A New Predictor of Local Financial Distress

The development of predictive models for financial distress is a recurring topic in both private and public contexts, although currently its repercussions are greater in the public sphere, where efforts are being made to define new warning systems for fiscal crises. The present study thus aims first to show the similarities and differences between the absolute and relative models based on a 10-point scale, in order to subsequently combine the positive aspects of both proposals to find a system that can determine local fiscal distress in a more robust way.

The results obtained show that the optimum predictive system is a slight variant of the model proposed by Kloha et al. (2005) Kloha, P., Weissert, C. S. and Kleine, R. 2005. Developing and testing a composite model to predict local fiscal distress. Public Administration Review, 65(3): 313–323. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. This variant consists of the inclusion of two indicators of financial independence proposed by Zafra-Gómez et al. (2009a) Zafra-Gomez, J. S., López-Hernández, A. M. and Hernández-Bastida, A. 2009a. Developing an alert system for local governments in financial crisis. Public Money &; Management, 29(3): 175–82. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar] for which an alert threshold has been empirically determined.     

Comptes Rendus Book Reviews

This article follows the efforts of white settlers to impose cotton as an export crop in Natal and Zululand. Touted as a commodity capable of remaking land and life in the region in the 1850s, the 1860s, and again in the 1910s and 1920s, cotton never achieved more than marginal status in the region's agricultural economy. Its story is one of historical amnesia: although faith in the region's cotton prospects dipped following each spectacular failure, it was routinely resurrected once previous failures had been accounted for, or memories of them had faded.

Two crucial issues are at the centre of this episodic history. First, I explore the logistics of planned expansion, and the reasons for the repeated collapse of cotton-growing schemes. Second, I unravel the side effects of these difficult and disappointing efforts and argue that, despite repeated failure, cotton facilitated important structural changes to the region's agricultural, political and economic landscape.     

ETA: From secret army to social movement – the post‐Franco schism of the Basque nationalist movement

Under the Franco dictatorship, post‐Civil War generations of Basques grew up in a climate of physical violence and symbolic repression. Through the imposition of controls on all manifestations of Basque cultural and linguistic expression, the Spanish state transformed even the simplest of actions into defiant symbols of Basque identity. Rejecting, as ineffectual, attempts by the existing Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) to defend Basque culture, the more militant members of the PNV's youth organization attempted to stimulate a radical ethnic movement through a new organization, Euskadi ‘ta Askatasuna [Basque Homeland and Freedom (ETA)]. From its founding in 1959, ETA's principal goals have been the achievement of Basque independence and the revival of Basque culture and language. Its principal strategy has remained armed resistance to Spanish rule. To date, ETA has been responsible for approximately 600 deaths. In this article, we focus on the strategic and organizational evolution of ETA from secret army to social movement in the post‐Franco era. In particular, we seek to clarify the role that violence plays in the symbolic conflict of Basque/Spanish collective identities and to identify how the democratization process has influenced the strategies and tactics adopted by ETA as well as by those political organizations which have emerged from ETA and its numerous factions.     

Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections

This paper analyses the impact of economic conditions on Portuguese municipal electoral outcomes. We use two extensive datasets to estimate an economic voting model which accounts for the possibility that different levels of government have different levels of responsibility for economic outcomes and for clarity of government responsibility. The empirical results indicate that the performance of the national economy is important especially if local governments are of the same party as the central government. The municipal situation is also relevant particularly in scenarios of greater clarity of national and sub-national government responsibility.     

The Portuguese 2005 legislative election: Return to the left

According to the ‘decline of parliaments’ thesis that dominates the literature, the executive branch has increased its powers vis-à-vis the legislature. However, at the same time most studies indicate that the parliaments in the Nordic region are on average stronger than their counterparts in central and southern European countries. This article examines the validity of the ‘decline of parliaments’ thesis in the context of Finland, a country where recent constitutional reforms have strengthened parliamentarism by reducing the powers of the president and empowering the government and the parliament. Analysing the constitutional balance of power between state organs, the interaction between the government and the opposition, and the ability of the parliament to hold the cabinet accountable, this article argues that despite its stronger constitutional position, the Eduskunta faces considerable difficulties in controlling the government.     

