Determination of blood/serum ratios of different forensically relevant analytes in authentic samples

For forensic toxicological investigations only whole blood, but no serum is often available. Pharmacokinetic data are helpful for interpreting the results, but most of these studies indicate serum or plasma concentrations. In order to obtain reliable conversion factors which also take intersubject variability into account, the blood/serum ratios (B/S) of oxycodone, morphine, fentanyl, hydromorphone, zopiclone, MDMA, dexamphetamine, alprazolam, risperidone and 9-hydroxyrisperidone were determined by LC-MS/MS using authentic samples. Blood and corresponding serum samples were obtained from driving studies performed with controlled or known dosages of the above drugs. The analytes were analysed in blood and serum and the following mean B/S ratios (relative standard deviations) were determined: oxycodone 1.48 (8.19 %); morphine 1.03 (3.59 %); fentanyl 0.87 (13.9 %); hydromorphone 1.04 (8.11 %); zopiclone 0.89 (16.1 %); MDMA 1.19 (8.04 %); dexamphetamine 0.89 (10.9 %); alprazolam 0.81 (5.84 %); risperidone 0.65 (7.52 %); 9-hydroxyrisperidone 0.73 (12.3 %). These mean values are largely in line with those reported in the literature. The B/S ratios did not appear to depend on partition coefficients, whereas there was strong evidence that B/S ratios decreased with increasing plasma protein binding.     

From polls to votes to seats: Forecasting the 2010 British general election

This paper outlines and discusses techniques for three stages in forecasting parliamentary seats from British opinion polls: adjusting and aggregating published vote-intention figures from across different polls; forecasting how public opinion might change before election day; and predicting the seat totals from the forecasted election-day vote shares. Specifically, we consider a state-space model for opinion polls which correct for house effects and other sources of survey error, the estimation of the historical relationship between polls and the election-day share of the vote, and a probabilistic approach to predicting the winner in each constituency.     

The dynamic properties of individual-level party identification in the United States

Central to traditionalist and revisionist perspectives of individual-level party identification is a debate about the stability of party identification. We revisit the debate about the dynamic properties and processes underlying party identification. We present a conceptual framework that defines heterogeneity and state dependence as endpoints of a continuum underlying partisan stability, which is important in understanding an individual’s capacity for updating partisanship. Using panel data from the 1992-1996 National Election Study, we estimate dynamic, random effects multinomial logit models of party identification that distinguish between heterogeneity and “true state dependence.” In accord with traditionalist perspectives, our evidence suggests that in general, minimal state dependence underlies party identification; party identification is strongly stationary. However, we find that age enhances the magnitude of state dependence, which provides some support for revisionist theories. Overall, our work showcases how explaining individual-level dynamics expands our knowledge of partisan stability.     

MARRIAGE ‘AMONG THE MURKANS’

Abstract Stella Miles Franklin (1879–1954) is best known for contributions to a uniquely Australian literary tradition. However, during her American years (1906–1915) when she worked in Chicago with the National Women's Trade Union League, Franklin wrote much unpublished fiction in the New Woman literary genre common to early-twentieth-century US women's traditions. This paper focuses on two such little-known unpublished stories: ‘Uncle Robert's Wedding Present’ (1908) and ‘Teaching Him’ (1909), discussing ways their entanglements with questions of marriage and economics are grounded in Franklin's work and personal life and in the intellectual influences that shaped her writing.     

Racial Context and Crime Reporting: A Test of Black’s Stratification Hypothesis

Contextual factors that contribute to race differences in reporting crime to the police are an important element in Donald Black??s theory of the behavior of the law, yet few studies have investigated whether these differences vary depending on social context. The present study investigates whether the relationships between victim and offender race and the reporting of crime are moderated by the level of racial stratification in a given place as Black??s stratification hypothesis would predict. Using victim survey data from 40 metropolitan areas, as well as data from other sources, we find results that are consistent with Black??s stratification hypothesis, namely, that victim and offender race are more strongly associated with the reporting of crime in those metropolitan areas where the gap in economic status between blacks and whites is larger and the groups are more residentially segregated. The theory, however, is unable to account for the high rates of reporting of black-on-black assaults found across the 40 metropolitan areas. The question of how the needs of black victims may outweigh their reluctance to call the police is an important issue for future research.     

Systemic Self-Regulation: A Framework for Trauma-Informed Services in Residential Juvenile Justice Programs

Most youth detained in juvenile justice facilities have extensive histories of exposure to psychological trauma. Traumatic stress plays a key role in their mental health and behavioral problems and needs, and in their safety and rehabilitation and the security and effectiveness of detention facilities. We provide an overview of the barriers to successful provision of mental health services for youths in juvenile justice facilities, including those involving youth, parents, and juvenile justice residential facility staff and administrators. Next, we discuss the relevance and potential utility of approaching mental health needs using posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and more broadly posttraumatic dysregulation, as an organizing framework. Examples of how a posttraumatic dysregulation perspective can enhance juvenile justice residential facility milieus and services are presented, with an overview of traumatic stress intervention models that have shown promise, or potentially could be deployed, in developing and sustaining trauma-informed juvenile justice facilities.     

The local agenda 21 issue commission in bath and North‐East Somerset: Review of a community consultation exercise towards sustainability

Local authorities in the UK have come under renewed pressure from central government both to adopt Local Agenda 21 and to advance participative democracy. In late 1996/early 1997, the (then) new unitary authority of Bath and North‐East Somerset Council set up a Local Agenda 21 Issue Commission to review its ‘sustainability’ performance and policy development practice with the direct involvement of the community. The way in which the commission was conceived and conducted resulted in difficulties in identifying and carrying out its task. Nonetheless, it kick‐started significant steps towards LA 21 within the council, and provided valuable insights into LA 21 implementation, and the nature of meaningful consultation.