Measuring Long Term Individual Trajectories of Offending Using Multiple Methods

Criminal career researchers and developmental criminologists have identified describing individual trajectories of offending over time as a key research question. In response, recently various statistical methods have been developed and used to describe individual offending patterns over the life-course. Two approaches that are prominent in the current literature are standard growth curve modeling (GCM) and group-based trajectory models (GTM). The goal of this paper is to explore ways in which these different models with different sets of assumptions, do in fact lead to different outcomes on individual trajectories. Using a particularly rich dataset, the criminal career and life-course study, we estimate a unique trajectory for each individual in the sample using the GCM and GTM. We also estimate separate trajectories for each individual directly using the long time series. We then compare these three separate trajectories for each individual. We find that the average trajectories obtained from the different approaches match each other. However, for any given individual, these approaches tell very different stories. For example, each method identifies a rather different set of individuals as desistors. This comparison highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, and more broadly, it reveals the uncertainty involved with measuring long term patterns of change in latent propensity to commit crimes.

Integrity,culture, and scale: an empirical test of the big bad police agency

Building on Klockars et. al. (2000) analysis of survey data on police agency integrity, this analysis develops an economic model of police corruption within police agencies. Empirical estimates of the economic model are consistent with Klockars et. al. (2000) in that there is no evidence to support the traditional theory that police agency corruption is attributable to the “individual bad-apple.” Independent of other factors, the present analysis shows that police culture fosters corruption. Furthermore, the present analysis shows that incentive structures within police agencies increase the problem of corruption as the scale of police agency operation increases. Policies that would promote higher levels of integrity are considered.     

A public choice theory of the Great Contraction: Further evidence

We benefitted from comments by John Johnson and Lloyd Blenman. M. Bala Subrahmanyam, Steven Moore, and Thomas Lewis provided valuable research assistance. Any remaining errors are our own.     

The right to refuse treatment: An application of the economic principles of decision-making under uncertainty

When courts do not defer to professional judgment, alternative ways must be used to make treatment decisions for persons who are deemed incompetent. Rather than impose the preferences of society on the mentally ill individual, courts have favored alternative procedures. The two most common approaches are substituted judgment and best interests. In using both the substituted judgment standard and the best interest standard the guardian of a patient who is judged incompetent to make a treatment decision tries to make the decision the patient would have made, had he been competent. The guardian must consider the individual's attitude toward risk in making this assessment. Substituted judgment can be used when clear and convincing evidence of the patient's preferences exists. The evidence would come from a study of the patient's expressed attitudes towards medical treatment and behavior before he or she became incompetent. This approach is effective only if the patient has revealed his or her preferences toward relevant medical treatment in the past. The best interest standard is used when no clear and convincing evidence of the patient's treatment preferences exists. The treatment decisions of competent patients whose characteristics are similar to the incompetent patient's, and who have faced a similar situation, can be used as a proxy for the decision the incompetent patient would have made. Using the choice function of similar people may make it possible to develop a reasonably objective basis for determining what course of action is in the patient's best interest.     

Virtual Government: What Will Remain Inside the Public Sector?

Around the world, the public sector is changing in ways which challenge the Weberian or bureaucratic paradigm. If we are to comprehend these changes, we must abandon the binary model of public and private sectors and better understand the non-state public sector. Looking to historical and international examples, this article asks what has to remain inside the state. While acknowledging that there are significant drivers for reform, it argues that the size of government — large or small — should not be a matter of ideology.