Choosing appropriate techniques for socio-political forecasting

After defining scientific forecasting, the crucial role of assumptions in such forecasts is explicated. This is followed by a discussion of the representations upon which forecasting systems are based. Six variables are then introduced to capture differences in socio-political forecasting circumstances: level of detail, accuracy, agreement on problem representation, robustness-brittleness, number of variables and interdependencies, and disturbance. A categorization of forecasting approaches - expert based, Bayesian, extremal statistical, and rule based - is offered. These forecasting approaches are then cross-referenced with the forecasting circumstances to produce recommendations for choosing an appropriate forecasting technique in a given policy circumstance. Most examples in the article are drawn from the realm of foreign policy and international politics, and the cross-referencing section concentrates on foreign energy policy examples.     

The spatial distribution of public services: A structural model of voting,educational production,and the government's allocation of educational inputs

This essay analyzes the intrajurisdictional allocation of public resources by a governmental agency, using education as the example. The agency's decision is guided, in part, by the pReferences of voters within each subarea of the jurisdiction. Voter's choices are influenced by the likely allocation of additional resources resulting from passage of a tax levy, and the tax cost of the levy. After deriving predictions of the relationships between the variables of the model, we estimate a simultaneous equation system. Included are equations specifying the educational production function, voting decisions, and bureaucratic resource allocation. This essay also notes the biases present in prior studies that only considered the ‘demand side’ of voting models.     

Detection of malingering in competency to stand trial evaluations

A simulation design with multiple contrast groups was used to test the effectiveness of two instruments, the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms (SIRS) and the Georgia Court Competency Test—Mississippi State Hospital (GCCT-MSH) in detecting malingering of competency to stand trial. Thirty simulators were compared with 23 incompetent defendants, 25 competent defendants, 30 offender controls, and 7 suspected malingerers on both instruments. Results revealed that the simulators and suspected malingerers scored significantly higher on all of the SIRS primary scales and significantly lower on the GCCT-MSH than the three comparison groups. The SIRS had an overall hit rate of 97.8% using three or more primary scales as the criterion for malingering. Information concerning the simulator's strategies of deception is presented.     

The Consummate Comparative Public Administrationist: A Tribute to Ferrel Heady, 1916–2006

Ferrel Heady died on August 16, 2006, at his home in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Together with Fred Riggs, he is widely known and respected as one of the founders of comparative public administration. In this tribute to our friend and colleague, we touch on the highlights of his distinguished career as a scholar, an academic administrator, and a person who lived up to his own high standards of honesty and integrity in every aspect of his life. We assess his body of work, attempt to summarize its significance, and reproduce comments about him sent to us by his friends and colleagues. This tribute is accompanied by reflections on Ferrel written by Fred Riggs.     

Conducting Research on Counties in the 21st Century: A New Agenda and Database Considerations

Given local, regional, national, and global events of the last few years and the ever-increasing service roles and expectations of county governments, American counties warrant greater scholarly attention. To guide researchers, the research agenda published in this journal 15 years ago has been refined and expanded. This 11-point agenda includes fiscal capacity and responsibility; the role of structure, politics, and political participation; intergovernmental relations and networking; professionalism; service delivery; environmental issues; population changes; managing conflict and promoting integration; terrorism and security; information technology; and economic development. In addition, five database concerns and needs that pose significant challenges to researchers are identified and presented for consideration.     

Where have all the parties gone? Fraenkel and Grofman on the alternative vote – yet again

The alternative vote (AV) is a preferential electoral system that tends to reward political moderation and compromise. Fraenkel and Grofman (2004, 2006a, 2006b) have repeatedly attempted to show that AV is not conducive to interethnic moderation in severely divided societies. In this response to their latest attempt, I point out that neither political party coordination of the vote nor strategic voting plays any part in their analysis. In contrast, I explain how moderate parties of one ethnic group are able to induce their supporters to cast ballots for moderate parties supported by voters of another ethnic group. I also explain why the incentives for parties to arrange interethnic vote transfers are much greater under AV than they are under systems such as the single transferable vote, which is in use in Northern Ireland, and I show that Fraenkel and Grofman”s interpretations of AV’s operation in Australia, Fiji, Sri Lanka, and Papua-New Guinea are contrary to the evidence.     

An unusual rubber stamp case

Given a questioned document and a questioned pre-inked rubber stamp, comparisons of each can be made with a microscope or similar magnification device. If sufficient evidence exists, these questioned items can be linked even if the stamp was not used as it was originally designed.