The race may be close but my horse is going to win: Wish fulfillment in the 1980 presidential election

Using data from the 1980 U.S. presidential election, we investigate the extent to which voter expectations about candidate electoral success and margin of victory are subject to systematic biases. In particular, we examine the extent to which candidate supporters overestimate their choice's likelihood of success. After finding a rather dramatic bias in the direction of wishful thinking, we review alternative explanations of this phenomenon, including a model based on nonrandom contact networks and one based on preference-related differences in expectations about exogenous variables that could affect the election outcome.     

C. Reviews: general

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI. VOL. III: THE CHILDREN OF ISRAEL. Translated by WILLIAM M. BRINNER. Albany, N.Y., SUNY Press, 1991. xii, 194 pp. $44.00 (hb), $14.95 (pb).

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI. VOL. XXXIII: STORM AND STRESS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONTIERS OF THE ‘ABBASID CALIPHATE. Translated by C.E. BOSWORTH. Albany, N.Y., SUNY Press, 1991. xix, 239 pp. $57.50 (hb), $18.95 (pb).

THE AWAKENING OF PERSIA: THE REIGN OF NASR AL‐DIN SHAH 1848–1896. By A.J. ABRAHAM. USA, Vande Vere Publishing, 1992. 64pp. $18.95.

THE EMERGENCE OF KURDISH NATIONALISM AND THE SHAIKH SAID REBELLION, 1880–1925. By ROBERT OLSON. Austin, University of Texas Press, 1992.

THE ARAB BUREAU: BRITISH POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST, 1916–1920. By BRUCE WESTRATE. University Park, PA, Pennsylvania State University Press, 1992. xvi, 240 pp. $35.

DIE TÜRKEI UND ÄGYPTEN IN DER WELTWIRTSCHAFTSKRISE 1929–1933. By CAMILLA DAWLETSCHIN‐LINDER. (Studien zur modernen Geschichte, 40). Stuttgart, Franz Steiner Verlag, 1989. xviii, 187 pp. 20 tables, 6 diagrams. DM 68‐.

EGYPT FROM INDEPENDENCE TO REVOLUTION, 1919–1952. By SELMA BOTMAN. Syracuse, Syracuse University Press, 1991.

EXPULSION OF THE PALESTINIANS: THE CONCEPT OF ‘TRANSFER’ IN ZIONIST POLITICAL THOUGHT 1882–1948. By NUR MASALHA. Washington, DC, Institute for Palestine Studies, 1992. iii, 235pp. $24.95 (hb), $11.95 (pb).

TRANSITION TO SELF‐GOVERNMENT: PRACTICAL STEPS TOWARD ISRAELI‐PALESTINIAN PEACE. Report of a study group convened by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, ANN MOSELY LESCH, principal author. Indiana University Press, 1993. 160pp. £22.50 (hb), £9.99 (pb).

GREATER SYRIA: THE HISTORY OF AN AMBITION. By DANIEL PIPES. New York and Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1990. viii, 240pp.

IBN SAUD: FOUNDER OF A KINGDOM. By LESLIE McLOUGHLIN. Basingstoke, Macmillan in association with St Antony's College, Oxford, 1993. 240pp. £40.00.

THE DESPAIRING DEVELOPER: DIARY OF AN AID WORKER IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By TIMOTHY MORRIS. London, Tauris, 1991.

A MODERN CULTURAL HISTORY OF BAHRAIN. By SAMI A. HANNA. Bahrain, National Council for Culture Arts and Literature, 1991. 107pp.

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE GULF WAR. By KAMRAN MOFID. London, Routledge, 1990. xxiv, 177pp.

EARLY ARABIC POETRY: MARATHI AND SU'LUK POEMS, Vol. 1. Edition, translation, and commentary by ALAN JONES. (Oxford Oriental Institute Monographs, 14.) Reading, Ithaca Press, 1992. ix, 270 pp. Map. £25.00.

RELIGION, LEARNING AND SCIENCE IN THE ‘ABBASID PERIOD. Edited by M.J.L. YOUNG, J.D. LATHAM and R.B. SERJEANT. (The Cambridge History of Arabic Literature.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991. xxi, 587pp. £ 60.00 (hb).

THREE SHADOW PLAYS. By MUHAMMAD IBN DANIYAL. Edited by PAUL KAHLE. Critical apparatus by DEREK HOPWOOD. Introductory Essay by MUSTAFA BADAWI. (E.J.W. Gibb Memorial, New Series, 32.) Cambridge and Warminster, Gibb Memorial Trust/Aris and Phillips, 1992. 154pp. in Arabic and 30pp. in English. £12.00.

