Facial Tissue Depths in Children with Cleft Lip and Palate

Cleft lip and palate (CLP) is a craniofacial malformation affecting more than seven million people worldwide that results in defects of the hard palate, teeth, maxilla, nasal spine and floor, and maxillodental asymmetry. CLP facial soft‐tissue depth (FSTD) values have never been published. The purpose of this research is to report CLP FSTD values and compare them to previously published FSTD values for normal children. Thirty‐eight FSTDs were measured on cone beam computed tomography images of CLP children (n = 86; 7–17 years). MANOVA and ANOVA tests determined whether cleft type, age, sex, and bone graft surgical status affect tissue depths. Both cleft type (unilateral/bilateral) and age influence FSTDs. CLP FSTDs exhibit patterns of variation that differ from normal children, particularly around the oronasal regions of the face. These differences should be taken into account when facial reconstructions of children with CLP are created.     

A two-level model for evidence evaluation

A random effects model using two levels of hierarchical nesting has been applied to the calculation of a likelihood ratio as a solution to the problem of comparison between two sets of replicated multivariate continuous observations where it is unknown whether the sets of measurements shared a common origin. Replicate measurements from a population of such measurements allow the calculation of both within-group and between-group variances/covariances. The within-group distribution has been modelled assuming a Normal distribution, and the between-group distribution has been modelled using a kernel density estimation procedure. A graphical method of estimating the dependency structure among the variables has been used to reduce this highly multivariate problem to several problems of lower dimension. The approach was tested using a database comprising measurements of eight major elements from each of four fragments from each of 200 glass objects and found to perform well compared with previous approaches, achieving a 15.2% false-positive rate, and a 5.5% false-negative rate. The modelling was then applied to two examples of casework in which glass found at the scene of the criminal activity has been compared with that found in association with a suspect.     

Classification of Glass Fragments Based on Elemental Composition and Refractive Index*

Abstract: The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of likelihood ratio (LR)‐based measures when they are applied to solving various classification problems for glass objects which are described by elemental composition, and refractive index (RI) values, and compare LR‐based methods to other classification methods such as support vector machines (SVM) and naïve Bayes classifiers (NBC). One hundred and fifty‐three glass objects (23 building windows, 25 bulbs, 32 car windows, 57 containers, and 16 headlamps) were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy coupled with an energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer. Refractive indices for building and car windows were measured before (RI_b), and after (RI_a) an annealing process. The proposed scheme for glass fragment(s) classification demonstrates some efficiency, although the classification of car windows (c) and building windows (w) must be treated carefully. This is because of their very similar elemental content. However, a combination of elemental content and information on the change in RI during annealing (ΔRI = RI_a?RI_b) gave very promising results. A LR model for the classification of glass fragments into use‐type categories for forensic purposes gives slightly higher misclassification rates than SVM and NBC. However, the observed differences between results obtained by all three approaches were very similar, especially when applied to the car window and building window classification problem. Therefore, the LR model can be recommended because of the ease of interpretation of LR‐based measures of certainty.     

The “revival of communism” or the effect of institutions?: The 1993 Polish parliamentary elections

In several Eastern European countries the breakdown of communism in 1989 was followed by a surprising return to power of post-communist parties. Yet, some electoral victories of post-communists look puzzling when contrasted with a small size of a shift in voters' preferences that has led to them. Such is the case of the 1993 Polish parliamentary elections. Using partition-function form games and results of simulated elections, we estimate the impact of three factors that were blamed, in addition to the shift to the left in voters' preferences, for the 1993 victory of the post-communists in Poland. We show that the shift to the left was insufficient to assure post-communists an electoral victory, and that this victory would not have happened under the old electoral law or under a unified coalition of the Right. Our results show the high sensitivity of emerging democracies to the details of their institutional backbones.     

Mixed effects modelling for glass category estimation from glass refractive indices

520 Glass fragments were taken from 105 glass items. Each item was either a container, a window, or glass from an automobile. Each of these three classes of use are defined as glass categories. Refractive indexes were measured both before, and after a programme of re-annealing. Because the refractive index of each fragment could not in itself be observed before and after re-annealing, a model based approach was used to estimate the change in refractive index for each glass category. It was found that less complex estimation methods would be equivalent to the full model, and were subsequently used. The change in refractive index was then used to calculate a measure of the evidential value for each item belonging to each glass category. The distributions of refractive index change were considered for each glass category, and it was found that, possibly due to small samples, members of the normal family would not adequately model the refractive index changes within two of the use types considered here. Two alternative approaches to modelling the change in refractive index were used, one employed more established kernel density estimates, the other a newer approach called log-concave estimation. Either method when applied to the change in refractive index was found to give good estimates of glass category, however, on all performance metrics kernel density estimates were found to be slightly better than log-concave estimates, although the estimates from log-concave estimation prossessed properties which had some qualitative appeal not encapsulated in the selected measures of performance. These results and implications of these two methods of estimating probability densities for glass refractive indexes are discussed.     

Organizational Social Capital and Performance of Drug Law Enforcement Departments

Supply reduction efforts by drug law enforcement departments are a significant factor in improving the effectiveness of drug control policies. The performance of drug law enforcement departments is one of the most important concerns for policy makers. Therefore, improving the performance of these departments is crucial in order for governments to constrict illegal drug markets and prevent illegal drug distribution. The literature suggests that social capital may have significant impacts on organizational performance. Using survey data from 12 city law enforcement departments in Turkey, this study examines the effects of three social capital dimensions (structural, relational, and cognitive dimensions) on the perceived performance of drug law enforcement departments by using structural equation modeling. The results of this conceptually grounded and empirical study suggest that drug law enforcement departments should pay close attention to promoting social capital among officers in order to fight effectively against drug trafficking.     

新自由主义与世界经济危机

2008-2010年世界经济金融危机,并不单纯是由美国次贷市场的崩溃所引发的,其根源深植于新自由主义的资本主义。目前现存的国际制度体系与其说有助于全球秩序,不如说催生了全球混乱。应该从根本上重建日益相互依存的世界经济所赖以运行的制度架构。未来世界的经济,即相互关联的全球经济,需要的是能够进行包括政治在内的全球协调的制度。     

The analysis of social interest rate in Trinidad and Tobago

In this article a Social Interest Rate (SIR) is derived for Trinidad and Tobago on the basis of an individualistic, independent and multi‐period consumption utility function. The component parameters of this rate are: a mortality‐based pure time discount rate, the growth rate of per capita real consumption and the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption. The final result is 6.2 per cent which is plausible and thus can be readily used by economic planners in various resource allocation policies in that country.     

Socialism,capitalism, or Chinism?

Is China still building socialism or has it already built capitalism? Or maybe both? Or maybe none of those two systems? Or maybe with the market reforms that deviate from the traditional socialism, it has created something different from the classical types of political and socio-economic regimes known from the 20th century? Some authors have proclaimed that there has been capitalism in China for some time; others claim that socialism has developed there, of course one with Chinese characteristics. Shortages have been successfully eliminated, but the economic system is unbalanced, showing surpluses this time. So, is it socialism, as the official Chinese authorities claim, or capitalism, as asserted by numerous economists? Tertium non datur? By no means, as there are yet other possibilities of system interpretations and the most fascinating of them is being offered by the present-day China, where a unique internal convergence is taking place. Features of socialism intermingle with essentials of capitalism and vice versa, creating a new, different quality. Tertium datur.