Lay-Perspectives on Criminal Deviance,Goals of Punishment,and Punitivity

Empirical studies corroborate a relatively close relation between goals of sentencing and punitiveness. However, it is not clear what aspects of sentencing goals motivate harsh punishment. This study analyzes the structure of sentencing goals and scrutinizes in particular whether the idea of retribution is associated with punitiveness, or whether punishment considerations from a societal perspective (macrolevel) are the source of more punitive responses. A questionnaire was mailed to a random sample drawn in Bern, Switzerland. A total of 357 persons responded to items measuring constructs including goals of sentencing, punitiveness, target of justice considerations, and perceived threat to society, after reading one of three short stories about specific crimes (fraud, physical injury, assault). Results of this study reveal a two-dimensional structure of sentencing goals. One dimension represents readiness to punish and exclude the offender socially. The other dimension refers to concerns of the victim versus the needs of the society as a whole. The analysis provides a new interpretation of sentencing goals.     

Cultural histories of kumiss: tuberculosis,heritage and national health in post-Soviet Kazakhstan

In the nineteenth century, European doctors began to credit kumiss (fermented mare’s milk) for the apparent absence of tuberculosis among the nomads of the Eurasian steppe. As European and American medical journals published articles on the ‘kumiss cure’ and Russian doctors opened kumiss sanatoria, praise for the drink’s curative powers was wound together with romanticized images of the nomadic pastoralists whose creation it was. In Soviet and now in post-Soviet Kazakhstan, kumiss came to hold the double status of medicine and of national heritage. Yet if in the nineteenth century, the steppe was notable for the absence of tuberculosis, in the late twentieth century, it is notable for its presence: Kazakhstan, like many post-Soviet countries, is currently the site of an epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Discussions of the epidemic now tangle together concerns over the physical health of the population with concern over the cultural health of the body politic.     

Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.     

Optimizing risk mitigation in management of sexual offenders: a structural model

Sexual violence is an insidious and pervasive problem that insinuates itself into all aspects of contemporary society. It can neither be mitigated nor adequately controlled through current socio-legal practices. A more promising approach must embrace four integrated elements: (1) public policy, (2) primary prevention, (3) statutory management, and (3) secondary intervention. In the present paper we tackle the 3rd and 4th elements by proposing an integrated model for reducing and managing sexual violence among known sex offenders. Relying on the highly effective Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model as the core of our Sex Offender Risk Mitigation and Management Model (SORM³), we draw together evidence based practices from clinical interventions and risk assessment strategies. Developed by Andrews & Bonta (2006), RNR has a strong empirical track record of efficacy when applied to diverse samples of offenders, including sex offenders (Hanson, Bourgon, Helmus, & Hodgson, 2009). We offer a detailed structural model that seeks to provide a more seamless integration of risk assessment with management and discretionary decisions, including a primary focus on RNR-based post-release aftercare. We end with the mantra that sex offender treatment alone will never effectively mitigate sexual violence in society, since the problem is not confined to the handful of offenders who spend time in prison and are offered some limited exposure to treatment. Any truly effective model must go well beyond the management of those known to be violent and embrace a comprehensive and integrated approach that begins by recognizing the seeds of sexual violence sown by society. Such a public health paradigm places victims - not offenders - at the center, forcing society to come to address the full gamut of hazards that fuel sexual violence.     

Deflecting Stereotype Threat Through Downward Comparison: When Comparison with Immigrants Boosts the Performance of Stigmatized Native Students

Two experiments examined the effect of comparison with immigrants on the intellectual performance of stigmatized native students (i.e., women and students from low socioeconomic backgrounds). It was predicted that such a comparison may boost the test performance of both groups of students rather than comparison with their counterparts who are not stigmatized. In line with this hypothesis, we found that female European students (Study 1) performed better on a math test when they were led to compare with a female immigrant rather than with another female European student. Study 2 replicated this finding in regard to the performance of native students with low socioeconomic status on a general intelligence test. Results are discussed in terms of stereotype susceptibility predicaments and their implications for native-immigrant performance gaps.     

Temporal variation of oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) in drinking water: implications for specifying location of origin with human scalp hair

Previous work suggests that δ(18)O values of human hair can be used to constrain the region-of-origin of unknown individuals, but robust assessments of uncertainties in this method are lacking. Here we assess one source of uncertainty - temporal variation in the δ(18)O value of drinking water - using a monthly tap water survey of δ(18)O to develop geospatial models (i.e., maps) of the intra-annual variation (seasonality) in tap water δ(18)O for the contiguous USA. Temporal variation in tap water δ(18)O was correlated with water-supply type, and was related to geographic patterns of precipitation δ(18)O seasonality and water residence time. The maps were applied in a Bayesian framework to identify the geographic origin of an unidentified woman found in Utah, based on measured δ(18)O of scalp hair. The results are robust in specifying parts of the western USA as the most likely region-of-origin. Incorporation of tap water δ(18)O seasonality in the analysis reduces the precision of geographic assignments, but other sources of uncertainty (e.g., spatial interpolation uncertainty) have an equal or larger effect.