Public intelligence: Leaks as policy instruments–the case of the Iraq war

The study of intelligence has focused almost exclusively on ‘secret’ intelligence in its analysis of intelligence failures and the relationship of policy and intelligence. This is not surprising since intelligence analysis takes place in secret. Yet sometimes intelligence becomes public. It does so in ways that hold implications for the quality of the overall intelligence product. In order to develop a complete understanding of the relationship between intelligence and policy we need to more systematically examine the nature of public intelligence. This article provides a framework for doing so, presents historical examples from the American experience and applies the framework to the intelligence used in justifying the Iraq War.     

Beyond market failure and government failure

Public Choice - Criticisms of market outcomes often rest upon a notion of ‘market failure,’ meaning that the market has failed to align incentives and knowledge to produce an optimal...     

Predicting Recidivism with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version

Recidivism was evaluated in 178 male inmates administered the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and scored on the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) 1–55 months before their release from prison. Age, prior charges, the LSI-R:SV total score, and the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT), Proactive Criminal Thinking (P), and Reactive Criminal Thinking (R) scores served as predictors of recidivism in follow-ups spanning 1–53 months. Age, prior charges, and the PICTS GCT and R scales consistently and incrementally predicted general recidivism (all charges), whereas prior charges and the PICTS R scale consistently and incrementally predicted serious recidivism (more serious charges). Although these results support the predictive efficacy and incremental validity of content-relevant self-report measures of criminality like the PICTS, they also indicate that the effect is modest and in need of further clarification. One area requiring further investigation is the potential role of the PICTS, particularly the R scale, as a dynamic risk factor.     

Operational benefits and challenges of the use of fingerprint statistical models: a field study

Research projects aimed at proposing fingerprint statistical models based on the likelihood ratio framework have shown that low quality finger impressions left on crime scenes may have significant evidential value. These impressions are currently either not recovered, considered to be of no value when first analyzed by fingerprint examiners, or lead to inconclusive results when compared to control prints. There are growing concerns within the fingerprint community that recovering and examining these low quality impressions will result in a significant increase of the workload of fingerprint units and ultimately of the number of backlogged cases. This study was designed to measure the number of impressions currently not recovered or not considered for examination, and to assess the usefulness of these impressions in terms of the number of additional detections that would result from their examination.     

Detection of latent bloodstains beneath painted surfaces using reflected infrared photography

Bloodstain evidence is a highly valued form of physical evidence commonly found at scenes involving violent crimes. However, painting over bloodstains will often conceal this type of evidence. There is limited research in the scientific literature that describes methods of detecting painted-over bloodstains. This project employed a modified digital single-lens reflex camera to investigate the effectiveness of infrared (IR) photography in detecting latent bloodstain evidence beneath a layer or multiple layers of paint. A qualitative evaluation was completed by comparing images taken of a series of samples using both IR and standard (visible light) photography. Further quantitative image analysis was used to verify the findings. Results from this project indicate that bloodstain evidence can be detected beneath up to six layers of paint using reflected IR; however, the results vary depending on the characteristics of the paint. This technique provides crime scene specialists with a new field method to assist in locating, visualizing, and documenting painted-over bloodstain evidence.