PLEA BARGAINING AS A GAME: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF NEGOTIATED SENTENCING DECISIONS

Current studies of courtroom decisionmaking emphasize contextual variation and the interaction of large numbers of variables In explaining decision outcomes. However, theory suggests that courtroom decisions may be dominated by simple "rules of thumb" that allow decisionmakers to cope with scarcity of time and resources. Following this approach, a parslmonious model of plea bargaining as a two-person game is developed and hypotheses are derived. Data on negotiated sentences for burglary and robbery in three California counties serve to test the hypotheses. The findings confirm that prior criminal history is the dominant factor in determining the severity of negotiated sentences and that defendents with more extensive prior records have less incentive to plea bargalh. Identlfication of this decision rule for negotiated sentences contradlcts arguments for limiting plea bargaining that assume negotiations result in sentencing leniency across the board.     

Toward a Regulatory Budget

A regulatory budget would require the federal government to treat compliance costs incurred by the private sector as if they were incurred by the government, without requiring the government to actually assume those costs. For example, EPA could be given a regulatory compliance budget of say $80 billion in FY98. A regulatory budget would provoke an annual debate in Congress on the size of EPA's or OSHA's budget. Such a debate would force the proponents to weigh the benefits and costs of various regulatory programs, something now lacking in the political process.
Interest in a regulatory budget reflects the slight gains in the quality of regulatory decision making resulting from mandatory regulatory review. It is now apparent that better information about the costs, benefits, and distributional consequences of regulation will not automatically improve regulatory decision making-although it would not hurt.     

Vox Populi? Oregon Tax and Expenditure Limitation Initiatives

This article provides a brief history of tax and expenditure limitation initiatives in Oregon, along with a narrative of contemporary events. Largely as a consequence of the initiative's increased role in the formulation of Oregon's fiscal policy, state and local taxes paid by Oregon households declined from 7.4 percent of income in 1989 to 6.8 percent in 2003; state revenue, which is heavily dependent upon personal income taxes, has become increasingly income elastic; and state and local governments now rely on user fees to an almost unprecedented degree.     

Balancing conflicting goals: The big challenge for governments

Australians are now reaping the economic fruits of two decades of reform and structural change. But they are being asked to turn their backs on egalitarian values once considered untouchable. This article examines key changes and applies two tests: first, could Australia have achieved broadly the same economic benefits with less equity sacrifice; and, second, did the shift in policy values towards individualism and materialism adequately reflect the community's own preferences and priorities? The article suggests that the economic and social policy revolution of the last two decades does not fully meet these tests. The policy trade‐offs could have been managed better.     

The Face of the State

From a liberal perspective, policies designed to permit the participation of minorities in national institutions while retaining their cultural particularities are justified either on the grounds that culture has a particular importance or on the basis of equal treatment of individuals. This paper argues that such policies, while not without benefits, have at least the potential to compromise the perceived neutrality of an important state institution. It focuses on the Canadian decision to permit the use of religious symbols as part of the uniform of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Advocates of such policies focus only on their benefits and ignore the potential difficulties; the paper argues that a more balanced assessment is required, one which weights advantages and disadvantages.     

IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF RESEARCH SYNTHESIS IN PROGRAM EVALUATION

Because research synthesis enables one to determine either the overall effectiveness of different types of treatments, it is becoming increasingly popular as a tool in program evaluation. Numerous methodological problems arise, however, when research synthesis is applied to studies conducted in field settings. The present paper categorlzes and discusses these problems as being threats to either the (1) internal validity (whether one can draw conclusions about cause and effect), (2) statistical conclusion validity (whether one's inferential statistics are capable of detecting cause-and effect relationships, (3) construct validity (whether one's treatments and outcome measures are valid operationalizations of the independent and dependent variables of interest), or (4) external validity (whether one can generalize results to particular populations, settings, or time periods) of research synthesis (see Cook & Campbell, 1979). Specific recommendations are made for minimizing these threats to validity, In order to improve the quality of research synthesis in program evaluation. Finally, the validit framework is applied to an actual synthesis to identify strengths, weaknesses, and potential means of enhancing research quality.     

Ambiguities of xenophobia in a border town: inner city informal traders and Ekasi shopkeepers in the city of East London,South Africa

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the livelihoods, experiences and identities of immigrant informal traders and shopkeepers in the Buffalo City Metropolitan area, which encompasses the centres of East London, Mdantsane and King Williams Town. We primarily use a socio-spatial perspective to analyse informal activity, and offer a particular perspective on how informality has encouraged a type of ‘informal citizenry’ among traders. We argue that informal trading has a very particular history in the region, and that East London’s notoriety as a ‘border city’ and a regional frontier has created a fractured space, which is best expressed through the experiences of migrants and entrepreneurs. We point out that informality is a driver of economic empowerment and equality among traders, but also of xenophobia and difference.