a court's decision making and provide a useful model for predicting the probability of a favorable decision. The zoning amendment decisions of the Connecticut Supreme Court are the data base of this study, which also provides a comprehensive explanation of zoning amendment law in Connecticut as a backdrop against which to evaluate the insights gained by statistical analysis.     

Behavior Problems in Children Exposed to Wife Abuse: Gender Differences

Family aggression patterns and behavior problems of children, aged 6-12, recruited from shelters for battered women (shelter group) were contrasted with three comparison groups of currently nonviolent families: two-parent, single-mother, and homeless. Girls who had been exposed to recent interparental wife abuse were predicted to show more internalizing and externalizing behavior problems than similarly exposed boys, based on recent literature. Homeless and shelter mothers reported the highest rates of parent-child aggression. Shelter girls obtained significantly higher total, internalizing and externalizing behavior problem ratings than shelter boys, and than two-parent and single-mother girls. Shelter boys obtained significantly higher internalizing ratings than two-parent boys. Shelter and homeless children were rated as having equivalent levels of behaviour problems. Across all groups, mothers' psychological adjustment was a better predictor of daughters' adjustment than that of sons. The study concluded that the assumption that preadolescent girls have greater immunity to psychosocial risk is unfounded.     

Crime scene analysis and the escalation of violence in serial rape.

The current study examines the crime scene behavior manifest by 108 serial rapists responsible for the perpetration of 565 rapes across various cities within the US. The goal of the current study is to identify which aspects of crime scene behavior reported to law enforcement by the victim are most useful in predicting, early in a series of offenses, which rapists are most likely to escalate into higher and, at times, life threatening levels of violence. Using 58 scales that quantify the verbal, physical, and sexual behavior manifest by a rapist in his interaction with his victim during his first reported rape and 36 modal variables that summarized approach, timing, demographics, and weapon usage across the series of rapes, the study attempts to differentiate between those rapists who escalate in their use of blunt force (Increasers) from those who do not (Non-Increasers). A logistic regression indicates that rapists who are white rather than of minority status and who, at the time of their first reported rape, rape their victims for longer periods of time and use more profanity are more likely to escalate in their level of blunt force than those rapists who do not exhibit these behaviors. The relevance of this type of predictive framework for law enforcement in its attempts to prioritize particular investigations is discussed.     

Balancing Accountability and Efficiency in a More Competitive Public Sector Environment

Extract from a speech delivered at Government-in-Excellence Summit 2000, 'Reinventing Government — A Manifesto for Achieving Excellence and Managing for Results in the New Millennium', 24–26 May, Singapore, (For the full text see www.anao.gov.au)     

Depressive Symptomatology and Program Efficacy: Examining a Program to Improve Communication in Community Families

Destructive conflict is linked with adjustment problems over time, putting families at risk even when conflict behaviors have not reached levels of clinical concern. The Family Communication Project (FCP) is a psychoeducational program designed to improve communication in families with adolescent children. The present study examines the role of depression in program efficacy over time. Data were collected across four time points, assessing aspects of marital and family conflict, adolescent emotional security, and depressive symptoms in mothers, fathers, and adolescents. Results indicated improvements in conflict strategies for families who received the psychoeducational program (relative to controls), and point to a role of depressive symptomatology in adolescents in relation to treatment outcomes.