Using Spatial,Temporal and Evidence‐status Data to Improve Ballistic Imaging Performance

Firearms identification imaging systems help solve crimes by comparing newly acquired images of cartridge casings or bullets to a database of images obtained from past crime scenes. We formulate an optimization problem that bases its matching decisions not only on the similarity between pairs of images, but also on the time and spatial location of each new acquisition and each database entry. The objective is to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the false positive rate. We use data on all cartridge casings matches detected in Israel during 2006–2008 to estimate most of the model parameters. We estimate matching accuracy from two different studies and predict that the optimal use of extraneous information would increase the detection probability from 0.931 to 0.987 and from 0.707 to 0.844, respectively. These improvements are achieved by favoring pairs of images that are closer together in space and time.     

Acute Aortic Dissection Diagnosed after Embalming: Macroscopic and Microscopic Findings

A 58‐year‐old man died suddenly in Madagascar and poisoning was suspected. The body was embalmed after death and the general state of preservation was good. We found a major aortic dissection with a large false lumen from the aortic root to the common iliac arteries and a hemopericardium with formalinized blood clot. The intimal tear was on the ascending aorta, and an intramural hemorrhage was noted at the right coronary artery, attesting to a retrograde dissection. Microscopic studies confirmed aortic dissection with extensive intramural hemorrhage and also confirmed the retrograde dissection to the right coronary artery with a reduction of 90% of the true lumen. Classically, aortic dissection occurs in individuals with hypertension and individuals with genetic disorders of collagen formation. The diagnosis is often first established at the postmortem examination. Aortic dissection is therefore dealt with largely in necropsy studies. The usual cause of death is rupture into the pericardial sac. One case of bloodless dissection has been reported but the sudden death was explained by acute myocardial ischemia secondary to dissection of the left coronary artery. In our case, we found major hemopericardium and also intramural hemorrhage at the right coronary artery. We were able to make the diagnosis of aortic dissection and exclude the suspicion of homicide 15 days after death and after embalming.     

Causes and correlates of prison inmate misconduct: A systematic review of the evidence

Purpose

Inmate rule violations or “misconducts” reflect offending within a prison, and this study involved a systematic review of studies of the causes/correlates of inmate misconduct published between 1980 and 2013.

Methods

An exhaustive search of relevant high impact journals yielded 98 studies of causes/correlates of inmates misconduct published between 1980 and 2013. The final models from these studies were examined to assess the impact of the predictor variables on misconduct.

Results

Findings revealed that predictor variables reflecting inmates’ background characteristics (e.g., age, prior record), their institutional routines and experiences (e.g., prior misconducts), and prison characteristics (e.g., security level) all impact misconduct.

Conclusions

Researchers should apply general theories of crime and deviance (e.g., control) that can incorporate all of the empirically relevant inmate and prison characteristics to the study of offending in prison (misconduct). Researchers should also examine the sources of variability in the effects of predictor variables across studies.     

Rural housing market response to nonfarm employment growth: an analysis of housing development patterns

This paper describes uses of economic impact models to examine labor force and housing relationships associated with regional employment changes, including area-wide labor demands, expected housing needs in response to changes in the labor force size, and the predicted quantity of new housing units that will be developed. The perspectives analyzed represent important elements in economic development planning, especially in light of the tremendous competition for firms and workers among cities and states in the U.S. today. Rural development officials report difficulty attracting residential labor force members and reason that the absence of housing starts in rural places is inhibiting future growth prospects. The paper demonstrates how input-output, econometric, and spatial analysis methods can be combined to assist decision makers in determining the overall value of regional economic growth and the labor and housing impacts of that growth. Special attention is given to delineating the spatial dimensions of labor and housing markets in rural, urban, and metropolitan settings.     

Recovery Risk and Labor Costs in Public–Private Partnerships: Contractual Choice in the US Water Industry

We use an ordered logistic model to empirically examine the factors that explain varying degrees of private involvement in the US water sector through public–private partnerships. Our estimates suggest that a variety of factors help explain greater private participation in this sector. We find that the risk to private participants regarding cost recovery is an important driver of private participation. The relative cost of labour is also a key factor in determining the degree of private involvement in the contract choice. When public wages are high relative to private wages, private participation is viewed as a source of cost savings. We thus find two main drivers of greater private involvement: one encouraging private participation by reducing risk, and another encouraging government to seek out private participation in lowering costs.     

Reviews and commentary

The (a)ble, (b)rave, and “c” of sis

Anthony Cave Brown: The Secret Life of Sir Stewart Graham Menzies, Spymaster to Winston Churchill Macmillan, New York, 1987, 830 p., $25.00.

Sentries in the Senate

William S. Cohen and George J. Mitchell: Men of Zeal: A Candid Inside Story of the Iran‐Contra Hearings Viking Press, New York, 1988, 350 p., $19.95.

Disappointing Stalin: Cold War Compromises

Christopher Simpson: Blowback: America's Recruitment of Nazis and Its Effect on the Cold War Weidenfeld &; Nicolson, New York, 1988, 290 p., $19.95.

Flaws in the Perfect Book on Technowar

James William Gibson: The Perfect War: Technowar in Vietnam The Atlantic Monthly Press, Boston, Mass., 1986, 523 p., $24.95.     

The changing nature of the transatlantic link: U.S. approaches and implications for Central and Eastern Europe

This article examines the changing security, economic and diplomatic components of the transatlantic link, with a particular focus on Washington's approach and implications for Central and Eastern Europe. The United States continues to play an essential role as security underwriter in the region, but the military dimension of the transatlantic relationship is transforming and will result in greater burdens on Europeans. Economic links between the U.S. and Central Europe are developing more strongly than generally understood, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is likely to drive both political and economic ties. Unconventional gas developments are enhancing U.S. engagement in European energy markets. Finally, the U.S. remains keen to engage its European partners on a broad agenda of global and regional issues and retains its own interests in working particularly with Central and Eastern European countries to lend stability to ‘wider Europe’.     

The Lebanese Hizballah and Israeli Counterterrorism

This article examines Israel's attempts to weaken and defeat the Lebanese Hizballah. It reviews Hizballah's rise after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Hizballah's successful effort to force Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon in 2000, the 2006 war, and Israeli attempts to deter Hizballah. The article argues that Israel has largely failed to defeat Hizballah militarily and politically. Israel's experience offers lessons for how terrorist groups learn, the effectiveness of terrorist attrition strategies against casualty-sensitivity states, the difficulties in coercing terrorist groups, and the importance of an information strategy. Finally, Israel's clash with Hizballah indicates the importance of thinking of groups that are large and multi-faceted from a counterinsurgency paradigm.     

Curious Victory: Explaining Israel's Suppression of the Second Intifada

The article examines Israel's successes and failures during the Second Intifada. It argues that Israel's advances came from an effective counterterrorism campaign involving a mix of military operations, defensive measures, and in particular improved intelligence gathering. Domestic resilience also proved strong in the face of a brutal terrorism campaign. Yet long-term victory remains elusive for Israel. Deterrence, always difficult against terrorist groups, is growing harder for Israel. Hamas's control of Gaza, and the mistrust and hatred sown during the Second Intifada, have hindered a political deal between Israel and moderate Palestinians. Much of what went into successful counterterrorism, notably the security barrier and the aggressive campaign of raids and arrests, does not jibe with most visions of what peace would look like and makes a deal harder to achieve. To make a peace deal work, Israeli counterterrorism must change, with measures including relocating parts of the security barrier, bolstering moderate Palestinian politicians, and working with, as opposed to undermining, Palestinian security forces in the West Bank.