Development of a simulation model to assess the impact of contamination in casework using STRs

Because contamination is usually tube-specific, negative controls cannot give assurance that an associated batch of extracted casework material is contaminant-free. However, it is possible to use them to predict the level of overall (undetected) contamination that is processed by an operational DNA unit. A MATLAB-based program was used to combine results of negative controls with actual casework DNA profiles to assess the probability that laboratory contaminants will give rise to reportable profiles (along with their likelihood ratios). Using data from an operational DNA unit as an example, it was demonstrated that the risk is inextricably linked to guidelines used to interpret DNA profiles. We have demonstrated how computer-based models can predict the levels of contamination expected in the process and, in addition, how the process can be made more robust by changing reporting guidelines. There is a need to compare DNA profiles against staff and plasticware elimination databases in order to determine sources of contamination. The likeliest outcome of a contamination event is false exclusion.     

Bodies found in the waterways of New York City

We reviewed the case records for all decedents recovered from the waterways of New York City over a three year period (1997-2000). The epidemiological profile, circumstances, toxicology findings, putrefactive changes, date of recovery, length of immersion, and injuries were examined. There were 123 deaths: 52 suicides, 50 undetermined, 16 accidents, and five homicides. The causes of death included: 97 drownings, 13 undetermined, and 13 other. Of all the floating decedents, 27% were without putrefactive change. All found after two or more weeks of immersion were recovered from November to May. The detection of ethanol and illicit drugs was 53% in the accident, 41% in the suicide, and 33% in the undetermined groups. Detection of ethanol and/or drugs of abuse is not a reliable criterion to distinguish suicide from accident. The identification of the deceased is pivotal for determining the manner of these deaths. Therefore, a great reliance is placed upon the medical investigator and the police (including the missing persons bureau) to determine the circumstances and identification of the decedent.     

Fatal descent from height in New York City

All deaths due to descent from height that underwent autopsy at the Manhattan Office of Chief Medical Examiner of New York City over a two year period (1997-1999) were reviewed. The scene and autopsy findings, psychiatric history, and toxicology results were examined. There were 120 deaths: 77 suicides, 36 accidents, 5 undetermined, and 2 homicides. Psychiatric illness was reported in 86% of suicides. The toxicological detection of psychiatric medications supports the high percentage of psychiatric disease in the suicide group. In the accidental group, the detection of ethanol and illicit drugs was higher (36%) than expected from the case investigation and similar to the suicide group (29%). Accidental falls by women made up fewer than 3% of all manners. Due to the variation in the extent of injuries, it is unwise to attempt to conclude how high a person descended based on the autopsy findings. Descents into water commonly have minimal findings on external examination with marked internal injuries. The methods of investigation and criteria for death certification using the study results are discussed.     

Working hard on the outside: a multimodal critical discourse analysis of The Biggest Loser Australia

The Biggest Loser (TBL) is a reality television weight-loss programme that positions itself as a response to the so-called “obesity crisis”. Research on TBL has thus far focussed on audience responses and its effect on viewers’ beliefs about weight loss. This article focuses instead on how meaning is constructed in TBL. We conducted a multimodal critical discourse analysis of a key episode of TBL (the 2012 Australian season finale) to examine how the textual, visual and auditory elements combine to construct meanings beyond the ostensible health messages. Although the overt message is that all contestants have worked hard, turned their lives around and been “successful”, examination of editing choices, lighting and colour, clothing and time spent on contestants allows us to see that the programme constructs varying degrees of success between contestants and provides accounts for these differences in outcomes. In this way the programme is able to present itself as a putative celebration of all contestants while prescribing narrow limits around what constitutes success. TBL reinforces an ideology in which “success” is a direct result of “the work” of weight loss (both physical and emotional), which can apparently be read straightforwardly off the body. TBL’s “celebration” of weight loss thus reproduces and strengthens the widespread view of fat bodies as physical manifestations of individual (ir)responsibility and psychological dysfunction, and contributes to the ongoing stigmatisation of obesity.     

Counterterrorism Killings and Provisional IRA Bombings, 1970–1998

Counterterrorism strategies involving the killing of terrorists are a prominently used but controversial practice. Proponents argue that such strategies are useful tools for reducing terrorist activity, while critics question their effectiveness. This article provides empirical insight into this strategy by conducting a series of negative binomial regression and Tobit estimations of the impact of killing Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) terrorists as well as members of the Catholic community on counts of PIRA bombings and targeting activity in Northern Ireland for the period 1970–1998. We consider the impact of discriminate and indiscriminate killings (where only PIRA militants are killed versus those in which both militants and civilians are also killed) on subsequent PIRA improvised explosive device (IED) attacks. Our findings illustrate that while total and discriminate counterterrorism killings have little to no effect on PIRA IED attacks, indiscriminate counterterrorism killings increased PIRA bombings overall and prompted the Provisional IRA to specifically target civilians in IED events. We conclude by discussing the scholarly and policy implications of these findings.     

The Base Rate Study: Developing Base Rates for Risk Factors and Indicators for Engagement in Violent Extremism

Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone-actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a lone-actor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. Results suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone-actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor “predicts” violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism.