A better budget rule

Debt limits, interest coverage ratios, one‐off balanced budget requirements, pay‐as‐you‐go rules, and tax and expenditure limits are among the most important fiscal rules for constraining intertemporal transfers. There is considerable evidence that the least costly and most effective of such rules are those that focus directly on the rate of spending growth, even with their seemingly ad hoc nature and possibilities for circumvention. In this paper, we use optimal control theory and martingale methods to justify a transparent, nonarbitrary rule governing maximum sustainable rate of spending growth, treating the revenue structure of a jurisdiction as a given continuous‐time stochastic process. Our results can be used to determine whether a proposed rate of spending growth is sustainable or not. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

State Politics and the Right to Counsel: A Comparative Analysis

One of the most significant recent developments in the study of crime and justice is the emergence of theoretical explanations for the dramatic changes in criminal justice policy over the past few decades. These theoretical accounts address not only highly visible developments, such as the meteoric rise in incarceration rates, but also less-conspicuous shifts in due process and civil liberties, and they do so by attributing more-repressive policies to the emergence of a political culture that has substantially redefined crime and justice. This article focuses on an important due process issue, the legal representation of indigent defendants in criminal courts. We describe the state of indigent defense policy, particularly structure and funding, across the states in 2002, and analyze variation on two dimensions where states may exercise discretion: the extent to which states assume responsibility for funding services (rather than relying on local governments), and the generosity with which these programs are funded overall. We test hypotheses that link funding for services with the ideology of state political leadership, public values about tolerance and race relations, and states' public welfare policy climates. We find little support for the prediction that a welfare climate shapes more progressive indigent defense policies. However, the results suggest that the racial threat hypothesis helps account for spending on indigent defense, and that Republican control of the statehouse results in the perpetuation of local responsibility for program funding. Normative literature on indigent defense suggests that the patterns we observe may have important consequences for the quality of indigent defense services across states. Further, the findings reported here suggest that the politics of the punitive turn, as it has played out across the states, may be responsible not only for shifts in crime control policy, but for due process policy as well.     

Identification of a female murder victim found in Burgenland,Austria in 1993

In 1993, the skeletal remains of a female corpse were found in Burgenland, Austria. Initial identification of the approximately 25–35-year-old female appeared impossible, but the case was reopened 23 years later. By applying biogeochemical isotope methods to her body tissues, the geographical origin of the unknown corpse could be predicted. The results of the C, N, S, H, Sr, and Pb isotope analyses suggested that the female did not originate from Europe and most likely spent her youth in the northern Caribbean. Using these findings, the police were able to identify the woman within 2 weeks. The female came from the Dominican Republic and resided in Austria for only a short period before she was murdered. This case shows that isotope biogeochemistry investigations can provide the police with crucial information that enables unknown persons to be identified.

Keypoints

• C-N-S-H and Sr-Pb isotope analyses were applied to human remains associated with a cold case.
• It was possible to determine the region of origin of the unknown deceased individual as the northern Caribbean.
• After 23 years, the murder victim was successfully identified.

     

Religiosity and Alcohol Use in Sexual Minority and Heterosexual Youth and Young Adults

Despite interest in the role of religiosity in youth development and health behavior, few studies have examined these associations in sexual minority youth. Participants (n = 11,699) who were adolescents (wave 1) and young adults (wave 3) in the Add Health survey were used to examine proximal and distal religiosity by sexual identity group and to test group differences in associations between religiosity and alcohol use. Sexual minorities were less likely than heterosexuals to report a current religious affiliation. In young adulthood, heterosexual females reported significantly higher distal and proximal religiosity than heterosexual males and sexual minority young adults. From adolescence to young adulthood, religiosity in all three sexual identity groups (heterosexual, bisexual, gay/lesbian) significantly declined, with the largest effects found for the sexual minority groups. Distal and proximal religiosity scores were significantly associated with less alcohol use and less binge drinking among heterosexuals, but not among sexual minorities. Future studies of sexual minority youth and their religious contexts are suggested.

Tasmania's Tamar Valley Pulp Mill: A Comparison of Planning Processes Using a Good Environmental Governance Framework

In November 2004, the Tasmanian government requested the state's planning body, the Resource Planning and Development Commission (RPDC), to undertake an evaluation of a proposal to establish a pulp mill at Long Reach near Bell Bay on Tasmania's Tamar Estuary. In early 2007, Gunns Limited, the project's proponent, pulled out of the RPDC process and the government established an alternative, ‘fast‐track’ process under the Pulp Mill Assessment Act (PMAA). This article evaluates the RPDC and the PMAA assessment processes using a ‘good environmental governance’ framework composed of eight criteria – transparency, accountability, openness, balance, deliberation, efficiency, science and risk. The comparison reveals that although the RPDC process fell short of the ideal, it was markedly superior to the PMAA process that replaced it. The case highlights how political economic power can be used to the detriment of public planning and the communities and environment that rely on it.     

Opinion Polls,Coalition Signals and Strategic Voting: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Recent studies find that defection from one's most preferred party to some other party is as common under proportional representation (PR) as it is in plurality systems. It is less elaborated how election‐specific contextual factors affect strategic vote choice under PR. This study looks at the impact of two potentially important contextual factors: parties’ coalition signals about cooperation with other parties (referred to as ‘pre‐electoral coalitions’) and polling information, which vary from one election to the next. The focus is strategic voting for smaller parties at risk of falling below an electoral threshold. The hypothesis is that parties that are included in well‐defined coalitions will benefit from strategic ‘insurance’ votes if the polls show that they have support slightly below the threshold. However, smaller parties that do not belong to a coalition would be less likely to benefit from insurance votes. Extensive survey experiments with randomized coalition signals and polls give support to the idea that a voter's tendency to cast an insurance vote depends on whether the polls show support below or above the threshold and whether the party is included in a coalition or not.     

Egypt versus Ethiopia: The Conflict over the Nile Metastasizes

Egypt and Ethiopia continue to oppose one another over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River basin, despite a succession of provisional multilateral agreements. Officials in Cairo insist that Egypt be guaranteed its “historic rights” to two-thirds of the river’s flow, while their counterparts in Addis Ababa demand an “equitable” distribution of water among all of the riparian countries. More important, Sudan’s shift in alignment from Egypt to Ethiopia has injected new tension into the dispute, and the sustained involvement of South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda and Eritrea heightens the likelihood that periodic crises will escalate into armed confrontations. Consequently, existing studies that offer sanguine assessments of the potential for a compromise settlement fail to address the key dynamics that drive the conflict.     

Spies as Informants: Triangulation and the Interpretation of Elite Interview Data in the Study of the Intelligence and Security Services

This article examines the application of 'triangulation' to the use of elite interviewing in political science, with specific reference to the study of the intelligence and security services. It is argued that the problems involved in using elite interviews in security and intelligence studies are no different than in other areas of political science, but simply more pronounced. It is further argued that these problems can be most effectively addressed in terms of the sociological 'triangulation' strategy of multi-methodological research. The article concludes that this approach is, moreover, generally applicable to political studies at large.     

The Comparative Study of Jokes

Jokes can only properly be studied comparatively and in relation to differences in the social structure and culture of the two or more countries where they are told. This is best done by looking at how joke cycles, large aggregates of jokes, change as they move between two countries that have the same language. American stupidity jokes about Poles and blondes changed significantly when they came to be told in Britain about the Irish and about Essex Girls, even though the same themes were employed. The changes can be related to the greater British willingness openly to acknowledge and to joke about class distinctions and to their not sharing the American obsession with hygiene, purity and physical perfection. American lawyer jokes are told in Britain not as local jokes about lawyers but as specifically American jokes about American lawyers. In Britain power and decision making lie with Parliament not judges and lawyers, a utilitarian not a rights political philosophy prevails and there is no sacred written constitution. In America there is far more respect for ‘the law’ and lawyers can not possibly live up to these expectations. In Britain to be a lawyer is just one more job and the lawyers do it honestly and unremarkably.     

加拿大面对的北极挑战:主权、安全与认同

由于全球暖化对北极地区产生的影响,使得北极资源开采与航运的战略价值再度成为人们关注的亮点。西北航道开通的可能性,以及北极蕴藏的丰富石油、天然气与矿物,让观察家认为加拿大北极主权问题将再度成为争议的核心。美加之间多年来关于西北航道控制权的争议,以及环北极国家之间因大陆架延伸的重叠而发生纠纷,并非一定会导致冲突,相反地,透过协调与外交斡旋或许对各方更有利。加拿大北极主权问题,其实也是认同问题,而加拿大必须展现对北极地区更多的投入意愿。