Dynamic systems simulation analysis: A planning tool for the new century

Dynamic systems simulation analysis is an analytical technique that allows for the modeling of complex, nonlinear systems. While this technique is currently not widely used in the social sciences or in criminal justice planning, the author argues that more attention should be given to these models in criminal justice. These models can be used in a variety of ways—to gain greater insight into processes of system change, to track the development of specific system populations (e.g., drug offenders, elderly offenders), and to estimate projected system growth and change over a variety of legislative and policy scenarios—making them useful tools for theoretical development and policy evaluation, as well as more pragmatic considerations such as program, facilities, and overall system planning. An overview of the methodology and some examples of analyses are presented.     

A profile of children with disabilities receiving SSI: highlights from the National Survey of SSI Children and Families

This article provides a nationally representative profile of noninstitutionalized children 0 to 17 years of age who were receiving support from the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program because of a disability. To assess the role of the SSI program in providing assistance to low-income children with disabilities and their families, it is important to obtain detailed information on demographic characteristics, income and assets, health and disabilities, and health care utilization. Yet administrative records of the Social Security Administration do not contain many of the relevant data items, and the records provide only an incomplete picture of the family relationships affecting the lives of children with disabilities. The National Survey of SSI Children and Families fills this gap. This summary article is based on survey interviews conducted between July 2001 and June 2002 and provides some highlights characterizing children with disabilities who were receiving SSI and their families. Most children receiving SSI (hereafter referred to as "SSI children") lived in a family headed by a single mother, and less than one in three lived with both parents. A very high proportion, about half, were living in a household with at least one other individual reported to have had a disability. About 70 percent of children received some kind of special education. SSI support was the most important source of family income, with earnings a close second. On average, SSI payments accounted for nearly half of the income for the children's families, and earnings accounted for almost 40 percent. When all sources of family income were considered, slightly more than half (54 percent) of SSI children lived in families above the poverty threshold, a notable fact given that the federal SSI program guarantees only a subpoverty level of income. However, beyond these averages there was substantial variation, with some children living in families with income well below the poverty threshold and others having income well over 200 percent of the poverty threshold. About one-third of SSI children lived in families owning a home, two-thirds lived with parents or guardians with at least one car, and about 40 percent lived with parents or guardians with zero liquid assets. Less than 4 percent lived with adults who owned stocks, mutual funds, notes, certificates of deposit, or savings bonds. The Social Security Administration's administrative records contain only a limited amount of information about disability diagnoses. The National Survey of SSI Children and Families supplements those records with data from an array of questions on functional limitations, self-reported health, and the perceived severity of disabilities. The data suggest that a great degree of variation in severity exists within the childhood caseload, as reflected in reports of the presence or absence of six functional limitations, perceived overall health status, and perceived impact of disability on the child's ability to do things. Overall, 36 percent of the children were reported to have had disabilities that affected their abilities to do things "a great deal," and for 21 percent their difficulties had very little or no impact. Physical disabilities were most common among children aged 0 to 5, and mental disabilities dominated the picture for the other two age groups: 6 to 12 and 13 to 17. Virtually all SSI children are covered by some form of health insurance, with Medicaid being by far the most common source of health insurance coverage. Just as in the case of the severity of disabilities, substantial variation was reported in health care utilization among SSI children. Almost 30 percent of children had two or fewer doctor visits during the 12 months preceding the interview, and close to 50 percent had five or more doctor visits. About four-fifths of the children had no reported hospitalizations or surgeries during the previous year. More than 40 percent of the children visited an emergency room during the previous year, most of them more than once. Importantly, no out-of-pocket costs associated with medical care were reported for more than two-thirds of the children, and only about 3 percent had annual expenses exceeding $1,000 for physical and mental health care. This finding suggests that SSI payments are not used to cover medical expenses for the overwhelming majority of children. The use of supportive therapies varied widely among SSI children: more than half reported having used physical, occupational, or speech therapy; only 8 percent used respite care for the parents or other family members. An analysis of the perception of the survey respondents shows that more than one-third of children had unmet needs for mental health counseling services, and about three-quarters of families had unmet needs for respite care. In several service categories, the proportion perceived to have had unmet service needs was around 10 percent or less. In the dominant service category of physical, occupational, and speech therapy, only 11 percent perceived to have had unmet service needs.     

