A Capture–Recapture Model to Estimate the Size of Criminal Populations and the Risks of Detection in a Marijuana Cultivation Industry

Originally developed in biology, capture-recapture methodologies have increasingly been integrated into the study of human populations to provide estimates of the size of “hidden populations.” This paper explores the validity of one capture-recapture model—Zelterman’s (1988) truncated Poisson estimator—used to estimate the size of the marijuana cultivation industry in Quebec, Canada. The capture–recapture analysis draws on arrest data to estimate the number of marijuana growers “at risk of being arrested” for a period of five years (1998–2002). Estimates are provided for growers involved in two different techniques: (1) soil-based growing, and (2) hydroponics. In addition, the study develops an original method to estimate the prevalence of cultivation sites “at risk of detection.” A first set of findings shows that the cultivation industry is substantial; the estimated prevalence of growers compares to estimates of marijuana dealers in the province. Capture–recapture estimates are also used to compare the risks of being arrested for different types of offenders. Results indicate that hydroponic growers—those involved in large scale and sophisticated sites—face lower enforcement-related risks than growers involved in smaller enterprises. The significance of these findings is discussed in the context of the widespread development, both in Europe and in North America, of a successful domestic production-driven, rather than importation-driven, marijuana trade.

Hispanics, Social Security, and Supplemental Security Income

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that Hispanics are the country's largest and fastest growing minority, representing about 14.4 percent of the population in 2005 (Census Bureau 2006b). By 2050, Hispanics will account for an estimated 24.4 percent of the population--or 1 in every 4 persons in the United States (Census Bureau 2004, Table 1 a). The Hispanic population tends to be younger than the overall population and currently represents a relatively small but growing fraction of the Social Security beneficiary population. The representation of Hispanics in the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program, however, approximates that of their representation in the overall population. This article compares the Hispanic population with the overall population along several dimensions, with a particular focus on the Social Security beneficiary and SSI recipient populations. Data are drawn mainly from the 2005 Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey (ACS PUMS), a relatively new data source with a rich set of economic and demographic variables. Fully implemented nationwide for the first time in 2005, the ACS became the largest household survey in the United States with a sample of almost 3 million addresses. The analysis using the ACS finds that the Hispanic population is significantly different from the general population, particularly in the areas of age distribution, educational attainment, and economic well-being. Compared with the general population, the Hispanic segment is younger and is characterized by lower levels of educational attainment and a higher rate of poverty. The Hispanic Social Security beneficiary population also differs significantly from the general beneficiary population in the same areas. In contrast, the Hispanic and general SSI populations are more comparable with regard to age and economic status and differ significantly only with regard to education.     

Crisis leadership styles—Bligh versus Gillard: a content analysis of Twitter posts on the Queensland floods

This paper presents a quantitative and qualitative content analysis of Twitter posts mentioning Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard during the 2011 Queensland flood crisis. The contrast in the perceived styles of the two leaders is analysed using the theory of transformational leadership as a framework. The implications for effective leadership communication in a crisis are discussed, notably, strategies for instilling pride and gaining respect and trust. The study also highlights the emerging role of Twitter in setting the media agenda at times of fast‐breaking news. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Imitating the West? Evidence on Administrative Reform from the Upper Echelons of Chinese Provincial Government

This article explores the attitudes of officials in the upper echelons in Chinese provincial and local government toward the origins of administrative reform. The authors examine the somewhat dichotomous argument that reform imitates the West or is indigenous and contend that both influences are present. Data drawn from a survey of party cadres and government officials show that cultural factors (time in government, overall knowledge of administrative reforms, together with familiarity with the move from a planned system of government to a market economy) and structural variables (upper echelon and familiarity with business management techniques) are correlated with learning from the West. Cadres and officials who spend more time managing outward and those who are familiar with performance assessment do not learn from the West. The theoretical and research implications of these findings—that learning from the West is an important influence on the adoption of administrative reforms in China—are discussed.     

Who should supervise students during self-report interviews? A controlled experiment on response behavior in online questionnaires

Objectives  

This study tests whether juveniles’ responses on sensitive topics such as self-reported delinquency, victimization, and substance use are comparable when teachers versus external persons supervise students while filling out online questionnaires.     

200 Jahre und immer noch weise? – Von der Lebenskraft des ABGB heute

Das ABGB wurde am 1. 6. 1811 kundgemacht und ist am 1. 1. 1812 in Kraft getreten. Aus Anlass seines 200. Jahrestages wurden zahlreiche Veranstaltungen abgehalten. Der folgende Beitrag beruht auf einem Vortrag, der anl?sslich der Pr?sentation der Festschrift 200 Jahre ABGB bei einer vom ?sterreichischen Juristentag und dem Bundesministerium für Justiz organisierten Festveranstaltung gehalten wurde. Der Verfasser greift darin den erstmals vor 100 Jahren von Franz Klein formulierten Topos von der Lebenskraft des ABGB auf und versucht eine kritische Bewertung aus heutiger Perspektive.