What If? The Historian and the Counterfactual

This essay lays out why many scholars, particularly historians, are inherently skeptical of counterfactuals. It highlights several of the most obvious errors that are often made by those undertaking counterfactual reasoning. It also highlights how these articles go a long way toward developing effective rules for the appropriate and most effective use of counterfactuals.     

Price discrimination in a rent-seeking economy

This paper examines the incentive and the consequences of using discriminatory pricing by a monopolist in a rent-seeking economy. It is shown that, even if all consumer groups' demands have identical elasticities at any given price, the monopolist has an incentive to charge a lower price to high pressure consumer groups so as to alleviate their rent-seeking efforts in challenging its monopolistic power. Furthermore, it is shown that by allowing the firm to price discriminate total welfare may increase, even if all rent-seeking expenditures are completely wasteful.     

Assessing the “will of the people”: an investigation into town service delivery satisfaction

Abstract: The “will of the people^‘’ is considered to be the highest authority in a democracy and said to be the driving force behind public policies. Yet not many past studies have assessed the level of citizen satisfaction with government services and identified ways of improving service delivery. At a municipal level, there is even less emphasis on measuring consumer satisfaction. This study measures citizens' satisfaction with municipal services in a town in Atlantic Canada. A taxonomy of government services based on user experience with the service and heterogeneity of consumer needs was developed and tested. Results indicate that while consumer satisfaction with municipal services is high, it does vary based on the nature of the service. Some action guidelines are suggested at the end of the paper to improve town service delivery. Sommaire: La «volonté du peuple» est considérée comme étant la plus haute autorité dans une démocratice, et l'on dit même que c'est elle qui est à l'origine des politiques publiques. Pourtant, peu d'études ont examiné le niveau de satisfaction du citoyen en ce qui concerne les services gouvernementaux et ont tenté de cerner les moyens permettant d'améliorer ces services. Au niveau municipal, on fait encore moins d'efforts pour mesurer la satisfaction des consommateurs. La présente étude mesure la satisfaction des citoyens à l'égard des services municipaux dans une ville située dans la région Atlantique du Canada. Une taxonomie des services gouvernementaux basée sur l'expérience des utilisateurs et sur l'hétérogénéité des besoins des consommateurs a été mise au point et testée. Les résultats indiquent que, bien que la satisfaction des consommateurs face aux services municipaux soit élevée, elle varie selon la nature de services. À la fin de l'article, on suggère quelques lignes directrices pour améliorer la prestation de services des villes.     

Correlates of romantic attachment: A path analysis study

A path-analytic study was undertaken to investigate the proposed relationship between physical attractiveness, need for intimacy, self-disclosure, thought about one's dating partner, and reported romantic love. Extrapolations from theories by Murstein (1971) and I. Reiss (1960), and conclusions from other empirical work, provided the background for the assessment of the relationship between the four proposed predictive factors and the development of romantic affect. During the winter of 1977-78 656 college students responded to a survey assessing each of the four predictors and romantic love. Path structures were initially estimated for male and female subsamples. Since few significant sex differences were noted, coefficients were compared for groups of students involved in dating relationships of varying durations. All four predictors were significantly associated with the subjects' self-reported romantic affect toward their dating partner. In all analyses, thinking about one's partner was found to be the most potent predictor. The data suggest the earlier work by Murstein and Reiss offer both testable and productive theoretical foundations for the study of romantic involvement. However, in future work it would be beneficial to (a) search for more numerous and powerful antecedents to romantic love; (b) delineate the specific role of cognitive processes in influencing romantic attachment; (c) compare relationships on criteria other than months of involvement; and (d) seek to examine love from the perspectives of both individuals involved in the dyadic relationship.Received her Ph.D. from the Pennsylvania State UniversityReceived his Ph.D. from The Pennsylvania State University.     

Comparison of the elemental composition of office document paper: evidence in a homicide case

Fraudulent substitution of a page within a multiple page document such as a will or business contract, the counterfeit manufacture of paper banknotes, and linking ransom or extortion notes have all been the focus of criminal investigations at one time or another. In a recent homicide investigation, document examiners were requested to compare a threatening letter received by a business partner of the deceased with paper samples seized under warrant from a suspect's house. Through a quantitative elemental analysis of the concentrations of nine elements (Na, Mg, Al, Mn, Sr, Y, Ba, La, and Ce) within the questioned and specimen documents, determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), it was concluded that (i) the paper of the threatening letter originated from a different source to that of the paper seized from the suspect's house and (ii) all six pages of paper seized from the suspect's house originated from the same source. This discrimination of paper is presented as both a statistical t-test analysis (99.9% confidence limit) as well as construction of an elemental fingerprint for individual replicates within the questioned and specimen sample populations. This is the first reported use of the comparison of the elemental composition of document paper, determined by ICP-MS, to assist in a criminal investigation.     

Psychosocial Resources in First-Year University Students: The Role of Identity Processes and Social Relationships

The investigation involved the assessment of a model predicting that family and university relationship environments are linked with identity processes and identity states (statuses) that predict psychosocial resources among first-year university students. A sample of 351 university students, between the ages of 18 and 21 years, completed measures of psychosocial maturity based on Erikson's notions of ego virtues, a measure of identity processing styles (diffuse-avoidant, normative, and information styles), identity statuses (diffusion, foreclosure, moratorium, and achievement), measures of family climate (conflict, expression, cohesion), and assessments of university relationships with faculty, advisors, and students. Based on linear structural equations, the model, with some adjustments, had a good fit with the data and demonstrates the complex association between perceived family and school climate, identity formation, and the association with psychosocial resources. The investigation demonstrates how multivariate model testing can be completed to assess some of the complexity suggested by Erik Erikson regarding identity formation. Gerald R Adams is a Professor of Family Relations and Human Development at the University of Guelph in Ontario, Canada. His major interests focus on family relations, identity development, education, and prevention. Michael Berzonsky is Professor of Psychology at State University of New York at Cortland, New York. His major interests are identity styles, social cognition, and adolescent development. Leo Keating is a data analyst at the University of Guelph.     

Does democracy “suffer” from diversity? Issue representation and diversity in senate elections

Several recent studies examine the degree to which congressional behavior affects candidates’ electoral fortunes (e.g., Carson, 2005). Research examining electoral competitiveness (Bond, Campbell, & Cottrill, 2001; Koetzle, 1998) and roll call voting (Bailey & Brady, 1998; Jones, 2003) finds that diversity in the electorate mediates the impact of numerous variables upon election outcomes and representation. However, the influence of diversity on other modes of representation – such as the policy positions taken by Senate candidates–remains unexplored. We investigate the link between representation and Senate candidates’ policy positions and thereby examine the degree to which voter diversity affects candidates’ policy responsiveness. We find that diversity significantly influences responsiveness, both directly and indirectly – candidates in homogenous states are more responsive to constituents than are candidates in heterogeneous states.