The materialist/post‐materialist value dimension as a party cleavage in the Nordic countries

A growing political polarisation on ethnic integration policy is characteristic of current discussions in Dutch politics. The preferences of Dutch citizens, by contrast, remain fairly stable over time. Thus, polarised politics in the Netherlands is assumed to grow apart from the preferences of ordinary citizens, leading to a gap between politics and society. The present article describes and compares trends in societal and political polarisation on ethnic integration policy in the Netherlands between 1994 and 2006. Three mechanisms are explored that explain a discrepancy between trends in political and societal polarisation: (a) parties' responsiveness to political elites, (b) mean partisan representation, and (c) issue salience. Analyses of data from Dutch election studies and party manifestos reveal the existence of a discrepancy in trends. Political polarisation appears to be associated with trends in mean partisan polarisation and in issue salience, and not with trends in political elite polarisation.     

Otto Kirchheimer and the catch-all party

Otto Kirchheimer's conception of the catch-all party was part of his more comprehensive theory of party transformation, encompassing four interrelated political processes. By tracing the development of the catch-all thesis and placing it within the wider context of Kirchheimer's complete work, it is possible to reconstruct a more precise understanding of what Kirchheimer meant by the catch-all concept, which itself remains highly contested. Kirchheimer's anxiety about modern democracy originated with what he saw as the vanishing of principled opposition within parliament and society, and the reduction of politics to the mere management of the state. This leads to collusion of political parties and the state, severing of the societal links of party organisations, and erosion of the classic separation of powers. Vanishing opposition, cartelisation and professionalisation of politics pits citizens against a powerful state, which increases political cynicism and apathy. Kirchheimer's comprehensive approach remains relevant to much of the contemporary debate about the transformation of Western political systems.     

A Divided Nation? The 2014 Belgian Federal Elections

The critical 2010 federal elections left the Flemish nationalists (N-VA) the dominant political party in the north and the francophone Socialists (PS) in the south of the country, unable to find common ground on the issue of devolution. It took no fewer than 541 days – a world record – to form a government rallying Christian Democrats (CD&V and cdH), Liberals (Open VLD and MR), and Socialists (sp.a and PS). The 2014 federal elections marked a change in tone, being fought on socio-economic terms, but confirmed the stalemate nonetheless. The N-VA made further inroads, winning 29.8 per cent of the vote in the Dutch-speaking community. The governing parties held firm, however; the PS in particular remained the largest political formation in the south, winning 31.0 per cent of the vote in the French-speaking community. Moreover, on 25 May 2014 federal elections, regional elections in Flanders, Wallonia, and Brussels (and the German-speaking community), and European elections were held simultaneously, further raising the stakes in the complex, interconnected, government formation.     

The court of justice of the European community and the politics of institutional reform

Two prominent jurists recently proposed a reform of the European Court of Justice that aims at adapting it to the gradual fédéralisation of the Community (European political union) and particularly to the extension of majority voting in the Community council. Their judicial proposal would, however, generally reinforce the contemporary tendency of the Court to defend all legislative initiatives of the Community. This account presents several alternative reforms that could better respond to the political need for an impartial arbiter for conflicting interpretations of Community competences. Debate on the political role of the European Court of Justice and on its reform must be considerably broadened.     

Budget Transparency in Local Governments: An Empirical Analysis

The aim of this paper is to shed additional light on the determinants of budget transparency in local governments. Our work is based on a Likert-type survey questionnaire specifically designed to measure budget transparency in small municipalities. The questionnaire is based on the IMF's revised Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency (2007). Results from 33 Galician municipalities are used to assess its internal consistency and to test a battery of hypotheses on the determinants of budget transparency. While several previous findings of the literature are confirmed, some new results are also obtained.