Probabilistic Classification of Age by Third Molar Development: The Use of Soft Evidence

Abstract: This study introduces a method to classify individuals according to an age threshold, given sex and third molars’ dental maturity measured on the Demirjian scale by expressing uncertainty on dental evidence (soft evidence). We introduced a procedure to learn the parameters of the Naïve Bayes model, and we discussed two classification rules. The model was estimated and tested on 559 Italians aged 16–22. Two experts provided the dental evaluations, and the model was estimated for each of them. We evaluated the coherence of the evidence provided by the experts. Some indexes have been proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of the models, emphasizing how the experts’ ability and the technology affect the results. We introduced two benchmarks, one based on the sample distribution per sex and age: in this case, probability of correct classification increases 22% and the proportion of false adults impressively decreases 80.2%; the other benchmark, obtained by simulating hard evidence, shows how the use of soft evidence increases the proportion of correct classification 3.1% and decreases the crucial proportion of false adults about 20%. Similarly, the proportion of false minors decreases about 5.3%.     

Are we witnessing a paradigm shift in the analysis of political competition?

This presidential address assesses the crisis of the Downsian model of political competition in light of the mounting evidence on policy divergence and evaluates the possibility that the new theories of politicians’ quality and political selection provide an alternative theoretical conceptualization of political competition. Based on a critical review of the literature and on the author’s works on content analysis of policy speeches, income redistribution, politicians’ quality, and political legislation cycles, this address concludes that multidimensional Downsian models of political competition are adequate to explain policy divergence and points out the serious theoretical and empirical problems that models of political selection have to solve.     

New forms of industrial policy in the age of regulation: A comparison of electricity and telecommunications in Italy and Spain

Relying on insights from the comparative capitalism debate, this article compares the industrial policy strategies implemented by the Italian and Spanish governments to favor the internationalization of domestic electricity and telecommunications incumbents. It is shown how the cross‐sectoral and cross‐country variation in the outcome of their industrial policy efforts—that is, successful or unsuccessful internationalization—is explained by the reciprocal power relationship between governments and domestic large shareholders (“blockholders”). Successful internationalization is conditional on the availability of two power resources the government can use to influence blockholders' behavior: ownership power and regulatory power. When these resources were available, governments were able to impose a stable ownership structure on national champions, leading to successful internationalization. When they were not available, ownership instability led to failure. The findings presented here contribute to the debate on new forms of state involvement in the economy in the neoliberal era.     

Death secondary to a donkey's bites

We present a unique case of death due to the assault and bites of a donkey on a 65-year-old man. The farmer, found dead in his farmyard, had a very deep wound in the anterior region of the neck, with a sharp transection of the trachea and severe bleeding by several minor vessels wall disruptions. The cause of death was established to be massive bleeding combined with asphyxia due to aspiration of the blood. Moreover, multiple contusions with associated skin abrasions and perforations were present. The general impression of the injuries was consistent with an animal's bite marks. Herbivorous or omnivorous bite attacks on humans are rare; instead, these animals attack by kicking, trampling, and kneeling, resulting in secondary blunt injuries. The donkey is usually a docile animal, but its behavior can be aggressive during the mating season, and the possibility of biting should not be underestimated, as illustrated by the 2 cases published previously as well as by the case presented here.     

Acute flurazepam intoxication: a case report

A fatality due to ingestion of flurazepam is reported. Flurazepam is a benzodiazepine, a widely prescribed hypnotic drug for use in sleep disorders. There are only few documented reports of the disposition of flurazepam in deaths due to overdose. A 68-year-old woman was found deceased at home with no evidence of trauma or asphyxia. Toxicologic analyses were performed and drug levels measured by means of gas chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. The flurazepam concentration in each specimen was as follows: heart blood 2.8 microg/mL, bile 323 microg/mL, and urine 172 microg/mL. Presence of flurazepam into gastric content was observed too. Based on the autopsy findings, patient history, and toxicologic results, the cause of death was determined to be acute intoxication of flurazepam and the manner, suicide.     

Medicolegal aspects of an unusual uterine perforation with multiload-Cu 375R

Perforation of the uterus is one of the most serious complications associated with insertion of intrauterine contraceptive devices (IUD). According to recent studies, this lesion occurs in 0.87 per 1000 cases, but statistics generally fluctuate between 0.05 and 13 per 1000 insertions. "Primary" perforations occur at the time of IUD insertion, and "secondary," or delayed, perforations are usually assumed to be caused by reactive uterine contractions. We report an unusual case of uterine perforation, which occurred 9 days after the insertion of a Multiload-Cu 375 IUD. The criteria for differential diagnosis between primary and secondary complications are discussed, particularly from the perspective of medical malpractice cases.     

Thinking outside the box,improvisation, and fast learning: Designing policy robustness to deal with what cannot be foreseen

Policies are continually subjected to turbulence and crises. Interest in policy robustness as a fundamental way to deal with what cannot be foreseen is increasing. Thus, there is a flourishing stream of literature suggesting that policies need to be designed to be agile and flexible. However, the associated characteristics remain undeveloped. This article fills this gap by drawing on lessons obtained from the unplanned behaviors that were adopted in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Individual and organizational behaviors characterized by outside the box thinking, improvisation, and fast learning yielded solutions to unexpected problems. In this article, some of these emblematic unplanned behaviors are assessed, and the research builds on the literature on policy robustness, crisis management, and organizational theory to identify three enabling conditions to design more robust policies: coordinated autonomy, training for unplanned responses, and political institutional capacity.     

Women and Men who Committed Murder: Male/Female Psychopathic Homicides

The present study was designed to compare gender differences in psychiatric diagnosis with the dimension of psychopathy in women and men who had attempted or committed homicide. The study samples consisted of 39 homicidal females and 48 homicidal males who were confined in one of Italy’s REMS or prison facilities in two southern provinces of Italy (Puglia and Basilicata). Assessment instruments included the SCID-5, the PID-5 IRF, and the PCL-R. Each gender group was stratified according to the level of criminal responsibility for the homicidal offense (full, partial, absent), and after assessments, according to the degree of the psychopathic dimension. There were clear gender differences in homicidal individuals. Female offenders were less likely to have had a record of criminal charges/convictions or imprisonment, and their homicides were more often intrafamilial, victimizing especially of their children, whereas males targeted intimate partners and extrafamilial victims. In the entire group, there was an inverse relationship between the level of psychopathy and the personality disorder on one side, and the psychotic disturbance on the other. Factor 2 (lifestyle/antisocial dimension) of the PCL-R was higher among the homicidal males, whereas females tended to score higher on Factor 1 (the interpersonal/affective dimension). Finally, if the psychopathic dimension is a qualifier for antisocial personality disorder, as indicated in DSM-5, this appears to be less true for females who tend to have other personality disorders.