Measuring the Rarity of Fingerprint Patterns in the Dutch Population Using an Extended Classification Set

Latent print examiners often use their experience and knowledge to reach a conclusion on the identity of the source. Their conclusion is primarily based on their personal opinion on the rarity of the matching fingerprint features. Fingerprint patterns, if present, can play a significant role in the final assessment of a match. The authors believe that statistical data on the rarity of fingerprint patterns strengthens the subjective evaluation of the corresponding information. In order to provide fingerprint examiners with additional numerical support, fingerprint patterns were manually classified in a set of 24,104 fingerprints. In this study the frequencies of occurrence of 35 different fingerprint patterns have been obtained. The frequency data presented in this study can be used in the ACE‐V process applied in forensic casework, allowing for the assessment of the evidential strength related to a specific fingerprint pattern type.     

The International Dimension of Subnational Self-Government

In recent decades, complex interdependence as well as domesticissues have encouraged many constituent governments of largernational polities to assert an international competence of theirown, primarily in matters touching upon their respective jurisdictions,such as trade promotion, foreign investment, employment andrights of foreign workers, environmental and energy issues,and tourism. Two forms of the resulting paradiplomacy are identified:transborder regional regimes (dominantly based on informal consociationalprocesses) and "global micro-diplomacy" which bring constituentgovernments, including those of major cities, into direct contactwith foreign national and constituent governments. Examplesof the latter include the permanent representations of U.S.states and Canadian provinces in Tokyo, Brussels, Frankfurt,and London. The international initiatives of constituent governmentsevoke various reactions from national governments, ranging fromlack of concern to positive or highly negative responses, dependingon their perception of these activities as being politicallymarginal, complementary with, redundant to, or conflicting withnational foreign policy. From these activities there emergesthe concept of a territorial state as a multivocal actor. Neithera blessing nor a curse, subna-tional presence on the internationalscene has become a fact of life in an interdependent world.     

Book reviews

Jerry F. Hough, The Soviet Union and Social Science Theory. Harvard University Press, 1977. Russian Research Center Studies, 77. xiv + 275 pp.

Fredrick J. Fleron, Jr. (ed.), Technology and Communist Culture: The Socio‐Cultural Impact of Technology under Socialism. Praeger Publishers, New York and London, 1977, 518 pp.

David Lane, The Socialist Industrial State: Towards a Political Sociology of State Socialism. London: George Allen and Unwin, Ltd., 1976. 230 pp. £5.95.

Edward L. Warner, III. The Military in Contemporary Soviet Politics: An Institutional Analysis. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1977. 314 pp.

Economic Relations Between Socialist Countries and the Third World, edited by Deepak Nayyar. London: The Macmillan Press Ltd., 1977. xiv + 265 pp. £15.00.

Donald D. Barry, Georg Ginsberg, and Peter Maggs, Soviet Law After Stalin, Part I, The Citizen and the State in Contemporary Soviet Law. Leyden: A. W. Sijtoff, 1977. xv + 303 pp. D.fl.86.00. $36.00.

Fitzpatrick, Sheila (ed.), Cultural Revolution in Russia, 1928–1931. Bloomington and London: Indiana University Press, 1978. 309 pp. $17.50.

Tucker, Robert C. (ed.), Stalinism: Essays in Historical Interpretation. New York: Norton and Co., 1977, xx + 332 pp. $19.95.

Maurice Friedberg, A Decade of Euphoria. Western Literature in Post‐Stalin Russia, 1954–64, Indiana University Press, Bloomington & London, 1977. xii + 372 pp. £13.15.

Gregory Walker, Soviet Book Publishing Policy, Cambridge University Press, 1978. xvi + 164 pp. £6.95

Raymond Pearson, The Russian Moderates and the Crisis of Tsarism, 1914–1917. London: Macmillan, 1977. 208 pp. £8.95.

Andrew Borowiec, Yugoslavia After Tito, Praeger Special Studies in International Politics and Government, New York and London: 1977. 122 pp.

B. Knei‐Paz, The social and political thought of Leon Trotsky. Oxford University Press, 1978. 629 pp. £15.00.

Bogdan Szajkowski, ed. Documents in Communist Affairs 1977. Swansea: Christopher Davies (Publishers) Ltd. in association with the University College Cardiff Press, 1978. 363 pp. £6.95 or £4.50 paperback.

