Quantifying the Accuracy of Forensic Examiners in the Absence of a “Gold Standard”

This study asked whether latent class modeling methods and multiple ratings of the same cases might permit quantification of the accuracy of forensic assessments. Five evaluators examined 156 redacted court reports concerning criminal defendants who had undergone hospitalization for evaluation or restoration of their adjudicative competence. Evaluators rated each defendant’s Dusky-defined competence to stand trial on a five-point scale as well as each defendant’s understanding of, appreciation of, and reasoning about criminal proceedings. Having multiple ratings per defendant made it possible to estimate accuracy parameters using maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches, despite the absence of any “gold standard” for the defendants’ true competence status. Evaluators appeared to be very accurate, though this finding should be viewed with caution.     

Legal regulation of the drug khat in Australia

The plant Catha edulis, known more commonly as khat, has been consumed for centuries for its stimulatory effects, especially by people living in East Africa. As people from Somalia, Ethiopia and other East African countries have migrated to Australia, they have brought with them the practice of chewing khat. This article examines the claims made about the effects of khat on health and wellbeing and explores the approaches to the regulation of khat in Australia and overseas. The article concludes with a discussion of some of the concerns associated with current regulatory approaches and makes some suggestions for reform.     

Using local longitudinal records to estimate transient and resident homeless populations

Abstract

Many local agencies that provide services to the homeless have only limited data and resources to estimate the extent of need or the size of the local population at risk of requiring the services they provide. Methods exist, however, that are capable of providing reasonable estimates of underlying service populations with minimal record keeping. In this paper one group of such models, first‐capture models, is discussed as a resource‐efficient technique for estimating the underlying population consistently at risk ("residents") and those occasionally at risk ("transients") of requiring agency services.     

Mapping Urban Revitalization: Using GIS Spatial Analysis to Evaluate a New Housing Policy

This longitudinal, multimethod study uses geographical information system (GIS) software to evaluate the community-wide impact of a neighborhood revitalization project. Unsystematic visual examination and analysis of GIS maps are offered as a complementary tool to quantitative analysis and one that is much more compelling, meaningful, and effective in presentation to community and nonscientific professional audiences. The centerpiece of the intervention was the development of a new, middle-class housing subdivision in an area that was declining physically and economically. This represents three major urban/housing policy directions: (1) the emphasis on home ownership for working-class families, (2) the deconcentration of poverty through development of mixed-income neighborhoods, and (3) the clean up and redevelopment of contaminated, former industrial brownfields. Resident survey responses, objective environmental assessment observations, and building permit data were collected, geocoded at the address level, and aggregated to the block level on 60 street blocks in the older neighborhoods surrounding the new housing in two waves: during site clearing and housing construction (Time 1: 1993–95) and three years post-completion (Time 2: 1998–99). Variables mapped include (a) Time 1–2 change in self-reported home repairs and improvements, (b) change in the assessed physical condition of yards and exteriors of 925 individual residential properties, (c) change in residents' home pride, and (d) a city archive of building permits at Time 2. Physical conditions improved overall in the neighborhood, but spatial analysis of the maps suggest that the spillover effects, if any, of the new housing were geographically limited and included unintended negative psychological consequences. Results argue for greater use of GIS and the street block level in community research and of psychological and behavioral variables in planning research and decisions.     

Political Homophily and Collaboration in Regional Planning Networks

We study the extent of political homophily—the tendency to form connections with others who are politically similar—in local governments’ decisions to participate in an important form of intergovernmental collaboration: regional planning networks. Using data from a recent survey of California planners and government officials, we develop and test hypotheses about the factors that lead local governments to collaborate within regional planning networks. We find that local governments whose constituents are similar politically, in terms of partisanship and voting behavior, are more likely to collaborate with one another in regional planning efforts than those whose constituents are politically diverse. We conclude that political homophily reduces the transaction costs associated with institutional collective action, even in settings where we expect political considerations to be minimal.     

Postmodern War in the Age of Bush II

This study charts the genealogy and development of new trends in high-tech warfare that have emerged in the past decade, focusing on both the challenges and dangers. Attention is devoted to the Bush administration's military program and foreign policy moves, highlighting the ways Bush II intensifies the dangers of high-tech war while undermining efforts at collective security, environmental protection, and global peace. The argument here is that the volatile mixture of highly regressive, unilateralist, and militarist tendencies combined with high-tech weapons provides a clear and present danger of a protracted and frightening period of war. This mixture dramatically erupted in Bush's military response to the terrorist attacks of September 11 and is currently intensifying dangers to world peace in the campaign some are labeling "World War III."     

Reviews and commentary

Lifting bob Woodward's veil

Bob Woodward : VEIL : The Secret Wars of the CIA 1981–1987 Simon &; Schuster, New York, 1987, 543 p., $21.95.

His “Cover” Is Undercover

Steve Posner: Israel Undercover: Secret Warfare &; Hidden Diplomacy in the Middle East Syracuse University Press, Syracuse, N.Y., 1987, 350 p., $17.95.

Democracy and Intelligence: An Uneasy Compatibility

Stephen J. Cimbala, ed.: Intelligence and Intelligence Policy in a Democratic Society Transnational Publishers, Dobbs Ferry, N.Y., 262 p., $37.50.

A Much‐Needed Primer

Herbert E. Meyer: R eal‐ World In teltigence. Weidenfeld &; Nicolson, New York, 1987, 102 p., $14.95.

Agee Finds Two Friends

Jonathan Bloch and Patrick Fitzgerald (introduction by Philip Agee): British Intelligence and Covert Action Brandon Book Publishers Ltd., Kerry, Ireland, 1983, 284 p., PB, $9.95.

Questionable Secrets‐Questionable Sources

Fabrizio Calviand Olivier Schmidt: Intelligences secretes — Annales de l'espionnage Hachette, Paris, 1988, 309 p., 148 Fr. fr.

Scaling the Wall

Vladimir Solovyov and Elena Klepikova: Behind the High Kremlin Walls Dodd, Mead, New York, 1986, 248 p., $17.95.

The USSR As a Counterintelligence State

John J. Dziak: Chekisty: A History of the KGB Heath/Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 1988, 234 p., $17.95.