GENRE AND LANGUAGE IN MODERN ARABIC LITERATURE. By SASSON SOMEKH. Wiesbaden, Harrassowittz, 1991.

DER ARABISCHE DIALEKT DER JUDEN VON ‘AQRA UND ARBIL (Semitica Viva, 5.) By OTTO JASTROW. Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1990. 438pp. DM 112.‐

1 For technical reasons, the symbol ‘e’ has been substituted for the ‘inverted e’ of the original throughout this review. [—Ed.]

WADAAN: REINFORCING READING/WRITING/FIRST LEVEL ARABIC COURSE, Vol.4. By DIONISIUS A. AGIUS, and PARWEEN N. ARIF. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 65 pp.

HAYYAN BINA: KITAB AL‐TAMARIN. DRILLS/FIRST LEVEL ARABIC COURSE, Vol.5. By DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 111 pp.

MUGHAMARAT ‘AJIBA FI QISAS MUFIDA: THIRD LEVEL ARABIC COURSE BOOK 1. By PARWEEN N. ARIF and DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 64 pp.

UNVEILING ISLAM. By ROGER DU PASQUIER. Cambridge, Islamic Texts Society, 1992. viii, 157pp. £6.95.

CULTURAL SCHIZOPHRENIA. By DARYUSH SHAYEGAN. London, Saqi Books, 1992. vii, 188pp.     

Analyses factorielles et choix méthodologiques: réplique à Markus Freitag

In this contribution, we discuss the number of factors to consider as well as the consequences of rotation in the case of principal components analysis, a technique belonging to the family of factor analysis. The article by Freitag in this issue, dedicated to the study of social capital in Switzerland, is used as example. This contribution shows the impact of different missing values estimations and, more generally, stresses the importance of looking at different solutions in an exploratory perspective. It underscores also the importance to have access to the data in order to allow a new analysis and, consequently, the possibility of the scientific debate.     

Devolution and outsourcing of municipal services in Kampala city,Uganda: an early assessment

The late 1980s saw the beginning of wide‐ranging economic and political reforms in Africa, prompted by both external and internal pressures. Demands for political reform pushed for democratisation, including decentralisation of power and resources to lower levels of government. Alongside pressures for democratisation were those for economic liberalisation, including the rolling back of the state characterised by, among other things, reducing its role in service provision. This article looks at aspects of political and economic liberalisation in Uganda, involving devolution and outsourcing of service provision in Kampala city. It focuses on the city's experience with devolution and outsourcing of solid waste management. It shows that, pockets of resistance notwithstanding, the reforms enjoyed widespread popularity and led to many positive changes. In addition, it shows that they begot problems and encountered others that rendered the process of change more problematic than its advocates had anticipated. Its major conclusion is that while devolution and outsourcing are useful tools for improving service delivery, they cannot ensure long‐term success in the absence of financial, technical and managerial capacity on the part of contractors and contracting authorities. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

National identity and Taiwan's Mainland China policy

Taiwan is a mildly divided society—divided essentially along the lines of national identity. Indeed, there is no doubt that national identity is the dominant factor affecting Taiwan's mainland China policy. Other factors such as business interests and security concerns may enter the picture from time to time, but they often get bogged down in the national identity controversies. As a matter of fact, there is high correlation between people's attitudes toward business and security concerns and their positions on the national identity issue. The key to understanding Taiwan's mainland China policy is thus the distribution of voters on the national identity issue and how it is translated into the political fortunes of various political parties in the electoral game.     

North American first peoples: slipping up into market citizenship?

This article explores the nature of Aboriginal demands for a citizenship regime grounded in a substantive recognition of cultural difference and inherent rights in Mexico and Canada. It provides an overview of the different evolution of Aboriginal citizenship in each country but focuses on two recent development projects, the Puebla Panama Plan in Mexico and the Mackenzie Valley pipeline in Canada. These cases demonstrate the ways in which neo‐liberal globalism is reshaping the substantive recognition of Aboriginal cultural difference and inherent rights. While contemporary neo‐liberal rhetoric recognizes cultural difference, the models of development employed effectively separate territory from the ideas of self‐government, culture and identity. The article concludes that the neo‐liberal turn in the construction of Aboriginal citizenship undercuts potentially much richer conceptions of Indigenous citizenship offered by the First Peoples of North America.