Enforcing the Climate Regime: Game Theory and the Marrakesh Accords

This article reviews basic insights about compliance and "hard" enforcement that can be derived from various non-cooperative equilibrium concepts, and evaluates the Marrakesh Accords in light of these insights. Five different notions of equilibrium are considered – the Nash equilibrium, the subgame perfect equilibrium, the renegotiation proof equilibrium, the coalition proof equilibrium, and the perfect Bayesian equilibrium. These various types of equilibrium have a number of implications for effective enforcement: (1) Consequences of non-compliance should be more than proportionate. (2) Punishment needs to take place on the Pareto frontier, rather than by reversion to some suboptimal state. (3) An effective enforcement system must be able to curb collective as well as individual incentives to cheat. (4) A fully transparent enforcement regime is not unconditionally a good thing. It is concluded that constructing an effective system for "hard" enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol is a formidable task that has only partially been accomplished by the Marrakesh Accords. In practice, however, the design of the compliance system for the climate regime had to balance a desire to minimize non-compliance against other important goals, including the need for due process.     

Sweden

European Journal of Political Research -     

Book reviews

Word Processing for Solicitors, Kevin Townsend and Kate Taphouse, Gower Publishing, 1983 £12.50

Computer Law, Colin Tapper, Longman, London and New York, 1983 Third Edition, £9.50

Understanding Computer Contracts, Martin Edwards, Waterlow Publishers, 1983 £6.50

Data Protection: Perspectives on Information Privacy, Edited by Colin Bourn & John Benyon, Department of Adult Education, University of Leicester, 1983 £5

The Computer in Court, Alistair Kelman and Richard Sizer, Gower Publishing Company, 1982 £15.50

Principles of Database Systems, Jeffrey D Ullman, Pitman Publishing Ltd, 1982 Second Edition £13.95

Computers and the Law Teacher, A report of the proceedings of a conference held at North Staffordshire Polytechnic, Edited by David V Marshall, North Staffordshire Polytechnic, 1983 £3     

From evaluation to auditing and from programs to institutions: Causes and consequences of the decline of the program approach

In the wake of the “audit revolution” during the 1980s and 1990s, administrative systems across the western world have tended to gradually downplay evaluation as a component of the policy process. At the same time, auditing has dramatically increased in scope and depth, and has also, to some extent, come to fill the role in policymaking previously played by evaluation studies. This article reviews this development from the perspective of policymaking and institutional change or “drift.” Specifically, we look at the types of information and knowledge that are lost and gained as a result of these developments. We apply a cross‐national approach, drawing on the examples from the European and North American contexts.     

Youth Pathways to Placement: The Influence of Gender, Mental Health Need and Trauma on Confinement in the Juvenile Justice System

Although the juvenile crime rate has generally declined, the involvement of girls in the juvenile justice system has been increasing. Possible explanations for this gender difference include the impact of exposure to trauma and mental health needs on developmental pathways and the resulting influence of youth’s involvement in the justice system. This study examined the influence of gender, mental health needs and trauma on the risk of out-of-home placement for juvenile offenders. The sample included youth referred to three urban juvenile probation departments in Texas between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2008 and who received state-mandated mental health screening (N = 34,222; 30.1 % female). The analysis revealed that, for both genders, elevated scores on the seven factor-analytically derived subscales of a mental health screening instrument (Alcohol and Drug Use, Depressed-Anxious, Somatic Complaints, Suicidal Ideation, Thought Disturbance, and Traumatic Experiences), especially related to past traumatic experiences, influenced how deeply juveniles penetrated the system. The findings suggest that additional research is needed to determine the effectiveness of trauma interventions and the implementation of trauma informed systems for youth involved with the juvenile justice system.     

Mainstreaming of Racist Anti-Roma Discourses in the Media in Hungary

The article focuses on the rise and spread of racist language in public debate in Hungary. It investigates how radical right discourses—that is, the relegitimating of the racist idea of “Gypsy crime”—have been transmitted by the mainstream media thus contributing to the decline of a short-lived political correctness in Hungary. The analysis explores how racism has become more and more accepted and how the mainstream has embraced the radical right's propositions, turning them into a “digestible” rhetoric while “breaking the taboos” of antiracism.     

A Model of Sexual Abuse’s Effects on Suicidal Behavior and Delinquency: The Role of Emotions as Mediating Factors

Drawing on Agnew’s general strain theory, we examined whether depressed mood and anger mediated the effects of sexual abuse on suicidal behavior and delinquency. Participants included 9,113 students attending high schools in Iceland. Structural equation modeling showed that, while controlling for family structure and parental education, being exposed to strain in the form of sexual abuse was positively related to both depressed mood and anger. The effects of sexual abuse on suicidal behavior of both boys and girls were twice as strong through depressed mood as through anger. The effects of sexual abuse on outwardly-directed forms of delinquency for both genders were stronger through anger than through depressed mood. These findings highlight the complex nature of the effects of strain on adolescents’ emotions and behavior. Moreover, they show that depression—in contrast to outwardly-directed delinquency, where feelings of anger are predominantly influential—is more relevant than anger to suicidal behavior.

The Public Cost of Unilateral Action

Scholarship on democratic responsiveness focuses on whether political outcomes reflect public opinion but overlooks attitudes toward how power is used to achieve those policies. We argue that public attitudes toward unilateral action lead to negative evaluations of presidents who exercise unilateral powers and policies achieved through their use. Evidence from two studies supports our argument. In three nationally representative survey experiments conducted across a range of policy domains, we find that the public reacts negatively when policies are achieved through unilateral powers instead of through legislation passed by Congress. We further show these costs are greatest among respondents who support the president's policy goals. In an observational study, we show that attitudes toward unilateral action in the abstract affect how respondents evaluate policies achieved through unilateral action by presidents from Lincoln to Obama. Our results suggest that public opinion may constrain presidents' use of unilateral powers.     

Norwegian parliamentary elections, 1906–2013: representation and turnout across four electoral systems

Since gaining full independence in 1905, Norway has experienced more than a century of democratic elections, and has reformed its electoral system three times, most notably with the switch from a two-round runoff system to proportional representation in 1919. This research note introduces a new dataset featuring all candidates running for parliamentary (Storting) elections from 1906 to 2013, and documents the patterns over time and across electoral systems in the development of the party system; candidates’ gender, age, occupation, and geographic ties; and voter turnout. Scholars interested in using the dataset can gain access to it through the Norwegian Centre for Research Data.