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Peter J. Gordon 《East Asia》1989,8(1):39-55
China’s nuclear weapons strategy has evolved under a consensus of the Chinese leadership that it must develop nuclear weapons of its own. However, on three occasions, in 1955, 1959, and 1965 the leadership’s decisions to pursue long-term economic, technological, and weapons development in lieu of short-term acquisition of nuclear weapons resulted in leadership purges. In each case external developments sparked the debate about China’s nuclear strategy, while internal economic and political considerations were the significant factors in resolving the disputes. 相似文献
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POLICY MODELING TO SUPPORT ADMINISTRATIVE DECISIONMAKING ON THE NEW YORK STATE HIV TESTING LAW 下载免费PDF全文
Erika G. Martin Roderick H. MacDonald Lou C. Smith Daniel E. Gordon James M. Tesoriero Franklin N. Laufer Shu‐Yin J. Leung Daniel A. O'Connell 《Journal of policy analysis and management》2015,34(2):403-423
A recent New York law requires medical providers to offer HIV tests as part of routine care. We developed a system dynamics simulation model of the HIV testing and care system to help administrators understand the law's potential epidemic impact, resource needs, strategies to improve implementation, and appropriate outcome indicators for future policy evaluations once postlaw data become available. Policy modeling allowed us to synthesize information from numerous sources including quantitative administrative data sets and practitioners’ content expertise, structure the information to be viewed both numerically and visually, and organize consensus for decisionmaking purposes. This case illustrates how policy modeling can provide an integrated framework for administrators to examine policy problems in complex systems, particularly when data time lags limit pre–post comparisons and key outcomes cannot be measured directly. 相似文献
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Parenting plan evaluators are expert witnesses who offer their opinion. Courts in common law jurisdictions generally do not accept evidence of an opinion as it is not considered to be reliable evidence from which to establish a fact. An exception to that general principle is expert opinion evidence. In short, an opinion from a person with specialized knowledge or expertise about the area in which they are an expert may be sufficiently reliable to form an evidentiary basis from which to make a finding of fact, provided the opinion meets certain criteria. These criteria will be discussed in this article, as well as what is relevant, reliable and persuasive evidence. The relevant legal principles will be examined in an historical and contemporary, theoretical and practical context. The authors reflect on their considerable experience as consumers of expert evidence and apply this to parenting plan evaluations, as well as considering future challenges in the field. 相似文献