Jocks, gender, binge drinking, and adolescent violence

Previous research has suggested a link between athletic involvement and elevated levels of adolescent violence outside the sport context. The present study expanded on this literature by positing differences in the sport-violence relationship across dimensions of athletic involvement (athletic participation vs. jock identity), type of violence (family vs. nonfamily), and gender as well as by examining the impact of binge drinking on the sport-violence relationship. Regression analyses using a sample of 608 Western New York adolescents indicated that (a) jock identity (but not athletic participation) was associated with more frequent violence, (b) jock identity predicted nonfamily violence (but not family violence), and (c) the link between jock identity and nonfamily violence was stronger for boys than for girls. Binge drinking predicted family violence among nonjocks only.     

Global change in microcosm: The case of U.S. water institutions

Water is a resource that already has been affected by some aspects of global change and whose availability in time and place may be substantially further altered by global warming. As human demands and impacts on water resources have increased, institutions governing water use have evolved in response to pressures exerted by competing resource users. The record of such institutional evolution and its implications for the impacts of environmental change on human welfare can provide a glimpse of issues that are likely to arise as other natural resources are increasingly subject to the effects of global environmental transformations. Efforts to manage multiple interdependent water uses present informative analogies to the general problem of managing the many interrelated aspects of global change.     

Unmarried Cohabitation and Parenthood in Britain and Europe

This paper focuses on cohabitation and unmarried parenthood across a range of European nations. It includes a brief outline of the history of cohabitation, reviews recent trends in cohabitation and unmarried parenthood, compares the stability of marital and cohabiting unions, examines the extent to which cohabiting couples are regarded as families, and the final sections include a review of the policy responses to date, as well as a discussion of the impetuses that may lie behind the rise in cohabitation and unmarried parenthood.     

Justifying controversial political decisions:Home style in the laboratory

Elected officials are not passive bystanders in the electoral process. Rather, they try to influence their constituents' perceptions of events through a variety of strategies, including explanations. Fenno's case studies reported inHome Style (1978) have yielded important insights into the explanations representatives provide to their constituents to account for unpopular or controversial decisions. This paper reports an experimental analysis of the effectiveness of two principled justifications taken from Fenno'sHome Style interviews: individualistic and communitarian appeals to conscience. We also present a theoretical framework for the anlaysis of political accounts, conceptualizing them as a type of persuasive communication. The impact of the two justifications on a number of important judgments is examined within this framework, including reactions to controversial policies, attributions of responsibility, perceptions of political character, and evaluations of public officials.     

Sleep disturbance in adolescents: Sleep quality,sleep habits,beliefs about sleep,and daytime functioning

This study examined the prevalence and correlates of sleep disturbance in adolescents. Two hundred seventy-seven 9th- and 10th-grade students completed a questionnaire on sleep quality, sleep habits, beliefs about sleep, and daytime mood and functioning. Based on their responses, subjects were classified as good sleepers (66%), occasional poor sleepers (23%), and chronic poor sleepers (11%). Occasional and chronic poor sleepers reported being significantly more depressed, without energy, tense, moody, and irritable and less rested and alert than good sleepers. They were also more likely to describe themselves negatively. However, poor sleepers were not consistently more tired than good sleepers. Rather, they tended to be least tired in the evening, the time when most good sleepers reported feeling tired. There were few differences in the sleep habits and beliefs about sleep of good and poor sleepers. All subjects reported shifts in bedtimes and waketimes from weekdays to weekends, with occasional and chronic poor sleepers showing a tendency toward greater shifts, a possible factor contributing to their sleep disturbance. Occasional and chronic poor sleepers also reported more observable behaviors and feelings of stress than good sleepers. The need for early intervention with particular attention to teaching adolescents about good sleep habits and the need for stable bedtimes and waketimes and the possibility of joint intervention on daytime stress and sleeping problems are discussed.     

Gender differences in self-reported moral reasoning: A review and new evidence

Sixty-four undergraduates wrote responses to the question, “When faced with a moral dilemma, what issues or concerns influence your decision?” The responses were coded according to one or more of 13 themes by independent raters blind to the subjects' gender. Six of the themes were identified as “feminine” themes and seven as “masculine” themes on the basis of previous work by Gilligan ([1982],In a Different Voice, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts), Kohlberg ([1976], “Moral Stages and Moralization: The Cognitive-Developmental Approach,” in Lickona, T. [ed.],Moral Development and Behavior: Theory, Research, and social Issues, Holt, Rinehart and Winston, New York), and others. Only one association between gender and the presence of any given theme reached statistical significance: Thus, there is little evidence to support the idea that men and women differ in their reports of how they think about moral dilemmas. For all subjects, the average proportion of possible feminine themes in a response was higher than the proportion of possible masculine themes. This finding supports the idea than an exclusive focus on themes such as rights and responsibilities will fail to capture many of the considerations all subjects regard as most important.