Rethinking the partisan effects of higher turnout: So what's the question?

Controversy persists over the link between turnout and the likelihood of success of Democratic candidates (e.g., DeNardo, 1980, 1986; Zimmer, 1985; Tucker and Vedlitz, 1986; Piven and Cloward, 1988; Texeira, 1992; Radcliff, 1994, 1995; Erikson, 1995a, b). We argue that the authors in this debate have largely been talking past one another because of a failure to distinguish three quite different questions. The first question is: “Are low turnout voters more likely to vote Democratic than high turnout voters?” The second question is: “Should we expect that elections in which turnout is higher are ones in which we can expect Democrats to have done better?” The third question is the counterfactual: “If turnout were to have increased in some given election, would Democrats have done better?” We show the logical independence of the first two questions from one another and from the third, and argue that previous researchers have failed to recognize this logical independence – sometimes thinking they were answering question three when in fact they were answering either question one or question two. Reviewing previous research, we find that the answer to the first question once was YES but, for more recent elections at the presidential level, now appears to be NO, while, for congressional and legislative elections, the answer to the second question appears generally to be NO. However, the third question is essentially unanswerable absent an explicit model of why and how turnout can be expected to increase, and/or analyses of individual level panel data. Thus, the cross-sectional and pooled data analyses of previous research are of almost no value in addressing this third question.

     

Genetic admixture and diversity estimations in the Mexican Mestizo population from Mexico City using 15 STR polymorphic markers

The 15 AmpFlSTR Identifiler loci D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, TH01, D13S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, vWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818 and FGA were analyzed in a sample of 378 unrelated individuals from Mexico City, Mexico. Significant deviations from HW equilibrium in 14/15 STR loci alleles were not detected. The D18S51 locus had the highest power of discrimination (0.970). Genetic admixture estimations revealed a 69% of Amerindian, 26% of European and 5% of African contribution. Comparative analyses between Mexicans and other neighboring populations reveal significant differences in genetic diversity. Our results are important for future comparative genetic studies in different Latin American ethnic groups, particularly Mexican Mestizos and Amerindians. They should also be helpful in genetics, population evolution, forensic and paternity testing.     

Perceptions of Economic Inequality and Support for Redistribution: The role of Existential and Utopian Standards

Perceived greater economic inequality is supposedly associated with higher demand for redistribution. However, the findings in the literature are mixed in this regard, with some researchers providing evidence in favour of this association and some findings evidence against it. Given that perceived economic inequality and endorsement of system-justifying beliefs are related to increased inequality acceptance, we explore the interplay between them in relation to support for redistribution. This study is intended to shed light on the role of utopian standards (ideal estimates about what ought to be) as one mechanism that affects the relationship between perceived greater economic inequality and support for redistribution. Based on correlational data (N?=?794), we conducted a conditional process analysis and found that perceived greater inequality displayed a negative indirect effect on support for redistribution, through acceptance of ideal level of economic inequality: Perception of higher inequality was related to increased ideal levels of inequality and thus with lower support for redistribution. In addition, we found that economic system-justifying beliefs conditioned the effect of perceived economic inequality in two ways: First, perceived economic inequality was positively associated with higher acceptance of inequality, and this association was stronger for those that justified the economic system more, and perceived greater inequality was associated with higher support for redistribution—but only for those who endorsed lower levels of economic system justification beliefs. These findings provide evidence that perceived greater economic inequality does not in itself lead to a push for more redistribution; rather, utopian standards such as ideal estimates of economic inequality, which are conditioned by system-justifying ideologies.     

Substitution of human for horse urine disproves an accusation of doping*

In order to detect switching and/or manipulation of samples, the owner of a stallion asked our lab to perform a DNA test on a positive doping urine sample. The objective was to compare the urine DNA profile versus blood and hair DNA profiles from the same stallion. At first, 10 microsatellite markers were investigated to determine the horse identity. No results were obtained when horse specific markers were typed in the urine sample. In order to confirm the species origin of this sample we analyzed the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. This analysis from blood and hair samples produced reproducible and clear PCR-RFLP patterns and DNA sequence match with those expected for horse, while the urine sample results were coincident with human. These results allowed us to exclude the urine sample from the questioned stallion and determine its human species origin, confirming the manipulation of urine sample.     

