Miracle to meltdown: A pathology of the East Asian financial crisis

The financial crisis in East Asia was made more dramatic by the fact that the region's performance in terms of economic growth over the preceding decade had been widely perceived as a 'miracle'. What was it that transformed the region's fortunes, and what are the chances for a speedy economic recovery? Systematic analysis reveals that, while there is no unicausal explanation, and while few if any commentators anticipated the crisis before the event, the fundamental difference from previous international financial crises is the extreme indebtedness of the corporate sector of the crisis countries. Private sector repayment difficulties and the associated banking crises triggered the sudden withdrawal of capital and the collapse of exchange rates. Failure to address the underlying private sector debt overhang, and reliance instead on conventional macroeconomic policy solutions, have led to a decline in output and a depreciation in exchange rates which have been far greater than need have been the case.     

Applying Functional Analysis to the Case of a Malfunctioning Education System: Addressing System Complexity and Tangled Causes

A 4-year decline culminating in a collapse of school leaver exam results sent shockwaves through the Tanzanian state education system. Students and citizens attribute the collapse to visible deficiencies in classroom teaching, which is the product of a complex, government-administered system of teacher training colleges, schools, schools inspectorate, an examinations council, and a curriculum development institution. A model of the system is constructed and ‘interrogated’ to establish a research framework of key questions and propositions for functional analysis and evaluation of the system.     

Analysing the economic justification for the reforms to social welfare and family law legal aid

The Ministry of Justice plans on saving £450 million per annum from the legal aid budget through reforms contained in the Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act 2012.Over 60% of these savings will be found by removing whole areas of law and types of problem from the scope of legal aid support. One of the principal justifications for these reforms is the economic imperative; reducing legal aid expenditure is necessary to meet the Government's fiscal targets. This article examined whether these reforms will generate the substantial savings identified in the Government's impact assessment, or whether these costs will be passed on to other areas of government. Data from the Civil and Social Justice Survey were used to model the behavioural responses of people no longer eligible for legal aid under the scope changes. Economic costs were estimated for these responses where they will be incurred by the state, although many of these costs are likely to be underestimates. Many costs could not be estimated including, inter alia, the cost of increased criminality where people seek redress outside of the justice system. The analysis focused on family and social welfare law, which together represent 82% of the proposed savings from the scope reforms. Based upon this analysis, the Government is unlikely to save more than 40% of its prediction. At the same time, these minimal savings could generate inequality of access to justice and overburden an already struggling alternative advice sector. A significant uptake in funded mediation within family law is predicted.     

The cognitive interview: A survey of its forensic effectiveness

Abstract

The cognitive interview has been shown to have the potential to enhance witness recall. Consequently, it has been adopted by all police forces in England and Wales. The present paper surveyed 96 police officers trained in the cognitive interview and 65 untrained police officers, using a questionnaire. Officers rated how frequently they used and how useful they found components of the cognitive interview. Trained officers were significantly more likely to use instructions to mentally reinstate context, use different orders, change perspectives and imagery. Amongst trained officers there was a consensus that some components of the cognitive interview were used more frequently and were believed to be more useful than others. Rated as most useful and most frequently used were establish rapport, report everything, encourage concentration, witness compatible questioning, and mental reinstatement of context. Rated as less useful and less frequently used were recall in different orders, imagery, change perspectives and transfer control. Further responses indicated that the cognitive interview was generally perceived to be a useful procedure that increases correct recall, although officers were still aware that incorrect information can also be generated. However, a major problem for many officers was that they do not have the time to conduct a full cognitive interview.     

Children's testimony: Research findings and policy implications

Abstract

Traditionally the British legal system has taken a sceptical attitude toward the testimony of children, reflected in the competency requirement, the corroboration rule and the judicial caution. However, recent psychological research has suggested that children, properly interviewed, can provide invaluable testimony in securing convictions in cases of sexual or physical abuse. Research suggests that children's spontaneous accounts of events are generally accurate, and that suggestibility can be greatly reduced by appropriate questioning techniques. Partly as a result of such research, the legal hurdles surrounding children's evidence have been dismantled and procedural innovations, such as the use of the Videolink and videotaped interviews introduced. Empirical research demonstrates the success of the Videolink and a similar evaluation is planned for videotaped interviews. The latter has highlighted the need for a new research agenda which would include the impact of biased or repeated questioning, and requests to children from abusers to lie or keep secrets.     

Is overpunishment fairer than underpunishment? Perceptions of deviations from equity

Abstract

Three studies are presented which test hypotheses derived from Equity Theory, Prospect Theory and the principle of Diminishing Marginal Value with regard to preferences for overpunishment and underpunishment in the assignment of penalties to offences of varying severity. The first two studies showed that, with different subject samples, offences, and kinds of punishments, subjects indicated a marked preference for over-punishment rather than underpunishment, when both over punishment and under-punishment deviated from ideal, or equitable, punishment to the same degree. However, the effect was only apparent for serious offences. A third study showed that the overpunishment preference for a serious offence existed even when the overpunishment deviated 30% more from ideal punishment than underpunishment, but again no preference was shown' for the less serious offence. As the results cannot be readily explained in terms of any of the three explanatory principles, a possible explanation in terms of concept of negative reciprocity is advanced.     

A review of the role of radical feminist theories in the understanding of rape myth acceptance

Abstract

Research into rape myth acceptance (RMA) first emerged in the 1970s, when authors such as Brownmiller (1975) and Burt (1980) proposed that rape was a mechanism that allowed men to exert power over women and that the endorsement of rape myths justified this sexual dominance. These influential theories have meant that subsequent definitions of rape myths have failed to acknowledge male victims of serious sexual assault, despite an increase in prevalence rates. More recent research has attempted to explore RMA in relation to male victims, with results suggesting that men are more likely than women to endorse rape myths regarding male victims when the victim is assumed to be homosexual, or when the victim is heterosexual and the perpetrator is female. Brownmiller's theory is challenged and a more holistic view of the importance of sex-role traditionality is explored, while acknowledging the contribution of individual factors relating to the development of RMA.     

Replicating Sachs and Warner’s Working Papers on the Resource Curse

This article reports on my attempt to replicate Sachs and Warner’s 1995 and 1997 resource curse working papers. The 1995 paper is not replicable for lack of a data archive. Pure replication of the 1997 paper is achieved. Statistical replication determines that the proposed institutional causes of the resource curse are not robust to country sample. Scientific replication shows that findings of a resource curse are not sensitive to different measures of resource intensiveness, though they are sensitive to estimation technique. Typographical errors in the published paper reveal the value of researchers making both their data and code available.     

The Spatial Distribution of Postblast RDX Residue: Forensic Implications

Locating exactly where trace explosive residue samples should be sought during sample collection at bomb scenes is not specified in the published literature or guidelines; in this area, it is generally acknowledged that forensic practices are based on tradition rather than evidence. This study investigated patterns in the spatial distribution of postblast 1,3,5‐trinitro‐1,3,5‐triazocyclohexane residue from a series of unconfined detonations, over a range of sampling sites, and at two different detonation heights. The amount of residue recovered from the sites decreased as a function of distance from the center of the explosion. [Correction added after online publication 27 December 2012: In the preceding sentence, “increased” was corrected to “decreased” to agree with the conclusion of the article.] As the height of the detonations increased, more residues were found from all sampling sites. The findings of this empirical study have a number of important practical implications including determining where residue samples are best sought at crime scenes.