Actuarial risk assessment: Reflections on an emerging social-scientific tool

The purpose of this paper is to highlight recent developments in the practice of empirical social research, paying particular attention to the relationship between social-science practice, social-control strategies, and the role of interpretive frame-works. The essay describes how the social-scientific emphasis on quantification within a value-neutral framework corresponds to an overall reluctance within the social sciences to evaluate the phenomena of social life within an historical and moral context. Within this framework, it is argued that actuarial risk assessment, as a social science practice, meets the managerial needs of advanced industrial societies by legitimating interpretive frameworks which focus primarily on prediction as the main criterion in understanding social processes and by producing concrete technologies which facilitate the management effort. This essay calls upon quantitative social scientists to reflect upon the ways in which our practices and products may inadvertently project value positions that ought not be promoted without critical evaluation. This essay won first place in the 1998 American Society of Criminology Graduate Student Paper Competition sponsored by the Division on Critical Criminology. I wish to thank Drs. Patrick Akard, Henry J. Steadman, and John Monahan for commenting on an earlier draft of this essay.     

Renewing IMF surveillance: Transparency, accountability, and independence

In this paper, we present a vision for IMF surveillance that seeks to produce a more accountable, transparent, and independent surveillance process. First, to make surveillance more focused, the IMF’s assessment should be principles-based; that is, the Fund should assess the overall coherence of exchange rate, monetary, fiscal and financial policies, with a view to analyzing their effects on external stability. Second, the IMF should have a governance structure that increases incentives to support candid, transparent assessments of surveillance. In practice, this entails a different role for the Executive Board: the Board will set out the Fund’s strategic framework for surveillance; the Managing Director and the staff will conduct surveillance. These reforms clarify the roles and responsibilities of the IMF and its member countries in the surveillance process. Also, our proposed reforms aim at making surveillance more even-handed and objective. We believe that this principles-based approach can bolster the credibility and legitimacy of surveillance, giving the Fund greater influence on the economic policies of members.

Guiding Regionalism and Reform from the Court: Judge John Feikens

For decades, federal district court judges have been deeply involved in the reform of state and local government agencies. Some scholars describe such a judicial role in institutional reform as “managerial.” This profile examines the managerial role of Judge John Feikens, who, since 1977, has supervised the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department's attempts to comply with federal laws on wastewater treatment and water quality. Through his sustained, effective oversight, Feikens became an influential mediator of metropolitan cooperation. His persistence in resolving metropolitan conflict may be viewed with concern by those who worry about lengthy court involvement in public administration. However, this insightful profile underscores poignant contemporary lessons, even from judicial actions, for enhancing metropolitan problem solving.     

Global scientific production,international cooperation,and knowledge evolution of public administration

Public administration is a discipline with considerable history, and is also a diverse, interdisciplinary field in social science. To analyze its evolution, discover the present research foci, and predict future development trends, this study applied scientometrics visualization technology to evaluate over 72,000 scientific articles from the 1920s to 2020s. This research referred to the SSCI and JCR databases to gather scientific data of the discipline and the journals' impact factor. Consequently, paper citations, cited journals, journal co-citations, author co-citations, authoritative papers, top countries, productive institutes, average references, and research collaboration trends were analyzed on the bases of the published literature. This study found top productive journals in the discipline, discovered productive countries and institutes, present the research foci, and predicted future development trends. Through this study, scientific production, international cooperation, and knowledge evolution mode of public administration research offers a clear knowledge map of the public administration discipline.     

The roadmap to net-zero emission: Do geopolitical risk and energy transition matter?

Global crises have heightened policy uncertainties and efforts to address global climate change. Limited evidence exists in the literature on geopolitical risk's direct and indirect roles in addressing global emissions. In this study, we examine whether geopolitical risk could impede or facilitate efforts to attain a net-zero emissions target through energy transition using panel data for 42 countries from 1990 to 2020. Various econometric techniques were applied in this study to present robust findings and reliable conclusions. Estimates from the Driscoll-Kraay, Lewbel two-stage least squares and method of moment regression techniques consistently showed that countries' geopolitical risk directly increases emissions (total greenhouse gas, carbon, methane, and nitrous oxide). At the same time, energy transition, measured with renewable energy consumption, mitigates these emissions. In addition, evidence from the partial linear functional-coefficient model technique indicates that renewable energy consumption consistently mitigates emissions when geopolitical is minimal (at a minimum and mean level). However, the role of renewable energy consumption in reducing emissions becomes weaker when geopolitical risk is heightened—thus, when geopolitical risk reaches its maximum level. We recommend that efforts to sustain renewable energy transition and maintain geopolitical stability are vital for achieving net-zero emissions and climate change mitigation.     

A Silver‐Stain Modification of Standard Histological Slide Preparation for Use in Anthropology Analyses

The traditional histology method typically employed by forensic anthropologists involves plastic embedding of undecalcified bone. The embedded sample is then cut by a diamond blade saw and ground to the required thickness of ~50–100 microns using a grinder. There are several limitations to this method: Cement lines may be blurred; depth‐of‐field artifacts may result from viewing thick sections; and medicolegal offices with limited budgets may not be able to invest in additional equipment or training for this method. A silver nitrate stain modification of the standard histology preparation technique of decalcified bone is presented. The benefits of this technique are that: Cement lines are viewed clearly; no depth‐of‐field artifacts are present; and because this is a modification of the standard technique used by histology laboratories typically employed by medicolegal offices, no additional equipment or training is required.     

Evaluation of canine training aids containment for homemade explosive and components by headspace analysis and canine testing

While canines are most commonly trained to detect traditional explosives, such as nitroaromatics and smokeless powders, homemade explosives (HMEs), such as fuel–oxidizer mixtures, are arguably a greater threat. As such, it is imperative that canines are sufficiently trained in the detection of such HMEs. The training aid delivery device (TADD) is a primary containment device that has been used to house HMEs and HME components for canine detection training purposes. This research assesses the odor release from HME components, ammonium nitrate (AN), urea nitrate (UN), and potassium chlorate (PC), housed in TADDs. Canine odor recognition tests (ORTs) were used with analytical data to determine the detectability of TADDs containing AN, UN, or PC. Headspace analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) with solid-phase microextraction (SPME) or online cryotrapping were used to measure ammonia or chlorine, as well as other unwanted odorants, emanating from bulk AN, UN, and PC in TADDs over 28 weeks. The analytical data showed variation in the amount of ammonia and chlorine over time, with ammonia from AN and UN decreasing slowly over time and the abundance of chlorine from PC TADDs dependent on the frequency of exposure to ambient air. Even with these variations in odor abundance, canines previously trained to detect bulk explosive HME components were able to detect all three targets in glass and plastic TADDs for at least 18 months after loading. Detection proficiency ranged from 64% to 100% and was not found to be dependent on either age of material.     

Measuring Partisan Bias in Single‐Member District Electoral Systems

In recent decades, the literature has coalesced around either symmetry or responsiveness as measures of partisan bias in single‐member district systems. I argue neither accurately captures the traditional idea of an “efficient” gerrymander, where one party claims more seats without more votes. I suggest a better measure of efficiency and then use this new measure to reconsider a classic study of partisan gerrymandering. Contrary to the original study findings, I show that the effects of party control on bias are small and decay rapidly, suggesting that redistricting is at best a blunt tool for promoting partisan interests.