A validation study of the Competency Screening Test

This study was designed to assess the utility of the Competency Screening Test (CST) as a method of determining competency to stand trial. Fifty male residents of a state forensic unit were administered the CST. These residents were later interviewed by the Forensic Team who determined whether they were competent to stand trial. The CST correctly predicted the competency recommendations of the Forensic Team in 82 percent of the 50 cases. These data are consistent with previous research, and suggest that the CST should be further investigated as a preliminary screening instrument in the determination of competency to stand trial.     

New estimates of U.S. currency abroad,the domestic money supply and the unreported economy

Despite financial innovations that have created important new substitutes for cash usage, per capita holdings of U.S. currency amount to $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a 287 billion windfall for U.S. taxpayers. Overseas currency stock data are also used to derive estimates of the domestically held stock of currency as well as narrow and broad measures of domestic monetary aggregates. These domestic monetary aggregates are believed to be better predictors of future economic activity than traditional monetary aggregates and are tested to determine their ability to predict fluctuations in real output and prices. Domestic cash holdings are finally used to estimate the size of the U.S. unreported economy as measured by the amount of income that is not properly reported to the IRS. By 2010, we estimate that legal and illegal source unreported income” is $1.9–$1.9–2.4 trillion, implying a “tax gap” in the range of $400–$400–540 billion. Currently, we estimate that 18–23% of total reportable income is not properly reported to the IRS.     

America’s unreported economy: measuring the size, growth and determinants of income tax evasion in the U.S.

This study empirically investigates the extent of noncompliance with the tax code and examines the determinants of federal income tax evasion in the U.S. Employing a refined version of Feige’s (Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund 33(4):768–881, 1986, 1989) General Currency Ratio (GCR) model to estimate a time series of unreported income as our measure of tax evasion, we find that 18–23% of total reportable income may not properly be reported to the IRS. This gives rise to a 2009 “tax gap” in the range of $390–$390–540 billion. As regards the determinants of tax noncompliance, we find that federal income tax evasion is an increasing function of the average effective federal income tax rate, the unemployment rate, the nominal interest rate, and per capita real GDP, and a decreasing function of the IRS audit rate. Despite important refinements of the traditional currency ratio approach for estimating the aggregate size and growth of unreported economies, we conclude that the sensitivity of the results to different benchmarks, imperfect data sources and alternative specifying assumptions precludes obtaining results of sufficient accuracy and reliability to serve as effective policy guides.     

Comment on Jill Khadduri's “should the housing voucher program become a state‐administered block grant?”

Abstract

The stated goal of the Housing Act of 1949 is “a decent home and suitable living environment for every American family.” It is time that we delivered on that commitment. Contrary to popular opinion, this does not require spending more money on housing assistance. It can be achieved without additional funds by shifting all funds from less cost‐effective methods for delivering housing assistance to choice‐based vouchers as soon as current contractual commitments permit and by gradually reducing the large subsidies to current voucher recipients. The proposal to replace the Housing Choice Voucher Program with a block grant to states can contribute to this goal by precluding the use of the block grant funds for project‐based assistance, increasing the targeting of assistance to the poorest families, and including the fraction of recipients with extremely low incomes in the formula for determining the performance rating of state programs.     

On the Relationship between Violent Conflict and Wages in Colombia

We analyse how forced displacements caused by violent conflict are related to the wages of workers in Colombia. Using data from the Quality of Life Survey (2011–2014), we analyse the differences in wages between those forced by violence to move to other regions, and those who moved for other reasons. We apply Propensity Score Matching techniques to compare workers from the two groups, finding that forced displacement is related to decreases of between 10 and 29 per cent in the wages of males, and between 18 and 37 per cent in the wages of females, relative to their counterparts. Thus, forced displacements are related to poorer labour market outcomes in terms of wages.     

IRA leadership problems

Abstract

The present leadership of the IRA has been in power for about five years, and appears to be a tight, collective one, with determination to fight a long terrorist campaign until the British government is forced to abandon Northern Ireland. Behind that firm façade are doubts and uncertainties, such as whether the IRA will in fact be able to sustain a long campaign in the face of improved antiterrorist measures. The article traces the development of the leadership, its differences, the reasons for the split between the “Officials” and the “Provisionais,” and the appearance of the Irish National Liberation Army splinter.     

Prediction of race using characteristics of dental morphology

Historically, forensic anthropology has concentrated on race determination using skeletal morphological variation. Conversely, dental anthropology has been concerned with worldwide patterns of dental morphological variation. This paper represents a synthesis of the goals of forensic anthropology with the methods of dental anthropology. Dentitions of modem African Americans (n = 110) and European Americans (n = 155) were observed using methods based on the Arizona State University dental morphology standards. Of 136 characters observed, eight were found with frequencies that were very different between the groups. Based on these eight characteristics, probability tables were created for determining an individual's social race, using both Bayesian prediction and logistic regression. These tables are applicable for determining the probability that an unknown individual can be categorized as African American or European American. This method was tested on 40 individuals known to belong in one of these two ancestral groups. Correct assignment of race was made in 90% of cases.