Of Time and the Development of Partisan Polarization

In this article we address the topic of increasing partisan polarization in the American mass public, focusing on the twin influences of individual-level development and cohort replacement and the interaction between the two. We posit a model of individual development that consists of declining openness to change beyond young adulthood, an increase in party-issue constraint as age advances, and cohort-specific responsiveness to changes in the partisan environment. Results from a long-term panel study provide initial evidence of these dynamics. We then use simulations to generate expectations about how these developmental processes play out across cohorts, issues, and time. These expectations are evaluated through a cohort analysis of National Election Studies data from 1972 to 2004. Overall, our results provide a new perspective on the dynamics of individual political development and their implications for the timing, extent, and future trajectory of partisan polarization in the U.S. electorate.     

The governance of global security and development: convergence,divergence and coherence

This paper discusses the gaps in the present international system that in the final analysis threaten the objectives of conflict management. It asks if there is the interest and institutional will within the international community to close such gaps. It poses this challenge from the perspective of coherence. As noted in companion pieces to this study, the concept of coherence has at least four inter-related and complementary dimensions, i.e. internal, whole of government, harmonisation and alignment.     

Examining the relationship between religiosity and self-control as predictors of prison deviance

The relationship between religiosity and crime has been the subject of much empirical debate and testing over the past 40 years. Some investigators have argued that observed relationships between religion and crime may be spurious because of self-control, arousal, or social control factors. The present study offers the first investigation of religiosity, self-control, and deviant behavior in the prison context. We use survey data from a sample of 208 recently paroled male inmates to test the impact of religiosity and self-control on prison deviance. The results indicate that two of the three measures of religiosity may be spurious predictors of prison deviance after accounting for self-control. Participation in religious services is the only measure of religiosity to significantly reduce the incidence of prison deviance when controlling for demographic factors, criminal history, and self-control. We conclude with implications for future studies of religiosity, self-control, and deviance in the prison context.     

Complex mixtures: A critical examination of a paper by Homer et al.

DNA evidence in criminal cases may be challenging to interpret if several individuals have contributed to a DNA-mixture. The genetic markers conventionally used for forensic applications may be insufficient to resolve cases where there is a small fraction of DNA (say less than 10%) from some contributors or where there are several (say more than 4) contributors. Recently methods have been proposed that claim to substantially improve on existing approaches [1]. The basic idea is to use high-density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping arrays including as many as 500,000 markers or more and explicitly exploit raw allele intensity measures. It is claimed that trace fractions of less than 0.1% can be reliably detected in mixtures with a large number of contributors. Specific forensic issues pertaining to the amount and quality of DNA are not discussed in the paper and will not be addressed here. Rather our paper critically examines the statistical methods and the validity of the conclusions drawn in Homer et al. (2008) [1].We provide a mathematical argument showing that the suggested statistical approach will give misleading results for important cases. For instance, for a two person mixture an individual contributing less than 33% is expected to be declared a non-contributor. The quoted threshold 33% applies when all relative allele frequencies are 0.5. Simulations confirmed the mathematical findings and also provide results for more complex cases. We specified several scenarios for the number of contributors, the mixing proportions and allele frequencies and simulated as many as 500,000 SNPs.A controlled, blinded experiment was performed using the Illumina GoldenGate^® 360 SNP test panel. Twenty-five mixtures were created from 2 to 5 contributors with proportions ranging from 0.01 to 0.99. The findings were consistent with the mathematical result and the simulations.We conclude that it is not possible to reliably infer the presence of minor contributors to mixtures following the approach suggested in Homer et al. (2008) [1]. The basic problem is that the method fails to account for mixing proportions.     

Fighting back: Lethal responses to predatory attacks

Each year millions of Americans become victims of predatory crimes. The way victims respond to these attacks varies from complicance with offenders' requests to physically challenging offenders. In some cases, the physical defense of self and property has lethal consequences for the initial offender. While much is known about felony murder victims and typical homicide offenders, little is known about individuals who fight back against predatory attack by using lethal violence. In this paper, we use data from the Homicides in Chicago, 1965–1995 study to describe the characteristics of defensive homicide offenders and to determine how they compare with felony murder victims and defensive homicide offenders. Our results indicate that defensive homicide offenders are more similar to typical homicide offenders than felony murder victims, and are even more likely to have violent criminal histories and to use firearms than typical homicide offenders. Our results challenge the common perception that individuals who fight back against predatory attack are simply “law-abiding citizens.” We conclude the paper with a discussion of the implications of our study for additional research and police practice. Authors' Note: The authors thank editor Dennis Stevens and James Black for their helpful comments on earlier draft of the paper.     

The processing and disposition of incompetent mentally ill offenders

Pretrial hospitalization of mentally ill offenders has been increasing in recent years and a number of abuses have been noted with respect to competency to stand trial. This is a report on 431 male felony defendants who were found incompetent to stand trial, hospitalized, and returned to court for a final disposition. Approximately one-half of those brought back to the court gained release to the community, with one-half continuing to be held in a hospital or a prison, and with 70% continuing in treatment in one setting or another. Disposition was significantly related to race, criminal history, severity of charges, and the recommendations of mental health professionals. Offenders were found to have spent unnecessarily long periods of time in jail and in the hospital awaiting court processing, raising questions about the fairness and efficiency of current procedures.     

The Children Act 1989: Some implications for management and practice

Conclusion Given that the Government has accepted much of the research evidence as indicative of poor performance of local authorities in making and implementing plans for helping children and families, and of the unwillingness or inability to involve parents and children in identifying needs, it is clear that some authorities will need to engage in a major re-think of policies, procedures and practices. Moreover, the idea of a mixed economy culture may be a difficult pill to swallow but the medicine must be taken. It is evident from the account presented here that much will be gained by authorities undertaking an audit utilising not only the provisions of the Act but also an appreciation of developments which have influenced its form.Whether one agrees with its philosophy or not the Children Act 1989 represents a very clear statement of Government intentions. All concerned with the care and upbringing of children should take it seriously. Paradoxically, while encouraging private ordering, its success in promoting and safeguarding the welfare of children may only be measured through the resolution in court of conflicts between families and public authorities about what constitutes good parenting. That these issues raise ideological and economic questions, particularly about the availability of services, should not divert us from the clear messages in the legislation.General Editor. Principal Lecturer in Law, Liverpool Polytechnic.