Brazil and Turkey Shift Global Politics

The world is rapidly evolving on many fronts. Brazil, Turkey and other emerging powers are taking their own initiatives and building their own global links outside the old frameworks of the G‐8, the United Nations Security Council and NATO. The “third way” politics of Tony Blair that embraced globalization from the left of center in Britain has given way to the Tory party once again. Just as recovery from the financial crash seemed on the horizon, Europe's sovereign debt crisis has erupted. The historically unprecedented pace and scale of urbanization in China is transforming the politics of the Communist Party. President Lula of Brazil, former US treasury secretary Henry Paulson, Singapore's foreign minister George Yeo and others take stock of these manifold developments.     

Now the Elected Islamists Must Deliver

The revolutions of the Arab Spring are twisting and turning on a troubled course. After an uprising overthrew Mubarak last year, elections were held in June in which the Muslim Brotherhood dominated—only to have the military once again assert its authority over any new parliament and constitution. What is at stake is whether Egypt will remain a secular state like Turkey, or take on a moretheocratic bent if ruled by Islamists. In this section, the Arab world's only Nobel laureate in science offers his views about Egypt's future. The Turkish president argues for a secularism that tolerates all religions in Egypt. The CIA's former top analyst on the Muslim world questions whether Islamist parties can deliver once in power instead of opposition.     

The Saudi Counter‐Revolution II

Just as the Arab Spring blossomed, the al‐Qaeda‐led era of terrorism came to an end with the killing of Osama Bin Laden in his Pakistani lair by American special forces. We asked two of the most contentious experts on all things Islamic—Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Tariq Ramadan—to assess the meaning of these historic moments on the future. Amr Moussa, the leading candidate for Egypt's presidency, and Ehud Barak, Israel's defense minister, also offer their views. Two top former intelligence agents from MI6 and the CIA look at the next turn of events—the Saudi counter‐revolution.     

RACIAL–ETHNIC THREAT,OUT‐GROUP INTOLERANCE,AND SUPPORT FOR PUNISHING CRIMINALS: A CROSS‐NATIONAL STUDY*

Scholars often have used the group threat thesis to explain why punitiveness varies across places. This research regularly has found that punitiveness is harsher in places with a larger minority population. Yet researchers only have had a rudimentary grasp of why this is the case. Moreover, most prior research has focused only on the United States, giving us little knowledge of whether the group threat thesis is a viable explanation of cross‐national differences in punitiveness. In the current study, we postulate that the relative size of the out‐group population affects punitiveness indirectly, via its impact on individual intolerance toward ethnic out‐groups. We test this thesis cross‐nationally with data from individuals residing in 27 European countries. Our findings are consistent with the argument that greater racial/ethnic diversity at the country level affects individuals’ attitudes toward minority out‐groups, which in turn increases their support for severely punishing criminal offenders.     

HOMICIDE,STRUCTURAL FACTORS,AND THE RACIAL INVARIANCE ASSUMPTION*

Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the “racial invariance assumption” remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socio-economic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates.