Terrorism Risk Forecasting by Ideology

The purpose of the present study is to produce foresights on terrorism. For the first time in the literature, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling to forecast terrorism. Because the relevant literature suggests that target selection and the places where terrorist attacks occur are related to a group’s strategies, we also investigate whether and how violent terrorist acts vary with respect to their surroundings in the same jurisdiction when the ideology is the point of comparison. Separatist and leftist terrorist groups committed 1152 violent terrorist acts between 2008 and 2012 in Istanbul, Turkey. Our analysis begins with a comparison of targets and risk factors by the ideology of the perpetrators for 857 separatist and 295 leftist terrorist incidents. After identifying high-risk locations, we test the predictive validity of risk terrain modeling. The study results showed that context and spatial influence—the risky areas of terrorism—vary by the nature of the ideology in the jurisdiction. Practical implications also are discussed.     

Militancy and violence in West Africa: reflecting on radicalisation,comparing contexts and evaluating effectiveness of preventive policies

By 2000, ‘radicalisation’ had become a major global issue. Although ‘9/11’ was still a year away, the American Embassies in East Africa had been bombed in 1998 and violent conflicts simmered in many parts of the world. At just about the same time, bitter civil wars, resource-centred conflicts and intra-ethnic strife raged in West Africa. Against the background of research being undertaken at King's College London,1 1. For example, Dr Olonisakin was researching into the civil wars in the region and was completing her book on the politics of United Nations involvement in the Sierra Leone war, while Dr Alao Alao, Abiodun. 2007. Natural Resources and Conflict in Africa: The Tragedy of Endowment, Rochester: University of Rochester Press.  [Google Scholar] was looking at the politics of natural resource conflicts in the region and was also completing a book on the subject. The Conflict Security and Development Group (CSDG), King's College London, was awarded a grant from the UK Department for International Development (DfID) to undertake a research project on youth vulnerability and exclusion in West Africa, with Dr Olonisakin Olonisakin, 'Funmi. 2008. Peacekeeping in Sierra Leone: The Story of UNAMSIL, Boulder: Lynne Reinner.  [Google Scholar] as principal investigator. the mutually reinforcing links between ‘radicalisation’ and ‘violence’ (potentially sensitive terms, discussed below) in West Africa became clearly obvious and a successful application to investigate this was submitted to the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).2 2. ‘Militancy and Violence in West Africa: Reflecting on Radicalisation, Comparing Contexts, and Evaluating Effectiveness of Preventive Policies’. Dr F. Olonisakin and Prof A.J.W. Gow. ESRC Award No. RES-181-25-0024. This Special Issue contains articles emerging from that work, with a set of country studies complemented by overarching synthetic analysis.     

The heritage of war and state collapse in Somalia and Somaliland: Local-level effects,external interventions and reconstruction

Somalia and Somaliland are both inhabited basically by Somaliswith small Oromo minorities in both, and a large Swahili minority in the latter. Both have multiple clans, sub-clans, lineage and blood groups and in both Islam is central to social values. Somalia had no history of a stable state before Italian rule but Somaliland did (Haud-Hargeisa-Berbera-Arabia trade axis centred). The United Republic of Somalia (rejected in the referendum by Somaliland) passed from political instability to two decades of Said Barre's increasingly centralised and repressive dictatorship which waged war against the North-west (Somaliland) and North-east (Bosaso) as well as against Ethiopia. The dictatorship collapsed in 1991 basically because of the 1987-91 Somaliland Liberation war. The economies of Somalia/Somaliland turn on pastoral production, commerce and remittances. These have recovered in part in Somalia and fully in Somaliland. However, only a fraction of the Barre regimes dissolution of service delivery and user friendly law and order capicity has been made good in Somaliland and virtually more in Somalia. USA/UN intervention did limit starvation and-for a time-open violence. That was at a high cost in finances, in the reputation of peacekeeping and to Somalis. UNOSOM answered political and civil questions before having any real grasp of civil, political and economic realities. The price was to entrench warlords and militias and to marginalise 'peacelords' (elders and merchants). Somaliland, never occupied by UNOSOM, has engaged in a series of large, long peace conferences of elders from all parts of its territory leading to a real if fragile national/territorial identity with personal security in most areas, an elected president and two house parliament, a user friendly police force and court system and the beginnings of a restored professional civil service.     

The Political Economy of State Failure: A Social Contract Approach

By employing the contract approach of state theory, this article provides a conceptual framework for the analysis of state failure phenomena which puts the emphasis on structural conditions as the root cause of state fragility and state failure. The article argues that the deep social fragility of some post-colonial societies, augmented by self-serving external interventions by foreign powers, is at the heart of their failure. Deep social fragility makes societies unable to cooperate and thus renders them powerless to discipline their leaders. Meanwhile, by linking leadership survival to the decisions and policies of a self-serving foreign power, intervention provides flawed incentives to the state leaders, which increases their predatory behaviour. In such situations, state leaders, rather than strengthening formal state institutions, again intensify the collective action problem and increase social fragility as mechanisms for survival.     

Source Determination of Red Gel Pen Inks using Raman Spectroscopy and Attenuated Total Reflectance Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy combined with Pearson's Product Moment Correlation Coefficients and Principal Component Analysis

The potential combination of two nondestructive techniques, that is, Raman spectroscopy (RS) and attenuated total reflectance–fourier transform infrared (ATR‐FTIR) spectroscopy with Pearson's product moment correlation (PPMC) coefficient (r) and principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the actual source of red gel pen ink used to write a simulated threatening note, was examined. Eighteen (18) red gel pens purchased from Japan and Malaysia from November to December 2014 where one of the pens was used to write a simulated threatening note were analyzed using RS and ATR‐FTIR spectroscopy, respectively. The spectra of all the red gel pen inks including the ink deposited on the simulated threatening note gathered from the RS and ATR‐FTIR analyses were subjected to PPMC coefficient (r) calculation and principal component analysis (PCA). The coefficients r = 0.9985 and r = 0.9912 for pairwise combination of RS and ATR‐FTIR spectra respectively and similarities in terms of PC1 and PC2 scores of one of the inks to the ink deposited on the simulated threatening note substantiated the feasibility of combining RS and ATR‐FTIR spectroscopy with PPMC coefficient (r) and PCA for successful source determination of red gel pen inks. The development of pigment spectral library had allowed the ink deposited on the threatening note to be identified as XSL Poppy Red (CI Pigment Red 112).     

What you sell is what you lend? Revealing complexity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">riba</Emphasis> in loan contract

The purpose of this paper is to resolve and examine the possible modus operandi of riba on selling and loan contract according to the Sharia’s precepts. This paper investigate the Qur’an, hadith, and juristic views on such relevant issues based on the survey done on the several sources, i.e., previous studies, Al-Qur’an and Al-Hadith and juristic views and deviate from the existing studies in two aspects, i.e., the selling and buying of goods do not involve riba and also the banks provide loan without riba. The findings of this paper are: First, the concept of interest in lending is widely accepted both in theory and practice. Second, riba exists in selling and lending. Third, the categorization and application of extensive and complex subjects of riba in economic life bring all speculative and usurious transactions under the rubric of riba prohibition. This paper important because express and disclosure riba in both exchange of goods and loans, also the social and economic developments. This is an original undertaking of this paper.