Party-related primacy effects in proportional representation systems: evidence from a natural experiment in Polish local elections

We study the primacy effects that occur when voters cast their votes because a candidate or party is listed first on a ballot. In the elections that we analyzed, there are three potential types of such effects that might occur when voters vote for (1) the first candidate listed on the ballot in single-member district (SMD) elections (candidate primacy); (2) the first party listed on the ballot in open-list proportional representation (OLPR) elections (party primacy); or (3) the first candidate on a party list in OLPR elections (list primacy). We estimated the party primacy effect (2) and established that there was no interaction between (2) and (3). A party primacy effect is especially difficult to estimate because parties’ positions on ballots are typically fixed in all multi-member districts (MMDs) and it is impossible to separate the first-position “bonus” from a party’s normal electoral performance. A rare natural experiment allowed us to estimate the primacy party bonus between 6.02 and 8.52% of all votes cast for the 2014 Polish local elections. We attribute the large size of such bonus to the great complexity of voting in the OLPR elections, especially the much longer ballots, voting in many simultaneous elections, and ballot design as a booklet rather than a sheet.

     

Analysis of friction ridge evidence for trace amounts of paracetamol in various pharmaceutical industries by Raman spectroscopy

The detection of potentially harmful substances presents a multifaceted challenge. On one hand, it can directly save lives, on the other, it can significantly aid and enhance police work, thereby increasing the effectiveness of investigations. The research conducted in this study primarily aims to identify paracetamol in fingerprints, considering situations involving direct contact of a person with paracetamol either chronically or in a single dose. The identification procedure presented, utilizing Raman spectroscopy, aims to rapidly detect the xenobiotic following ingestion by an individual, which involves touching the tablet with their fingers—this can be termed as touch evidence in forensic science investigations. Additionally, the authors focus on assessing the impact of additives present in drugs containing paracetamol as the main active ingredient. The screening results obtained will enable us to analyze the composition of drugs in terms of potentially toxic substances, and their influence on the physicochemical activity of the active substance. We successfully identified the paracetamol molecule using a noninvasive forensic trace detection method. Samples in the form of common drugs containing 500 mg of paracetamol were studied. Throughout the study, comprehensive validation of the method was ensured through the utilization of a statistical model, which excluded sensitivity to the presence of other substances, whether additives or from the external environment. The proposed approach to trace the content of substances in fingerprint using Raman scattering analysis provides a useful starting point to enhance current analytical methods not only in forensic science but also in toxicology.     

Application of capillary electrophoresis to examination of color inkjet printing inks for forensic purposes

In the process of questioned document examination, the discrimination of inkjet printing inks is becoming more necessary due to increasingly frequent counterfeiting of documents printed by inkjet printers. Therefore, a method based on micellar electrophoretic capillary chromatography (MECC) has been developed and applied to analysis of such inks extracted from paper. With the use of an optimized and validated analytical procedure, multielectropherograms of inks taken from various models of printers made by various producers (Hewlett-Packard, Epson, Brother, Lexmark and Canon) were created. It was shown that effective differentiation of individual inks was possible in terms of migration time, order and specific shapes of characteristic peaks. By comparison of recorded UV-Vis spectra, the identification of main dyes was also achievable. The usefulness of the method was confirmed by an intralaboratory test of utility, in which several forged printouts were successfully examined. The obtained results proved that the proposed procedure is a useful tool that could be applied to ink discrimination and group identification of dyes originating from inkjet printing inks. Consequently, the developed method can be applied in the forensic field, including investigation of the authenticity of documents.