Nonconformity and Dissent in the Ukrainian SSR, 1955–1975: An Annotated Bibliography. Compiled by George Liber and Anna Mostovych. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, 1978. xxxix + 245 pp.     

Obtaining confidence intervals and Likelihood Ratios for body height estimations in images

In forensic practice, height estimations on perpetrators visible in video footage from surveillance cameras are regularly requested. There are several ways to do this. Insight is gained into the difference between actual and measured heights by taking validation measurements of a number of test persons. Variation between actual and measured heights is decomposed into a systematic part (because of height loss by pose, 3D modeling of the scene of crime, operator biases) and a random part (due to natural variation). On this basis a method is described for obtaining confidence intervals for the height, including head- and footwear, of questioned persons in images. Since the number of test persons is usually limited, the result is in terms of the Student's t distribution. In addition, for cases in which a suspect is available, an expression is obtained for the Likelihood Ratio (LR), measuring the strength of evidence of resemblance of actual height of the suspect and measured height of the perpetrator. The Likelihood Ratio depends both on the rarity of the estimated perpetrator's height and its closeness to the suspect's height. Technical theorems included may be relevant for other forensic areas as well.     

Body Height Measurements in Images

Abstract:  For any measurement of a person's height in an image, a difference exists between the actual height of the person and the image measurement. In order to gain knowledge about statistical behavior of differences between actual and measured heights it is necessary to make reference recordings, e.g., of test persons under the same recording conditions. To test whether the differences are dependent on camera and further circumstances, an experiment was set up which involved the measurement of 22 test persons using three cameras of varying quality. Reproducibility of measurements per image appears to be strongly dependent on the camera (quality), whereas systematic bias differs with the view point of the camera. Operator dependency of the measurement process is found, so its repetition by different operators is recommended.     

Performance of the FearID earprint identification system

The Forensic Ear Identification (FearID) research project was started in order to study the strength of evidence of earprints found on crime scenes. For this purpose, a sample of earprints from 1229 donors over three countries was collected. From each donor three left and three right earprints were gathered. On the one hand, operators denoted contours of the earprints to facilitate segmentation of the images, on the other anthropological specialists denoted anatomically specific locations. On the basis of this, methods for automated classification were developed and used for training of a system that classifies pairs of prints as 'matching' or 'non-matching'. Comparing lab quality prints, the system has an equal error rate of 4%. Starting from a reference database containing two prints per ear, hitlist behaviour is such that in 90% of all query searches the best hit is in the top 0.1% of the list. The results become less favourable (equal error rate of 9%) for print/mark comparisons.     

Determinants of the Increase in the Number of Interest Groups in Western Democracies: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from 21 OECD Countries

Mancur Olson's theory of institutionalsclerosis is based on the notion that thenumber of interest groups within a countryincreases with the duration of itspolitical stability. The following paperargues that the increase in the number ofinterest groups over time could also be aconcomitant of economic development.Theoretically, both explanations provetenable. An empirical cross-sectionalregression analysis using data from 21OECD countries finds no evidence for asignificant impact of the duration ofpolitical stability on the number ofinterest groups. A significantly positiveeffect is, however, reported for the degreeof economic development.     

Are ivory antiques actually antique?

Crime, Law and Social Change - Twenty-five samples of ivory artefacts were analysed using a radiocarbon dating method. These artefacts were part of a collection of 77 items seized during a wildlife...     

Biased beliefs and retrospective voting: why democracies choose mediocre policies

There are two well-established empirical regularities about voters. First, they entertain systematically biased beliefs about how public policies affect economic outcomes. Second, voters vote retrospectively: they punish the incumbent for poor and reward him for good macroeconomic performance. Thus, political parties face a trade-off: offering popular yet economically harmful policies increases the chance of being elected today, but decreases the chance of re-election. We provide the first rigorous game-theoretical analysis of the trade-off. The model addresses two questions: How can biased beliefs and retrospective voting be explained consistently? What policy outcomes emerge in party competition? To micro-found persistently biased beliefs we introduce the psychological concept of mental models. Deviating from earlier studies, we allow parties to choose strategic mixtures of populist (i.e., bad yet popular) and good (but less popular) platforms. We show that retrospective voting provides a self-correction mechanism, so that parties offer strategic mixtures of policies in equilibrium rather than purely populist or purely good policy platforms. Thus, democracy is characterized by mediocre policy choices and half-hearted reforms. An incumbent bias or unclear responsibilities weaken the self-correction mechanism.