A Perspective on Errors,Bias, and Interpretation in the Forensic Sciences and Direction for Continuing Advancement*

Abstract: The forensic sciences are under review more so than ever before. Such review is necessary and healthy and should be a continuous process. It identifies areas for improvement in quality practices and services. The issues surrounding error, i.e., measurement error, human error, contextual bias, and confirmatory bias, and interpretation are discussed. Infrastructure is already in place to support reliability. However, more definition and clarity of terms and interpretation would facilitate communication and understanding. Material improvement across the disciplines should be sought through national programs in education and training, focused on science, the scientific method, statistics, and ethics. To provide direction for advancing the forensic sciences a list of recommendations ranging from further documentation to new research and validation to education and to accreditation is provided for consideration. The list is a starting point for discussion that could foster further thought and input in developing an overarching strategic plan for enhancing the forensic sciences.     

The Sanctions-Perceptions Link in a Model of School-based Deterrence

This paper reports a study examining associations between objective indicators of the level of discipline within schools and students’ perceptions of the strictness of discipline. Data were analyzed from the National Education Longitudinal Survey (NELS), a nationally representative panel study of eighth grade students attending public and private schools in 1988. We find evidence for an association between objective and perceived risk of discipline in models that examine the covariation of these two constructs at several cross sections, and in models of change in perceptions as a function of change in school sanctioning climate. Moreover, these associations were strongest in small and less disordered schools.

Book reviews

B.J.C. McKercher, Transition of Power: Britain's Loss of Global Pre-eminence to the United States, 1930-45, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999, xii + 403, £40, ISBN 0521 440 904

Joseph A. Maiolo, The Royal Navy and Nazi Germany, 1933-39: A Study in Appeasement and the Origins of the Second World War (London, MacMillan Press Ltd., 1998), xii + 259 pp. £?? ISBN 0-333-72007-5.

William I. Hitchcock, France Restored: Cold War Diplomacy and the Quest for Leadership in Europe, 1944-54, University of North Carolina Press, Chapel Hill, 1998, pp.291. £37.50 hardback, £14.50 paperback.

R. Holland, Britain and the Revolt in Cyprus 1954-1959 (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1998). 347 pp. £48 hb. ISBN 0-19-820538-4.

Michael L. Krenn, Black Diplomacy: African Americans and the State Department 1945-1969 (London: M.E. Sharpe, 1999). Viii + 223pp. £15.95 pb. ISBN 0-7656-0381-0

Jerrold L. Schecter, Russian Negotiating Behavior (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1998). 225 pp. ISBN: 1-878379-78-X.     

One-Stop Shopping for Government Services: Strengths and Weaknesses of the Service Tasmania Experience

Government service delivery in Tasmania has undergone a customer-orientated shift, changing the nature of the relationship between the Government and the community. A Tasmanian State Government initiative named Service Tasmania utilizing information technologies and private sector style business administration values offers new possibilities in service delivery through its integrated whole-of-government approach. This initiative facilitates cross-agency customer-centered service delivery within the overall government framework. This article introduces an empirically based qualitative investigation into the implementation of Service Tasmania’s One-Stop-Shops. Particular interest is placed on identifying the strengths and weaknesses of implementing the Service Tasmania service delivery model. Data were analyzed by using a grounded theory approach comprising open, axial, and selective coding. Findings indicate that whilst some weaknesses in the approach have been uncovered the numerous strengths outweigh them. Some practical implications are identified for policy-makers and practitioners engaged in service delivery reform projects.     

Does Compliance Pay? Social Standards and Firm‐Level Trade

What is the relationship between trade and social institutions in the developing world? The research literature is conflicted: Importing firms may demand that trading partners observe higher labor and environmental standards, or they may penalize higher standards that raise costs. This study uses new data on retailers and manufacturers to analyze how firm‐level trade responds to information about social standards. Contrary to the “race to the bottom” hypothesis, it finds that retail importers reward exporters for complying with social standards. In difference‐in‐differences estimates from over 2,000 manufacturing establishments in 36 countries, achieving compliance is associated with a 4% [1%, 7%] average increase in annual purchasing. The effect is driven largely by the apparel industry—a long‐term target of anti‐sweatshop social movements—suggesting that activist campaigns can shape patterns of global trade.     

A preferential attachment model of campaign contributions in state legislative elections

In state legislative elections some candidates attract contributions from many donors whereas other candidates have much smaller donor pools. Why? What are the origins of these disparities? This paper conceptualizes contributions as a type of attachment between the donor and the state legislative candidate. To model the formation of these attachments, this paper proposes a variant of the Barabasi-Albert preferential attachment model. The theoretical model is tested with data on over one million contributions to state legislative candidates in 2008. The paper also derives implications for macro-level inequities across candidates which are tested by comparing the observed inequities to simulations of the preferential attachment model. The results provide strong support for the hypotheses and show that the preferential attachment model provides a parsimonious representation of contributions to state legislative candidates.