The American family transformed

He is author of Today’s Children: Creating a Future for a Generation in Crisis.     

Understanding political risk in investment planning

In 1982, the Congress authorized $11 billion to modernize the nation's air traffic control system—one of the largest infrastructure investments since the building of the interstate highway system. Although this investment appears to offer a large and robust return, the economic results depend strongly on productivity gains through system consolidation. It is uncertain what balance the Congress will strike between the long-term, widely shared benefits of greater productivity and the immediate job losses from system consolidation. This risk can be included in the calculus of expected return through Monte Carlo analysis. When this is done, the expected return drops very close to the 10% hurdle rate that the government often uses for such projects. This method of integrating political risk can be applied to any investment, public or private, for which political action joins the customary economic and technical uncertainties in affecting the outcome.     

Developing relevant data for a prison organizational development program

A project to develop a set of techniques for bringing about change in an existing prison is described. The effort concentrated primarily on the managers of the statewide system, and the staff and inmates of one prison were the focus of a set of intervention experiments. Methods for modifying the network of human and organizational relationships in that system were objects of this project. The research instruments used, their use, and some of the things learned about them is given in detail.