Assignment of paternity in a judicial dispute between two neighbor Holstein dairy farmers

DNA profiling was used as evidence to assign paternity in a dispute between two neighbors in a judicial case of undue appropriation of cattle offspring from five alleged Holstein sires. Five offspring were genotyped using ten genetic markers (nine microsatellites and the BOLA-DRB3 locus). The computer program CERVUS was used to estimate the LOD score values and the confidence of paternity assignments. The results presented here show that three out of five paternity cases were assigned at 95% of confidence to a single sire with a LOD score ranging from 2.53 to 3.55. A fourth male was assigned using its delta value. Finally, all alleged sires were excluded from the paternity of the fifth offspring, probably due to the existence of an non-sampled male in the studied population. We concluded that the likelihood-based approach, included into CERVUS program, was a powerful tool in cattle kinship analysis when dealing with judicial dispute particularly when the dam's genotype was absent, allowing the assignments of paternity at 95% level of confidence in situations usually used by dairy and beef cattle producers in Argentine (e.g., multi-sire pasture mating).     

Postmortem vitreous humor beta-hydroxybutyrate: its utility for the postmortem interpretation of diabetes mellitus

Ketoacidotic coma is one of the most serious complications arising from diabetes mellitus, especially type I, and may be the cause of sudden death especially in diabetes type I. Since beta-hydroxybutyrate (beta-OHB) serum concentrations might provide more information on the severity of ketoacidosis, the aim of this study was to evaluate the concentrations of beta-OHB in vitreous humor and its correlation with other biochemical parameters during postmortem examination. We intended to ascertain the sensitivity and the specificity of these markers for diagnosing diabetes mellitus and the presence of ketoacidosis. This study involved 453 cadavers with a mean age of 57.6 years (S.D. 20.7) and a mean postmortem interval of 17.8 h (S.D. 9.6, range 2-61 h). Cases were assigned to two diagnostic groups according to the antemortem diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, based on the patients' medical records. In vitreous humor statistically significant differences were found in biochemical marker concentrations between the two diagnostic groups, the highest values being obtained in the group of subjects with a previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus. The measurement of beta-OHB in vitreous humor may be a useful alternative to using blood during postmortem analysis. The presence of high levels of beta-OHB may help interpret the cause of death in diabetics when the autopsy result is negative.     

To vote or not to vote: The paradox of nonvoting

One paradox of voting states that, in a general election, in which many citizens vote, the probability that a single voter can affect the outcome is so small that in general citizens have no rational reason for voting. However, if all citizens accept this reasoning, then none will vote, and so each vote has a large probability of affecting the outcome. Hence all should vote after all. The adoption of mixed strategies resolves this paradox: if each citizen adopts a certain (small) probability of voting, then the actual number of citizens voting will be just enough to make it worth those citizens' while to vote. A Nash equilibrium point thus occurs. Here we compute Nash equilibria for the simple case of majority voting; for the more complicated case of composite voting (for example, as in a presidential election), we draw certain qualitative inferences.     

Multiparty politics in Argentina? Electoral rules and changing patterns

This article attempts to illuminate some institutional features of the past and the current electoral systems of Argentina and the problematic relationship between these characteristics and the trend of changes that the party system has been experiencing since the return of democracy in 1983. The focus is on the dangers of political stalemate that might have developed if the institutional arrangements implemented at the end of the military rule had not been reformed subsequently. The study has two objectives: (a) to demonstrate that there is a trend towards an increasing fractionalization of the Argentine party system; and (b) to show that the combination of an electoral college with a majority requirement, proportional representation to allocate presidential electors, malapportionment among districts, and this increasing process of pluralization in most provinces (where presidential elections were decided because of electoral college complexities) threatened the stability of democracy.     

Analyzing approaches to internet jurisdiction based on a model of harbors and the high seas

The inherent cross-border nature of the internet has challenged the legal system for over two decades. In this paper we introduce a model in which the internet is approached as if it were the high seas, the harbor of origin, the harbor of destination, or a combination of these. This model is used to rephrase existing case law related to internet jurisdiction from an international law perspective, the US and the EU (in particular Germany and the Netherlands). The model helps to illuminate the positions taken by the parties and the judge, and to indicate possible alternative interpretations. In some cases a high seas approach would have made sense (Yahoo!), or more recently the Vacation Rental by Owner case about trademarks where registration in one country was deemed to have an effect everywhere a person had the trademark on his or her computer screen. In H&M v G-star the Dutch Supreme Court even established jurisdiction based on an infringing product that was not available in the city of the court but was to become available on the internet some time in the future. We do not take a position in this paper on what perspective, based on our model, is best, but make clear how to identify the possible arguments.