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71.
The study of ministerial careers in Germany is rather new. So far it has been mainly restricted to the federal level and to the career pathways up until cabinet exit. This article, by contrast, concentrates on the post-cabinet careers of regional ministers. Drawing from the scarce literature we first sketch out career patterns of regional ministers prior to and during their time in the regional cabinet. The main focus, though, is on the post-cabinet biographies of all regional ministers in the sixteen German Länder since unification. Our empirical analysis reveals the regional cabinet as the career apex for most ministers. Looking at those ministers who do move up the political ladder after leaving the cabinet shows a clear preference for the national over the European level and the executive office over the legislative mandate. Variation in post-cabinet careers seems not only to be influenced by party, Land and ministerial office (Prime Minister vs normal minister) but also by the causes and circumstances of exit from the cabinet (exit type). These empirical results represent a first step into a new research field – lying waste since Blondel's early attempt in 1991 – and will hopefully provide a starting point for more comprehensive and comparative analysis. 相似文献
72.
The probability of a voter being decisive (PD), that is, of one vote affecting the outcome of an election, has generally been incorrectly calculated for the last twenty or more years. The method normally used is due to Banzhaf (1968) and generalised by Beck (1974). It assumes that voters know in advance how many people will vote for each candidate, which is clearly not the case. The correct formulation was given by Good and Mayer in 1975, but was ignored and has subsequently been all but forgotten since then. A simple explanation of these methods is given. Using the incorrect method, errors of magnitude of more than 10100 in calculating PD correctly can be made. The appropriateness of using a decision-theoretic formulation instead of a game-theoretic one is also discussed. 相似文献
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