Predicting Outcomes with Juvenile Court Case Histories

This report supplements a prior article in this journal (Rogers and Williams, 1994). Utilizing Ted Palmer's 1991 formulation, we identified a set of indicators relevant to juvenile court decision-making and to policy formulation. Here, through a more stringent statistical technique, we provide additional evidence of the potential that juvenile court histories possess for both theory and practice. We explore case materials gained and maintained by juvenile probation officers as a way of generating outcome predictors for whether youth receive probation or institutionalization. Using discriminant function analysis, we obtain relatively good prediction. Delinquency history and social psychological variables are found to enhance prediction of case outcomes. Contrary to some scholars, we believe the juvenile court is here to stay. Thus, the fundamental issue becomes one of making it a more efficient, effective instrument for reintegrating youths it must serve. As this institution approaches its centennial in 1999, we believe the court must become a focal point of research. This article is intended to further that task. After identifying the three strongest predictive variables (offense after first hearing, alienation, and denial of blame), we employ our seven key indicators as a guide for illustrating their everyday application for juvenile probation officers working with their youthful clientele.     

Gender convergence in crime: Evidence from Canadian adult offense charge data

This study provided some new empirical evidence relating to the hypothesis that there was convergence between certain male and female offenses over time. Using time-series data for adults charged with offenses in Canada over the period 1983 to 2000, several formal statistical tests of this convergence hypothesis were conducted. This study allowed for the particular characteristics of the data, such as various types of structural breaks and changes over time in the process that generated the data. A number of new tests that had not previously been applied to this problem were employed, and the results that were obtained provided the first strong evidence in favor of gender-convergence for a range of offenses in Canada.     

Does sex education affect adolescent sexual behaviors and health?

This study examines whether offering sex education to young teenagers affects several measures of adolescent sexual behavior and health: virginity status, contraceptive use, frequency of intercourse, likelihood of pregnancy, and probability of contracting a sexually transmitted disease. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, I find that while sex education is associated with adverse health outcomes, there is little evidence of a causal link after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity via fixed effects and instrumental variables. These findings suggest that those on each side of the ideological debate over sex education are, in a sense, both correct and mistaken. Opponents are correct in observing that sex education is associated with adverse health outcomes, but are generally incorrect in interpreting this relationship causally. Proponents are generally correct in claiming that sex education does not encourage risky sexual activity, but are incorrect in asserting that investments in typical school-based sex education programs produce measurable health benefits.     

The committee assignment process as an optimal contracting problem

This paper adapts a simple model from the optimal contracting literature to explain the relationship between political parties and non-incumbent candidates. The model predicts that legislators with a higher opportunity cost of government service will receive better committee assignments. Using data that spans 12 Congresses (97th to 108th), I find that when the opportunity cost of Senate service is measured by previous occupation, freshmen senators with a high opportunity cost for serving (those who were lawyers) were given good committee assignments, while freshmen senators with a low opportunity cost for serving (professors, and those with relatives already in politics) were given worse committee assignments.