Fertility,development, and family planning, 1970–1980: An analysis of cases weighted by population

A series of related studies (Freedman and Berelson, 1976; Mauldin and Berelson, 1978; and Tsui and Bogue, 1978) have presented empirical findings based on multiple regression analysis which indicated that family planning program effort (FP), as measured by an index developed by Lapham and Mauldin (1972), was the single most important predictor of (or influence on) fertility reduction in less-developed countries (LDCs). The basic results have been confirmed repeatedly. A more extensive data set was used to extend the analysis to a comparison of results of corss-sectional models circa 1970 and 1980. The study builds upon the results of past studies yet differs from them in several ways. All the variables in the present study were measured at 2 points in time: circa 1970 and circa 1980, allowing a comparison between cross-sectional models for 1970 and 1980. Among the cases included in this multivariate analysis was China, a country usually excluded for lack of data. The analysis was extend to 85 countries. Cases were weighted by population, having the effect of increasing the impact of larger countries such as India and China on the outcome of the analysis. Total fertility rate (TFR) was used as an indicator of fertility. For 1970, family planning program effort had the strongest direct influence on fertility (a result consistent with previous studies). Life expectancy at birth was the other direct influence. The direct influence of life expectancy at birth was less than that of family planning, but the total influence was greater. After life expectancy and family planning, school enrollment and relative educational status of women had the strongest indirect and total influences. The other variables all had a positive influence on fertility. When the total variance attributable was considered, directly and indirectly to each of the independent variables, urbanization, carlorie supply, and per capita gross national product all accounted for less than 5% of the variance in fertility, all of it indirect. Life expectancy, family planning, and school enrollment each explained (directly plus indirectly) more than 10% of the variance in fertility. The pattern differed somewhat for 1980. Calorie supply, per capita gross national product, and relative educational status of women had no influence, direct or indirect on fertility. Also for 1980, life expectancy had a stronger direct influence on fertility than family planning. Overall, life expectancy at birth, family planning program effort, and total school enrollment emerged as the principal influences on fertility.     

A contribution to the discussion of probabilities and human hair comparisons

The paper by Gaudette and Keeping on "An Attempt at Determining Probabilities in Human Scalp Hair Comparison" in the Journal of Forensic Sciences (Vol. 19, No. 3, July 1974, pp. 599-606) has provoked considerable controversy. This paper highlights two of the sources of the controversy and shows how the probability, 1/4500, quoted by Gaudette and Keeping should be treated with caution. The necessity of the use of a likelihood ratio statistic is described. It is suggested that the hair examination form resulting from the responses to the questionnaire recently distributed by the authors and also the discussions at Quantico (Proceedings of the International Symposium on Forensic Hair Comparisons, 25-27 June 1985, Quantico VA) should be used to facilitate the collection of the data which will be necessary to enable a likelihood ratio statistic to be estimated effectively.     

The writings of Sir Bernard Spilsbury: Part I

This is a two-part historical feature, highlighting the rare writings of Sir Bernard Spilsbury, the recognized leader of British forensic medicine in the first half of the 20th century. Parts I and II were compiled from the publications of the Medicolegal Society of Great Britain, where Sir Bernard Spilsbury served as President in 1933. Although his profile was presented previously in this Journal (vol. 2, no. 2, 179-182, 1981), it is felt that much of Sir Bernard Spilsbury's personality comes out in his writings and recordings of his speeches in the Medicolegal Society publications. Part I includes his lecture on "The Medico-Legal Significance of Bruises," presented before the Medicolegal Society in 1938; and a short case report read before the Medicolegal Society in 1924. The subject of the case report was sudden death from inhibition. Part II will contain two papers from the Medicolegal Society publications.     

Practitioner fraud and abuse in medical benefit programs: government regulation and professional white-collar crime

Physicians who defraud and abuse medical benefit programs provide a unique group of lawbreakers for scientific study. They could be considered to epitomize white collar criminals given their exceedingly high socioeconomic status and power as a professional group. Using official reports and documents, as well as interviews with enforcement and program personnel at both state and federal levels, this study examines the problem of physician fraud and abuse in Medicare and Medicaid. Major areas relevant to understanding this phenomenon and its control are presented and policy implications of present knowledge in the area are discussed.     

Enforcing ethics in social work

The attention paid by the social work profession to ethical issues has waxed and waned since the formal inauguration of the profession in the late 19th century. For the first half century of the profession's life, relatively little attention was devoted to problems of professional ethics, though social work's literature was filled with discussions of value-laden issues that arise in practice. In recent years, interest in professional ethics has increased substantially. This article discusses the growth of interest in professional ethics, the formulation of the social work code of ethics, the adjudication of grievances in social work, and the strengths and limitations of the profession's code.     

Consumer-sponsored prepaid group practice: restructuring the health care system

The traditional separation of health care delivery and financing systems is breaking down as various new types of health care facilities are established and as payment continues to be a major concern. Group Health Cooperative of Puget Sound (GHC) was organized as a prepaid group practice system responsive to consumers. Costs, methods of payment and delivery of care are interrelated and are all influenced by consumer ownership. GHC has been refining its benefit programs since 1945. Strategies for controlling use and costs focus on improved provider management and on flexibility. This article explains how the structure of GHC benefits the consumer.