Three scenarios for the future of China

As we begin to think about the twenty-first century, we are entering a time of fundamental global change. the most dramatic shift will be the movement of China to the status of great power. Yet, the only specific forecast for the future of China that we can make with confidence is that a straight-line extrapolation is most unlikely to occur. China will not continue to grow at double digit rates for the coming decade. Nor is the rest of Southeast Asia going to grow at the 8 percent that has been registered for the past decade and more. Nor is everything going to go smoothly.     

NEW ISSUES IN POLICY ANALYSIS—OR AN OLD AGENDA?

The logic of policy analysis in Grover Starling's critique of my article was but a vehicle for his real concern, which is a scathing attack on the Nicaraguan revolution. His criticism that I didnlt use comparative data confuses levels of analysis since my study does not focus on the national level. His argument about the contras not operating in the cotton region fails because the Sandinistas were active and successful there. tie also is mistaken in equating contra aggression with the activity of the Sandinistas against the people of the Atlantic Coast; Sandinistas have committed little in the way of human rights violations. The contras are not llrebels" but really dominated by followers of Somoza. The need for honest and open dialog about Nicaragua is not served by Starlingls veiling of his political agenda within a methodological analysis.     

Language, myths and rhetoric

Political language can evoke a set of mythic beliefs in subtle and powerful ways. Murray Edelman is professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He has been a consultant to various national and state commissions concerned with economics planning and collective bargaining. He has published widely in the fields of political psychology, labor management relations and public policy. His recent workds include The Symbolic Uses of Politics, Politics as Symbolic Action: Mass Arousal and Quiescenceand American Polities: Public Policy, Conflict and Change.