Voter Learning in State Primary Elections

When voters learn about candidates' issue positions during election campaigns, does it affect how they vote? This basic question about voters remains unanswered in part because of a methodological obstacle: learning candidates' issue positions may influence not only voters' vote choice but also their issue positions. To surmount this obstacle, we attempt to answer this question by examining statewide primary elections, which are arguably less vulnerable to this reverse causation problem because they lack partisan cues and are of much lower salience than presidential elections. Using both existing polling data and our own panel Internet surveys, we find that voters learn about the ideologies of candidates during statewide primary campaigns and that this learning affects their voting decisions in senate and gubernatorial primaries. We fail to find similar results for down‐ballot primaries, raising questions about voters' ability to make informed judgments for these types of elections.     

¿Quién le teme a las diásporas y por qué?

Theoretical and analytical systematic and comprehensive consideration of diasporism and diasporas is relatively recent. The first systematic analyses appeared during the 1980s so there are still significant loopholes in their research and examination, as well as in the development of an overall outlook on diasporism and diasporas. As a result, there are also obstacles to a thorough understanding of the phenomenon. After reviewing the existing literature on diasporism and diasporas it is clear that an understanding of diasporas in general and particularly of both their recent involvement in politics, terrorism, and criminal activities in the receiving country, and their cultural, social, and political contributions of the countries of origin and destination is still far from being exhaustive. With the aim of presenting a detailed account of the peculiarities of this phenomenon, this paper describes and analyses the diasporic process in its entirety, going beyond the conventional views that have significantly hindered and limited the scope of the debate on the ethno-national-religious diasporic process in general, and on the contributions or threats generated by diasporas in the receiving countries.     

The G20 after Los Cabos: Illusions of Global Economic Governance

The failure of the Los Cabos summit to satisfactorily address the European sovereign debt crisis and ominous world economic outlook, let alone agree on concrete measures to improve the oversight and functioning of the global economy, appears to confirm the diminishing effectiveness and relevance of the G20 as an organ of international governance since its inception in December 2008. While few accomplishments were achieved in the area of global governance during the Mexican presidency, acute collective action problems, made worse by the present economic crisis, paralysed the G20 in the lead-up to and during the Los Cabos summit. These collective action problems and the ensuing failure of global governance are attributable to the absence of leadership evident at both the global and European levels, which in turn testifies to the excessive dispersion of state economic and political power within the international system.     

The predictability of international terrorism: A time‐series analysis

Abstract

The study examines the predictability of international terrorism in terms of the existence of trends, seasonality, and periodicity of terrorist events. The data base used was the RAND Corporation's Chronology of International Terrorism. It contains the attributes of every case of international terrorism from 1968 to 1986 (n = 5,589). The authors applied Box‐Jenkins models for a time‐series analysis of the occurrence of terrorist events as well as their victimization rates. The analysis revealed that occurrence of terrorist events is far from being random: There is a clear trend and an almost constant periodicity of one month that can be best described by a first‐order moving average model. The fit of this model was tested both by statistical diagnostics and the accuracy of predictions based on this model compared to actual occurrence. However, the series of victimization rates did not reveal any predictability aside from the overall trend of an increasing level of victimization. The findings of the study are discussed by two approaches: the contagiousness of terrorism and the concept of media‐oriented terrorism. These two concepts, separately or combined, may explain some of the patterns revealed in the occurrence of terrorist events. However, they both highlight the part played by the mass media, either as a target for publicity‐seeking terrorists or as an influential factor in the process of contagion.     

E‐Government Technology Transfer: A Case Study of the Implementation of a European Patent Management System in Brazil

In order to bolster the emerging but still underdeveloped conceptualization of e‐government technology transfer, we examine the implementation of a European Patent Management System in Brazil. The case study provided in this article offers opportunities to improve understanding on technical and organizational issues associated with e‐government technology transfer. Our findings provide evidence that the transfer of e‐government technology from a European to a Brazilian context requires multiple adaptations of the original design, intensive learning on the side of the recipient organization, and flexible implementation plans. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.