SINUSOIDAL PATTERN ANALYSIS IN CRIMINAL INCIDENCE

This paper demonstrates a set of statistical techniques which can be used to assess variations in delinquency offensex The subjects are juveniles convicted of aggravated assault, aggravated battery, burglary, homicide, rape, and robbery. A statistically significant sinusoidal pattern was observed.     

FROM SOCIALISM TO FASCISM: THE RELATION BETWEEN THEORY AND PRACTICE IN THE WORK OF ROBERT MICHELS II.

Abstract This article concludes a study tracing the role of élite theory in Michels' development from revolutionary socialist to Fascist ideologue. It argues, first that the laws of oligarchy and elite circulation as expounded by Mosca and Pareto made the Fascist seizure of power appear historically necessary. It then examines the contribution which the experience of Fascist rule made to the further development of élite theory in Michels' work; his use of the theory to give scientific status to the self-image of the Fascist élite and the charismatic claims of its leader; his legitimation of authoritarian government and nationalist policies through the theories of mass psychology. The conclusion argues that what distinguished Michels from other Fascist ideologues was his use of scientific categories, and locates the origin of these categories in the historical experience of pre-world war Europe.     

THE REPRODUCTION OF RACIAL INEQUALITY: HOW CRIME AFFECTS HOUSING TURNOVER*

This study examines the microlevel process of housing turnover between Blacks and Whites to assess whether crime plays an important role in the racial transition of neighborhoods. The study uses a unique, longitudinal version of the National Crime Survey in which each dwelling's close neighbors are identified. After controlling for household characteristics and the characteristics of their close neighbors, crime occurring in nearby areas is found to increase the chances of White-to-Black turnover while decreasing the chances of Black-to-White turnover. This change occurs even though the directly victimized houses do not necessarily have a probability of racial turnover different than that of other houses nearby. The findings suggest the presence of structural constraints that limit the housing opportunities for Blacks and constrain their choice of residence to comparatively unsafe neighborhoods. They also indicate that “White avoidance,” in which Whites systematically bypass high-crime neighborhoods, is important in maintaining the relationship between race and crime.     

Whatever Became of the British?

Much of the debate about ‘being British’ is driven by the politics of the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This has led to assertions about the declining impact of Britishness, and how, in the interests of the Union, it might be revived. Data from British and Scottish Social Attitudes surveys show that ‘Britain’ remains an important and meaningful frame of reference, even though people in England and Scotland may not define their prime national identity as British. The relationship between national identity and constitutional preferences is complex. Being ‘strongly Scottish’ is a weak predictor of constitutional preferences because almost all Scots are at the ‘strong’ end of the Scottish scale, whereas saying you are ‘British’ (or not) is a better guide. It is not a matter of choosing to be Scottish or English over being British, but recognising the complexity and inter‐relationships of diverse territorial identities.     

Scotland Out the Union? The Rise and Rise of the Nationalist Agenda

The election of the Scottish National party as a majority government in 2011 is as challenging to the British state as it was unexpected. While explanations for SNP success focused on Labour's faulty campaign and poor leadership, the last half‐century has seen the rise and rise of the nationalist agenda in Scotland. Scotland's politics are now more different from England's than at any time since the 1950s. The Scottish parliament is the effect of that change rather than its cause, while party competition between Labour and the SNP north of the border has shifted political gravity centre‐left in contrast with England. It is not inevitable, however, that Scots would vote for Independence in a referendum. Nevertheless, Scotland is a more semi‐detached country than at any point in the history of the Union, and the future of the British state, at least in its present form, cannot be taken for granted.     

‘Somewhat more disruptive than we had in mind’1: The Boundary Commission for England's 2011 Proposed Redistribution of Parliamentary Constituencies

In February 2011 the UK Parliament passed an Act that both reduced the number of MPs to be elected to the House of Commons and significantly altered the rules for the definition of Parliamentary constituencies. After six redistributions in which organic criteria—MPs representing places with a community of interest—dominated the redrawing of constituency boundaries, the new rules gave precedence to an arithmetic criterion: all constituencies must have electorates within 5 per cent of the national quota (average). Seven months later the Boundary Commission published its initial proposals for a new set of 502 constituencies implementing these new rules. This paper evaluates the amount of change to the country's electoral map that this involves, identifies the main features of the new constituency configurations, and assesses their likely impact on UK political life.