CRIMINAL CAREER RESEARCH: ITS VALUE FOR CRIMINOLOGY*

In a recent paper published in this journal, Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986)¹ argue that the concepts of criminal careers, career criminals, selective incapacitation, prevalence, and incidence, and longitudinal studies all have little value for criminology. In our view their paper misrepresents these concepts and our research on these topics. We are pleased to have the opportunity in this paper to develop these concepts more clearly and to show their relevance for criminology.     

MODELING CRIMINAL CAREERS*

A stochastic model of criminal careers embodying the assumptions of Gottfredson and Hirschi (1986, 1988) is used as a tool to examine the arguments and claims that have been raised in the recent debate over the nature of criminal careers. The model is used to fit aggregate career data in different jurisdictions and to explain racial and sex patterns in recidivism data. Some of the arguments that have been deployed on both sides of this debate are shown to lack validity. Nullius in verba. —Motto of the Royal Society