Forecasting the 2010 general election using aggregate local election data

The paper presents a revised method for estimating national vote shares using aggregate data from local government by-elections. The model was originally developed to forecast the annual outcome of local elections but was adapted in time to provide an accurate forecast of Labour’s landslide victory at the 1997 general election. However, over the past decade the changing pattern of party competition which has seen parties becoming more selective about which elections to contest has led to more elections being excluded from the modelling because they failed to meet the exacting criteria that all three major parties, Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats, had contested both the by-election and the previous main election, normally held in May. Relaxing these criteria, although increasing the number of available cases would adversely affect the forecast, over- or under-estimating party votes. Instead, the revised method overcomes the problem of differential competition by estimating vote shares for parties that contest one but not both elections. A further innovation is the calculation of a weighted moving quarterly average which takes account of the number of days elapsed between the by-election date and the date of forecast. Using the new method we provide estimates for likely party shares for the 2010 general election.     

Concept of “Semi-Protected Natural Areas” in Environmental Law of Russia and in the Post-Soviet Space: Discussion Questions

The article proves that environmental law of Russia and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) includes a rather wide legal category, which the authors suggest calling “semi-protected natural areas”. It contains land plots, which occupy an intermediate position between common lands and specially protected natural areas (wetlands, water-protective zones, soils included in the Red Data Book of Soils, wilderness areas), as well as between common lands and ecological disaster zones (sanitary protection zones). Further doctrinal research and normative consolidation of this category will allow improving the legal regime of these areas, including existing restrictions and bans in the field of economic and other activity, filling existing legal gaps, forming a more adequate system for counteracting modern environmental threats, including expanding the arsenal of legal means in the field of protection of the environment.     

Human trafficking for labour exploitation: the results of a two-phase systematic review mapping the European evidence base and synthesising key scientific research evidence

Objectives

Our objectives were (1) to systematically map the contours of the European evidence base on labour trafficking, identifying its key characteristics, coverage, gaps, strengths and weaknesses and (2) to synthesise key scientific research.

Methods

We took a two-phase approach: a systematic map followed by a detailed synthesis of key scientific research evidence. Our search strategy included 15 databases, hand searches of additional journals, backwards searches, snowball searches and expert recommendations. We identified and screened 6106 records, mapped 152 and synthesised eight.

Results

Overall, the literature was limited and fragmented. Reports produced by official agencies dominated; academic authorship and peer-reviewed outputs were comparatively rare. Few publications met minimum scientific standards. Qualitative designs outweighed quantitative ones. Publications typically described trafficking’s problem profile and/or discussed interventions; they rarely assessed trafficking’s impacts or evaluated interventions. Even among the key scientific research, the quality of evidence was variable and often low. Particular weaknesses included poor methods reporting, unclear or imprecise results and conclusions not properly grounded in the data. The synthesised studies were all exploratory, also sharing other design features. Common themes identified included: poor treatment of victims; diversity of sectors affected and commonalities among victims; inadequacies of current responses; and barriers to interventions.

Conclusions

There is a lack of high-quality studies into European labour trafficking. Methodological opacity, insufficient rigour and publication in non-indexed locations impede the identification, assessment and synthesis of evidence. Adherence to higher reporting standards would further the field’s development and particular research gaps should be addressed.

     

Principles of the Ukrainian social welfare system in the context of European integration

At the stage of the development of a new social welfare system in Ukraine, it is important to investigate all possible models and develop recommendations for the implementation of the most effective ones. The relevance of this paper lies in the study of the legal framework that operates in Ukraine and the possibilities of its improvement and consolidation into a more specific regulation. The purpose of the research was to study the principles of the social welfare system in Ukraine and to study foreign practices of the social welfare system. Within the framework of this study, the existing systems and models of social welfare systems in different countries were analyzed. The study identifies the most positive examples of social welfare policy for implementation in the current legal framework to improve and enhance the quality of social services in Ukraine. The analyzed foreign practices helped to identify the most effective models of social security. It was concluded that with the successful redistribution of funds, the introduction of a system of audit and control of social assistance financing, as well as being guided by foreign experience, Ukraine will be able to build a social welfare system that would satisfy all of the existing social needs of citizens.