Voter Choice in the 1995 French Presidential Election

This study estimates a model of voter choice for the first and second ballots of the 1995 French Presidential election. Its objective is to characterize the relative importance of traditional bases of French voter choice such as social class relative to campaign issues and voter evaluations of the economy. The study also seeks to identify candidate-specific bases of voter choice. Multinomial logit analysis of voter choice among the four leading candidates reveals a stronger role for campaign issues than previous studies suggest. Voter-candidate ideological proximity is the strongest predictor of first and second ballot choice, followed by voter perceptions of candidate ability to address unemployment and political corruption. Demographic variables have limited explanatory power in both the first and second ballot models. The parameter estimates demonstrate considerable differences in the bases of voter choice across candidates, with the bases of voter choice for National Front leader Jean-Marie le Pen most distinct from those of the remaining candidates.     

Executive Succession and the Performance of Public Organizations

A theoretical framework is developed for the analysis of the impact of executive succession in public organizations. The central concepts in the model are the motives of chief executives, the means at their disposal and the opportunities available for influencing performance. The main hypothesis that flows from the model is that the effect of executive succession is likely to be small but significant. Furthermore, the strength of the impact of succession is contingent on a variety of external and internal circumstances. Seventeen testable hypotheses concerning these contingency effects are presented as a research agenda for studies of top management change in the public sector. The theoretical arguments are illustrated with reference to UK local government.     

青少年犯罪预防理论的研究视角：从犯罪原因到犯罪断念的转向

断念是行为主体(特别是青少年越轨者或犯罪人)在一段稳定的时期内对犯罪偏好明显与确定的拒绝。现阶段犯罪预防措施通过控制青少年犯罪原因遏制青少年犯罪增长趋势,绩效前景颇为黯淡。从聚焦于犯罪原因分析到致力于犯罪断念研究的战略性转向将成为当代社会犯罪预防的重要突破。作为人生状态与行为过程的犯罪断念,在静态结构与动态运行的结合中发挥青少年犯罪预防的积极效果。     

Book reviews

E. Glyn Lewis, Multilingualistn in the Soviet Union: aspects of language policy and its implementation. The Hague and Paris: Mouton, 1971. xx+332pp. Dfl 62.

L. G. Churchward, The Soviet Intelligentsia. An essay on the social structure and roles of Soviet intellectuals during the 196os. London and Boston: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1973. xiii + 204 pp. £3.25.

Galia Golan, Reform Rule in Czechoslovakia. The Dubcek Era 1968–1969. Cambridge: at the University Press, 1973. Vii + 327 pp. £5.80. $18.50.

Otto Ul?, The Judge in a Communist State. A View from Within. Athens, Ohio: Ohio UP, 1972. xiv + 307 pp. $8.75.

Robert M. Slusser, The Berlin Crisis of 1961: Soviet‐American relations and the struggle for power in the Kremlin, June‐November 1961. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins UP, 1973. xvi + 509 pp. $17.50. £7.90.

Edward Taborsky, Communist Penetration of the Third World. New York: Robert Speller & Sons, 1973. iii + 500 pp. $12.50.

Philip R. Pryde, Conservation in the Soviet Union. London: Cambridge UP, 1972. xv + 301 pp. £5.00.

Marshall I. Goldman, The Spoils of Progress: Environmental Pollution in the Soviet Union. Cambridge, Mass, and London: The M.I.T. Press, 1972. xi + 372 pp. $7.95. £3.60.

Robert H. McNeal, Bride of the Revolution. Krupskaya and Lenin. London: Victor Gollancz, 1973. 326 pp. £3.60.

George Katkov et al. (eds.), Russia Enters the Twentieth Century 1894–1917. London: Methuen, 1973. 352 pp. £1.50 (paperback).

Paul Craig Roberts and M. Stephenson, Marx's Theory of Exchange, Alienation and Crisis. Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press, 1973. 127 pp. $5.50.

W. H. Parker, The Russians: How They Live and Work. Newton Abbot: David & Charles, 1973. 179 pp. £2.50.

Wright Miller, Who are the Russians? A History of the Russian People. London: Faber & Faber, 1973. 240 pp. £3.95.