Consequences of legal risk communication for sanction perception updating and white-collar criminality

Objectives

Scholars have long emphasized that communicating, or “advertising”, information about legal sanction risk is necessary for the success of deterrence-based crime policies. However, scant research has evaluated whether direct communications about legal risk can cause sanction perception updating, the updating of ambiguity in sanction perceptions, or changes in persons’ willingness to offend. No prior studies have evaluated sanction perception updating for white-collar crimes.

Methods

To address this research void, the current study analyzes data from an experiment embedded in a recent national survey (N?=?878). Multivariate regression models estimate the effect of providing participants with information about the “objective” arrest risk for white-collar offenses on their sanction perceptions.

Results

The findings provide the first evidence that such information, when it is inconsistent with individuals’ prior beliefs, causes them to update: (1) their perceptions of the certainty of arrest; (2) their ambiguity about arrest risk; and, indirectly, (3) their willingness to commit white-collar crimes.

Conclusions

The results imply that individuals are willing to incorporate relevant information into their subjective beliefs about sanction risks. Importantly, however, they also make meaningful distinctions about the value of new information for understanding criminal risks.

     

Bias and Overconfidence in Parametric Models of Interactive Processes*

We assess the ability of logit, probit and numerous other parametric models to test a hypothesis that two variables interact in influencing the probability that some event will occur [Pr(Y)] in what we believe is a very common situation: when one's theory is insufficiently strong to dictate a specific functional form for the data generating process. Using Monte Carlo analysis, we find that many models yield overconfident inferences by generating 95% confidence intervals for estimates of the strength of interaction that are far too narrow, but that some logit and probit models produce approximately accurate intervals. Yet all models we study generate point estimates for the strength of interaction with large enough average error to often distort substantive conclusions. We propose an approach to make the most effective use of logit and probit in the situation of specification uncertainty, but argue that nonparametric models may ultimately prove to be superior.     

Analyzing Predictors of Drinking and Driving among Gender Cohorts within a College Sample

The current study focuses on predominant predictors associated with men’s and women’s engagement in driving under the influence (DUI) in an attempt to determine whether gender-specific interventions would be more affective at reducing impaired vehicle operation. A male-only subsample (n?=?863) and a female-only subsample (n?=?975) from a survey administered at a large Southeastern university containing self-reported measures of DUI were used to evaluate gender differences in motivations and correlates of DUI behavior. A series of logistic regressions containing indicators drawn from theories of deviant behavior (e.g., Akers’ social learning theory (SLT) and Gottfredson and Hirshi’s low self-control (LSC) theory) yield results indicating that differential association and imitation, both factors associated with SLT, are significant predictors for both gender cohorts’ DUI behavior. Low self- control was a significant predictor within female-only models, but not the final male-only models. This suggests that peer associations and modeling may be targets of intervention generally, but that, as it relates to DUIs, women may particularly benefit from programs focused at limiting impulsivity and risk-taking behavior as these are components of Gottfredson and Hirschi’s LSC construct.     

Sex Estimation from Human Cranium: Forensic and Anthropological Interest of Maxillary Sinus Volumes

Sex estimation is a key objective of forensic science. We aimed to establish whether maxillary sinus volumes (MSV) could assist in estimating an individual's sex. One hundred and three CT scans were included. MSV were determined using three‐dimensional reconstructions. Two observers performed three‐dimensional MSV reconstructions using the same methods. Intra‐ and interobserver reproducibility were statistically compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) (α = 5%). Both intra‐ and interobserver reproducibility were perfect regarding MSV; both ICCs were 100%. There were no significant differences between right and left MSV (p = 0.083). No correlation was found between age and MSV (p > 0.05). We demonstrated the existence of sexual dimorphism in MSV (p < 0.001) and showed that MSV measurements gave a 68% rate of correct allocations to sex group. MSV measurements could be useful to support sex estimation in forensic medicine.     

Command-level Police Officers’ Perceptions of the “War on Cops” and De-policing

Policing has been the subject of intense public scrutiny for the better part of two years after several high-profile police killings of unarmed African Americans across the United States. The scrutiny has been so extreme that some contend there is currently a “war on cops”—whereby citizens are emboldened by protests and negative media coverage of the police, and are lashing out by assaulting police officers more frequently. In response, it is argued that officers are de-policing (i.e. avoiding proactive stops). We surveyed command-level police officers from a southeastern state about their attitudes concerning the war on cops and de-policing. The majority of our sample believed there has been a war on cops over the last two years. Moreover, officers who felt strongly about the existence of a war on cops were more likely to believe that de-policing is common among officers in today’s world of law enforcement.     

The Political Economy of Bad Data: Evidence from African Survey and Administrative Statistics

Abstract

Across multiple African countries, discrepancies between administrative data and independent household surveys suggest official statistics systematically exaggerate development progress. We provide evidence for two distinct explanations of these discrepancies. First, governments misreport to foreign donors, as in the case of a results-based aid programme rewarding reported vaccination rates. Second, national governments are themselves misled by frontline service providers, as in the case of primary education, where official enrolment numbers diverged from survey estimates after funding shifted from user fees to per pupil government grants. Both syndromes highlight the need for incentive compatibility between data systems and funding rules.     

Emphasis Framing and the Role of Perceived Knowledge: A Survey Experiment

The relationship between emphasis framing and public opinion has received considerable attention in political science, psychology, and mass communication studies. However, what moderating role perceived knowledge plays in influencing emphasis framing remains unsettled. We explore this relationship using a survey‐experiment embedded within a large‐N, nationally representative survey that allows us to test two specific hypotheses. First, we empirically test whether an emphasis frame influences policy support. Second, we test the moderating effect of perceived knowledge. We test the emphasis framing effects of the name given to a “hot‐button” political issue, while controlling for other survey treatments. Furthermore, we evaluate the degree to which perceived knowledge of the issue moderates the relationship between the emphasis frame and support for hydraulic fracturing. We find support both for the role emphasis framing plays and for perceived knowledge as a moderator.