Understanding the Art and Techniques of Conflict Resolution

Negotiation Journal -     

An economic analysis of the post World War II decline in the Japanese crime rate

Since the end of World War II there has been a dramatic decrease in reported Japanese crime. Adult arrest rates have fallen steadily since the early 1950s and juvenile arrest rates have fallen since the early 1960s. An economic analysis of crime predicts that crime rates depend upon returns to crime relative to returns in legal pursuits and the certainty and severity of punishment. Regression analysis is used to test this theory using Japanese data. The empirical results indicate that the economic model does not outperform alternative naive models. However, the results are consistent with the hypothesis that increases in returns to legitimate work diminish both adult and juvenile crime. Unemployment affects some adult crimes but has little impact on juvenile crime. The share of the population in poverty has no significant impact on either type of crime. Increases in the certainty of punishment deters adult crime but there is little evidence that increases in either the certainty or the severity of punishment deter juvenile crime. There is weak evidence to support the hypothesis that increases in the severity of adult punishments deter crime.     

Chloroquine distribution in postmortem cases

Chloroquine concentrations in blood and tissues were examined in overdose and non-overdose cases to determine appropriate ranges for interpretation. Twenty-nine literature overdose cases and 8 non-overdose literature cases were compared with this laboratory's findings. The results indicate significant postmortem redistribution of chloroquine. Combining this laboratory's results and the literature results indicates that using a liver concentration of 150 mg/kg as a cutoff between overdose and non-overdose concentrations properly identified 30 of the 34 published cases containing liver chloroquine and 19 of the 20 presented cases.     

The failure of effective technological transfer in Polish industry

Central planners in Poland have continuously emphasized the importance of increasing factor productivity as a major goal of Polish development policy and have included this goal as an integral part of every economic reform proposal of the last two decades. In the decade of the 1970s a new development strategy was initiated which counted heavily on the import of more technologically advanced machinery and equipment and the purchase of licenses and production processes from the West. This paper documents the tremendous increase in Western imports and the purchase of licenses which took place in the 1970s, and which would then be expected to generate an increase in joint factor productivity due to technological change. Empirical analysis, however, indicates that there was no effective transfer of the technology. Joint factor productivity for total industry calculated as a residual in estimated production functions, which include imported inputs, has a zero rate of growth from 1970 to 1978 (using quarterly data). Disaggregating and using annual data over a longer sample period yields estimates of the rate of growth of joint factor productivity which increase slightly for total industry in the 1973–1977 period. For the electrical and mechanical branch which received large numbers of license and joint production agreements the rate of growth of joint factor productivity remained unchanged. The results indicate that systemic factors such as central planning, managerial inhibitions and supply bottlenecks out-weighed any potential increase in factor productivity as a result of technology transfer.