Military Cuts and Conversion in the Defense Industry

The partial reorientation of the Soviet defense industry toward civilian production is examined by a prominent Western specialist in the context of the overall reduction in military spending. Provisions of the current program for conversion in the defense complex are analyzed with due consideration of anticipated effects on the economy at large. The author discusses the expected mix between civilian and military production within the defense industry, and notes the range and number of enterprises affected. Also outlined are the implications of the conversion program for military R&D and for the size and compensation of the workforce in the defense complex, journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P20, H56.     

Exploring poverty traps and social exclusion in South Africa using qualitative and quantitative data

Recent theoretical work hypothesises that a polarised society like South Africa will suffer a legacy of ineffective social capital and blocked pathways of upward mobility that leaves large numbers of people trapped in poverty. To explore these ideas, this paper employs a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. Novel econometric analysis of asset dynamics over the 1993–98 period identifies a dynamic asset poverty threshold that signals that large numbers of South Africans are indeed trapped without a pathway out of poverty. Qualitative analysis of this period and the period 1998–2001 more deeply examines patterns of mobility, and confirms the continuation of this pattern of limited upward mobility and a low-level poverty trap. In addition, the qualitative data permit a closer look at the specific role played by social relationships. While finding ample evidence of active social capital and networks, these are more helpful for non-poor households. For the poor, social capital at best helps stabilise livelihoods at low levels and does little to promote upward mobility. While there is thus some economic sense to sociability in South Africa, elimination of the polarised economic legacy of apartheid will ultimately require more proactive efforts to assure that households have access to a minimum bundle of assets and to the markets needed to effectively build on those assets over time.     

Multiple stressors,violence in the family of origin,and marital aggression: A longitudinal investigation

The negative perception of stress is significantly associated with marital aggression, as is violence in one's family of origin. However, most individuals experiencing stress do not engage in family violence. The present study tests an aspect of social learning theory, proposing that violence in one's family of origin predisposes one to react to stress by aggressing against one's spouse. Two hundred and seventy five couples completed questionnaires measuring multiple (work and life) stress, and marital aggression 6 and 18 months following their wedding. Information on violence in their family of origin was collected 1 month prior to their wedding. Moderated multiple regressions showed that for women, stress predicted marital aggression 1 year later after controlling for age, education, and initial marital aggression. No effects emerged for violence in the family of origin for either men or women. Conceptual implications for further studying the role of violence in the family of origin and the relationship between multiple Stressors and physical aggression are advanced.     

Designing a secure Iraq: a US policy prescription

The third Western attempt at regime construction in Iraq is now underway. Western plans to rebuild the Iraqi state will fail again if they ignore the real roots of Iraqi insecurity: its geopolitical weakness. The preoccupation with designing a new constitution ignores the historical evidence of the 1930s and 1950s that it is bound to fail. Surrounded by far larger powers such as Turkey and Iran, Iraq desperately needs long‐term commitments of arms and allies. While de‐garrisoning is a vital part of the regional peace puzzle, an insecure Iraq destabilises politics in Baghdad and fuels arms competitions. Thus the USA and UK must intercede on Iraq's behalf and help to resolve the long‐standing disputes over the unfair division of the Shatt al‐Arab with Iran, and access to sea arrangements with Kuwait. If Iraq is permitted to drift away a decade after reconstruction, its regime will again fall.