Mixing Up

Increased interactions between groups of people through modernization may be embraced as mutually enriching or denounced as causing “negative social impacts.’ This paper is predicated on the assumption that people's perceptions of modernization projects influence their outcomes, because people resist rather than commit to negatively perceived projects. The nature of social contact brought about through modernization is a key factor in perceptions of modernization projects. Three types of social contact in a fishing joint venture between the Solomon Islands government and a Japanese company are explored in this paper: contact between men and women, between ethnic groups within Solomon Islands, and between Solomon Islanders and foreigners. Some of the criteria by which interviewees judged social contact included whether it was peaceful or caused friction, whether it caused cultural change, and whether it was hierarchical. The types of contact are discussed in terms of those criteria to reveal their varied effects on perceptions of modernization.     

The anonymous police blogger,the newspaper and the unmasking of Night Jack

The English High Court recently refused to grant an injunction to restrain The Times newspaper from publishing the identity of an anonymous political blogger (The author of a blog v Times Newspapers Limited [2009] EWHC 1358 (QB)). The facts of the case were unusual: there was no clearly unlawful behaviour by the blogger, who was also a police officer highly critical of political figures and policies. There was also no relationship between the blogger and the journalist who deduced the blogger's identity; the court therefore focussed on the tort of misuse of private information and countervailing public interests, such as freedom of expression. This article describes the approach of the court and considers the earlier case of Mahmood v Galloway ([2006] EWHC 1286 (QB)) concerning an undercover journalist's attempt to prevent publication of photographs showing what he looked like. It also discusses whether data protection law could have a role to play in future cases concerning attempts to preserve an online author's anonymity. The conclusion of the article is that this case does not spell the end of all anonymous blogging.     

Predictive Crime Mapping: Arbitrary Grids or Street Networks?

Objectives

Decades of empirical research demonstrate that crime is concentrated at a range of spatial scales, including street segments. Further, the degree of clustering at particular geographic units remains noticeably stable and consistent; a finding that Weisburd (Criminology 53:133–157, 2015) has recently termed the ‘law of crime concentration at places’. Such findings suggest that the future locations of crime should—to some extent at least—be predictable. To date, methods of forecasting where crime is most likely to next occur have focused either on area-level or grid-based predictions. No studies of which we are aware have developed and tested the accuracy of methods for predicting the future risk of crime at the street segment level. This is surprising given that it is at this level of place that many crimes are committed and policing resources are deployed.

Methods

Using data for property crimes for a large UK metropolitan police force area, we introduce and calibrate a network-based version of prospective crime mapping [e.g. Bowers et al. (Br J Criminol 44:641–658, 2004)], and compare its performance against grid-based alternatives. We also examine how measures of predictive accuracy can be translated to the network context, and show how differences in performance between the two cases can be quantified and tested.

Results

Findings demonstrate that the calibrated network-based model substantially outperforms a grid-based alternative in terms of predictive accuracy, with, for example, approximately 20 % more crime identified at a coverage level of 5 %. The improvement in accuracy is highly statistically significant at all coverage levels tested (from 1 to 10 %).

Conclusions

This study suggests that, for property crime at least, network-based methods of crime forecasting are likely to outperform grid-based alternatives, and hence should be used in operational policing. More sophisticated variations of the model tested are possible and should be developed and tested in future research.

     

Initiatives that Counter Violent Radicalization but are Perceived as Suitable by Targeted Communities

To redress the scourge of violent extremism, an array of policies, programs, and practices have been implemented. Yet, these initiatives could sometimes conflict with the preferences of individuals who may be susceptible to radicalization. To illustrate, some initiatives might challenge the values of these individuals. The degree to which these individuals feel significant or important might thus decrease—a decrease that has been shown to rouse the pursuit of violent radicalization. To prevent this complication, two studies were designed to uncover programs, policies, or practices that align to the preferences of people who may be more susceptible than average to violent radicalization. In Study 1, three individuals who had been charged with crimes related to terrorism, but had since relinquished extremism, were asked to suggest initiatives they feel could prevent violent radicalization in Australian Muslims. Similarly, in the second study, young Australian Muslim adults who rejected extremist ideologies were asked the same question. The participants advocated initiatives that foster tolerance towards diverse perspectives, inspire individuals to trust their values and intuition, encourage civic engagement, improve the credibility of imams, and enable people to derive strength from their community. A review of previous literature indicates that many of these initiatives might not only resonate with the preferences of individuals who may be vulnerable to violent extremism but could also foster a sense of significance and meaning in life—an experience that tends to prevent radicalization.     

Permeability and Burglary Risk: Are Cul-de-Sacs Safer?

That crime is concentrated in space is now accepted as commonplace. Explanations for why it clusters at particular locations are various reflecting the range of factors which are held to influence crime placement. In this article, we focus on the role of the permeability of the street network on the location of crime. We first review the research conducted hitherto, summarising the different approaches to analysis and the findings that have so far emerged. Then we present original analyses conducted at the street segment level to examine the issues at hand. In contrast to much of the prior research, in this study we examine the patterns for a large study area in which there is considerable variation in street network configuration. Moreover, and in contrast to all of the previous research, the approach to analysis takes into account the multi-level structure of the data analysed. The findings demonstrate that increased permeability is associated with elevated burglary risk, that burglary risk is lower on cul-de-sacs (particularly those that are sinuous in nature), and that the risk of burglary is higher on more major roads and those street segments that are connected to them. In the conclusion of the paper we outline an agenda for future research.