A Fast, Easy, and Efficient Estimator for Multiparty Electoral Data

Katz and King have previously developed a model for predictingor explaining aggregate electoral results in multiparty democracies.Their model is, in principle, analogous to what least-squaresregression provides American political researchers in that two-partysystem. Katz and King applied their model to three-party electionsin England and revealed a variety of new features of incumbencyadvantage and sources of party support. Although the mathematicsof their statistical model covers any number of political parties,it is computationally demanding, and hence slow and numericallyimprecise, with more than three parties. In this paper we producean approximate method that works in practice with many partieswithout making too many theoretical compromises. Our approachis to treat the problem as one of missing data. This allowsus to use a modification of the fast EMis algorithm of King,Honaker, Joseph, and Scheve and to provide easy-to-use software,while retaining the attractive features of the Katz and Kingmodel, such as the t distribution and explicit models for uncontestedseats.     

Development and validation of the AmpFlSTR MiniFiler PCR Amplification Kit: a MiniSTR multiplex for the analysis of degraded and/or PCR inhibited DNA

DNA typing of degraded DNA samples can be a challenging task when using the current commercially available multiplex short tandem repeat (STR) analysis kits. However, the ability to type degraded DNA specimens improves by redesigning current STR marker amplicons such that smaller sized polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products are generated. In an effort to increase the amount of information derived from these types of DNA samples, the AmpFlSTR MiniFiler PCR Amplification Kit has been developed. The kit contains reagents for the amplification of eight miniSTRs which are the largest sized loci in the AmpFlSTR Identifiler PCR Amplification Kit (D7S820, D13S317, D16S539, D21S11, D2S1338, D18S51, CSF1PO, and FGA). Five of these STR loci (D16S539, D21S11, D2S1338, D18S51, and FGA) also are some of the largest loci in the AmpFlSTR SGM Plus kit. This informative nine-locus multiplex, which includes the gender-identification locus Amelogenin, has been validated according to the FBI/National Standards and SWGDAM guidelines. Our results demonstrate significant performance improvements in models of DNA degradation, PCR inhibition, and nonprobative samples when compared to the AmpFlSTR Identifiler and SGM Plus kits. These data support that the MiniFiler kit will increase the likelihood of obtaining additional STR information from forensic samples in situations in which standard STR chemistries fail to produce complete profiles.     

Deception Detection Expertise

A lively debate between Bond and Uysal (2007, Law and Human Behavior, 31, 109-115) and O'Sullivan (2007, Law and Human Behavior, 31, 117-123) concerns whether there are experts in deception detection. Two experiments sought to (a) identify expert(s) in detection and assess them twice with four tests, and (b) study their detection behavior using eye tracking. Paroled felons produced videotaped statements that were presented to students and law enforcement personnel. Two experts were identified, both female Native American BIA correctional officers. Experts were over 80% accurate in the first assessment, and scored at 90% accuracy in the second assessment. In Signal Detection analyses, experts showed high discrimination, and did not evidence biased responding. They exploited nonverbal cues to make fast, accurate decisions. These highly-accurate individuals can be characterized as experts in deception detection.     

Does Country-Level Social Disorganization Increase Terrorist Attacks?

This study examines the effects of a measure of country-level social disorganization on levels of terrorist attacks and fatalities in 101 countries from 1981 to 2010. We measure social disorganization as the presence of state instability: revolutionary and ethnic war, adverse regime change, and genocide. The classic social disorganization perspective posits that individuals experiencing these types of rapid social change will be freed from the institutional and informal restraints that bind them to society, and keep them conforming to social norms and laws. We examine the extent to which this reasoning applies to the number of terrorist attacks and fatalities from terrorist attacks occurring in countries. To control for the possibility that better functioning states are better able to prevent terrorist attacks, we include two measures of state capacity. We find that controlling for state capacity and a wide variety of other variables, social disorganization is consistently associated with increases in terrorist attacks and fatalities. We consider implications of the results for future research and policy.